Politics

What Happened: Since Myanmar’s military seized control of the capital in a February 2021 coup, the ousted democratically elected government has reformed itself – in alliance with major ethnic organizations – into the National Unity Government. But can the NUG actually govern? For International IDEA, democratic governance expert Philipp Annawitt led a team that mapped the NUG’s capacities and needs to try and answer that question.

Our Focus: “For our assessment, we reviewed a number of NUG strategic documents, engaged with most of its ministries, spoke to its ethnic nationality allies, and looked at life in communities,” Annawitt writes for The Diplomat. “My verdict is: Yes, the NUG can govern, if it maintains its unity and coherence and receives more support from outside.” In more detail, he acknowledges that the NUG’s capacity to prevent atrocities by the military remains limited, and its funding constraints hamper services provision. That said, “The NUG now controls significant territory, commands the loyalty of the overwhelming majority of its people, and provides security and justice in the areas under its control.”

What Comes Next: Annawitt notes that the NUG provides a workable blueprint for the future federal structure of Myanmar – something that could, if implemented, end internal conflicts that have raged since Myanmar’s independence. It is “developing a transitional federal constitution that will lay the path to turn Myanmar into a highly decentralized liberal democracy with a separation of powers and guarantees for fundamental rights and freedoms.” The question now, Annawitt writes, is whether the world powers, especially the United States and China, are willing to accept the NUG as Myanmar’s legitimate political future. If so, international engagement needs to start now.

INTERVIEW

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Northeast Asia

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South Asia

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Southeast Asia

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Central Asia

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Environment

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