Security

What Happened: In 2017, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) opened its first overseas military facilities in Djibouti. Ever since, there have been rumors and speculation that China is pursuing more overseas military bases – in up to 18 different countries, according to the U.S. Department of Defense. It’s likely that at least some of these plans will be realized in the future, but two U.S. analysts argue that the threat to U.S. security is overblown.

Our Focus: Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Howard Wang, both analysts with RAND Corporation, conducted an extensive analysis of Chinese language writings by PLA strategists. Their conclusion: “leading PLA researchers do not believe China has a near-term capability to secure its overseas bases, much less use them to conduct offensive operations against the United States.” In addition to concerns about its ability to defend overseas bases, China also would likely be reluctant to commit key offensive assets overseas. Instead, PLA strategists envision these bases as a way to enhance its standing in great power competition, by increasing its ability to conduct sea lane patrols and evacuation operations for civilians.

What Comes Next: Beauchamp-Mustafaga and Howard Wang note that the correct perception of the threat is critical to formulate an effective U.S. response. “Given the scope of Chinese ambitions for overseas basing… it is very unlikely that Washington will be able to prevent all new overseas bases going forward,” they conclude. “That means the United States will have to learn to live with Chinese military troops deployed abroad and operating near U.S. forces.”

INTERVIEW

Amitabh Mathur, co-founder of DeepStrat, a think tank in New Delhi, and a former advisor on Tibetan Affairs in India’s Home Ministry, on signs of a shift in India’s Tibet policy: “Considering the stand taken of late by the Indian government on relations with Taiwan and the South China Sea dispute, it does seem to point to a more aggressive posture towards China and a more proactive stance on Tibet. The Tibetans seem to have interpreted it like that.”

Northeast Asia

During “2+2” meetings this week, Japan and the United States announced new steps to further their military integration, including a long-awaited reorganization to strengthen command and control coordination between the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ). It was a big week for Japan-U.S. relations; the two countries also held a trilateral defense ministers’ meeting with their South Korean counterpart and participated in a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting, along with India and Australia.

South Asia

Protests broke out across Pakistan this week. In Islamabad and Lahore, thousands gathered to decry massive spikes in their electricity bills – a move the government says is necessary to meet the conditions of its latest IMF bailout. Jamaat-e-Islami, which organized the protests, vowed to remain on the streets until its demands are met. In southwestern Balochistan, meanwhile, protests were motivated by longer-standing issues of police violence and the marginalization of the local Baloch population. Meanwhile, the government continues to squeeze the main opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

Southeast Asia

The United Wa State Army (UWSA), Myanmar’s largest ethnic armed group, this week deployed its forces into the city of Lashio in northern Shan State, amid fierce fighting between the Myanmar military and allied resistance forces. The UWSA claims that it will remain in the city in a peacekeeping capacity, and reportedly arrived at the military junta’s request, to shore up the latter’s military’s deteriorating position in Shan State. The deployment came after the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) claimed that it had overrun the Myanmar military’s Northeast Regional Command in Lashio, a city of 170,000 that sits on the country’s main trade route with China. The MNDAA has since claimed that it is on verge of establishing its full control of the city. Given that the UWSA has mostly remained on the sidelines of Myanmar’s post-coup conflict, its move could potentially augment its influence and enlarge the territories under its control, with profound implications for the current civil war – and the future political landscape of Myanmar’s largest state.

Central Asia

Uzbekistan’s election authorities have set a date for the country’s next parliamentary polls: October 27. Uzbeks will cast ballots for the 150-member Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis under a new mixed electoral system, as well as for regional councils and more than 200 hundred district councils. No new political parties have managed to achieve registration despite reforms. Over the past five years, since the last election in 2019, the parliament has been more active, but not any more dynamic than in the Karimov era. The Oliy Majlis continues to reflect presidential prerogatives.

A still from a video shared widely on social media shows Abu Sayed, a student at Begum Rokeya University, in the moment before he was fatally shot by Bangladesh police. It’s become an iconic symbol of the student protests and brutal crackdown that rocked the country.

Politics

Jīngjì jiànshè wéi zhōngxīn, Mandarin for “economic development as the central task.” The line has been official CCP doctrine since the Deng Xiaoping era – until now.