By The Diplomat
The Diplomat speaks with Korea analyst L. Gordon Flake about this week’s artillery exchange between North and South Korea.
The shelling by North Korea yesterday of the South Korean border island of Yeonpyeong is being described by many as one of the most serious incidents since the end of the Korean War. How much of an escalation would you say yesterday’s exchange of fire marks?
It’s a very serious escalation in what has been a series of provocations. The reason why people are more concerned about this than previous incidents such as ship-to-ship firing or firing out into the open ocean is because artillery shells were directed at an actual military base, resulting in South Korean service members being killed and, perhaps most troubling, civilians being killed. The images that one sees now of burning houses and an island with plumes of smoke rising skyward are alarming to say the least.
In a broader context, of course North Korea disputes the Northern Limit Line, and this dispute could be viewed as an inter-Korean clash. But this is a line that has been in existence for 60 years and South Korea has undertaken military exercises on a very regular basis. So there was clearly a decision on the part of North of Korea to escalate the situation in an extremely troubling way.
I’d also point out a very important contrast between this and what happened with the Cheonan in March. When the Cheonan was sunk, it was done at night and in stormy weather—there was a lot of ambiguity about what had happened and who had done it. As a result, I think the government in South Korea showed a remarkable degree of forbearance in conducting a methodical and international investigation before moving forward, and even then moving forward in a very careful way.
This time, I don’t think President Lee Myung-bak and his administration have that same luxury in that there’s no question about where the artillery shells came from, there’s no question in terms of the impact on the lives of those living on the island and the fact that you now have refugees from the immediate damage. And so there’s going to be tremendous demand for a rather immediate physical response. The challenge, of course, is that they are faced with a North Korea that has threatened an immediate escalation, and so it’s difficult to know how to respond to the damage done to your country and the lives lost and yet not be precipitous.
Is there any indication at all as to why North Korea chose this moment to escalate? Could the succession issue have played any part?
It’s always a dangerous thing to try and put yourself in North Korea’s shoes to try and explain their behaviour. I’m always aware of the fact that there’s an ongoing dialogue on an inter-Korean basis that we’re not always privy to. So on one level, this is an inter-Korean issue on a long-standing dispute and the North Koreans will, and already have, argued that this was an exercise that was firing into North Korean waters.
Photo Credit: Kok Leng Yeo
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meckjoo
I found the diplomat today – really enjoy the ezine, but am a bit shocked by some of the comments I see on here.
I enjoy academic discourse, but propaganda from either side should be kept to a minimum folks!
Huang
Each day gone by,the revelations of the respective motives or wishes of the US,S.Korea,and Japan are becoming clearer. South Korea’s on again off again naval drills with the US were to seek international attentions and at the same time to divert attentions from critical domestic issues. Japan’s motive is to demonstrate to both China and Russia it has a big boss standing behind to help it on the island disputes. The US’s wish is to take advantage of the tense and disruptive regional tensions to re-claim its perceived-deteriating influences(which the US no longer affort to keep and maintain with its current economic conditions). S.Korea and Japan were and are spending huge sums of money on these exercises in a uni-directional fashion which do not improve or benifit their respective domestic economies. All dreams and fantasies will end with sobering reality shocks and the shocks in this case will be the continued peace and stability of the region successfully defended and maintained by China’s unswayable efforts and determinations. The current S.Korean leader and his Japanese counterpart have under-estimated China’s ability to keep the peace and promote stability of the North East Asia region.
N Koreans are only defending their sovereignty
All these western pundits seem all too self-immersed with their own western-centric interpretation of the Korean conundrum that alas, their narratives are way way off the actual mark. It is time that, perhaps for world peace sake, some enlightened individual or group of highly learned people with an open mind, must righteously rise to the occasion to present an accurately true picture from the East Asian perspective in general & Chinese/N Korean in particular on this subject. For this purpose, I would like to re-quote a letter posted on Asia Times Online by Mr hardy Campell as follows:
The WonderPundits are all atwitter about how China may not be in “control” of North Korea. Frothing-mouth Fox News foreign policy “experts” (who would have trouble finding their own derrieres with both hands and a map) are wondering just how much China can “manage” North Korea’s warlike actions. That, of course, comes from a nation accustomed to having its own foreign stooge-puppet governments kowtowing to our every corporo-imperialist whim.
The idea that our perceived adversaries would be unable to manipulate at will their own “allies” is incomprehensible to a nation accustomed to routinely infringing and abusing the sovereignty of other countries.
What Americans typically ignore is history and its continuing effect on Sino-Korean relations. Whereas Americans call the war fought between 1950 and 1953 on the Korean Peninsula the Korean War, for what seems obvious reasons, the same conflict is still formally identified in China as “The War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea”. That characterization signified a twofold mission; assisting a like-minded ideological neighbor and demonstrating to the Anglo-Saxon imperialist powers that a New World day had dawned, that this New China wasn’t going to be bullied or intimidated like its corrupt predecessors.
The tremendous sacrifices that the nascent People’s Republic made in order to expel that old imperialist MacArthur from North Korea accomplished numerous objectives that the Chinese recall with fondness to this day.
Firstly, the act of fraternal assistance helped wipe clean the memories of the old Middle Kingdom domination of its smaller neighbors and showed the world that the new China would respect the newfound national independence of its former satrapies.
Secondly, it provided a unifying bogeyman that the country, devastated by decades of foreign and civil war, needed to rally against (surely something American neo-cons can appreciate.) Thirdly, it offered Mao Zedong an opportunity to show Stalin and the world communist movement that devotion to Marxist-Leninist world revolution could reside just as easily in China as with its Slavic benefactor, an action that would ultimately splinter the relationship between the two.
Fourth, the establishment of North Korea would act as a buffer between China and a Japan firmly in the grip of the new threat to world socialism, the US. Finally, by going toe-to-toe with this new white enemy, so recently the victor in a global two-front war and possessing atomic weapons as well as the greatest technological arsenal in history, China showed the colored peoples oppressed by existing European colonizers that the non-white races could successfully resist the once-supreme Caucasian.
But more importantly, as a corollary to this success, a confident “Can Do” mentality was created that made all things seem possible to Chairman Mao and his revolutionary followers. This national myth spurred the overconfidence of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, followed by a taut confrontation with its former Korean War ally, the USSR. But a subsequent reconciliation with the US opened the door to the creation of a vibrant and soon-to-be-supreme 21st century society that has the economic cojones of its old Korean War foe and Cold War ally firmly in its hands. China’s patience with its rambunctious, tottering comrades across the Yalu also serves to keep an overextended America anxious about The Next Inevitable War.
So China’s deference to North Korea’s whimsies is historic, nostalgic and pragmatic, all at the same time. However, they might have suggested to Pyongyang that they use the excuse of shelling WMD sites as a palliative to the imperialists that even they can surely understand.
Hardy Campbell
United States (Nov 29, ’10)
ASEAN
It is amusing to read your version of history as if taken directly from a North Korean/Chinese propaganda page. It is hardly called ‘defensive’ when North Korea was the first to open up the Korean War and invaded South Korea with the backing of the Soviets and Chinese Communists. Without a United Nation effort, led by U.S. forces, South Korea would have been lost… Half a century later, North Korea still wants to invade again. Without a committed U.S. presence, it would have happened long ago.
huang
Now that we know which party or parties(North East Asia)bear the costs and losses in the event a tragic crisis materialized on the Korean peninsular and the party(the US)anxiously waiting to collect the spoils of its creation. Lets explore some of the positive or rational approaches S.Korea’s people should bear in mind-unlike West Germany,South Korea may not be able to suddenly absorb the massive influx of migrants from the North in the aftermath of a N.Korean regime collapsed. The US does not care or bother to have this as a plan within its ambition. The US is used to do things in other distant lands with itself only in the whole context,others are not worth considering. Its the “me-only or we-only”policy the US carried out in each of its foreign advantures since it rise to primacy(since the end of World War II). Both South and North Korea should be calm and rational,especially the S.Korean people(beware of Mr.Lee and his associates,they are a threats to the status-quo and blinded by their shortsightedness). The only way to go forward is to let time and natural forces do the difficult work. At the same time,both North and South Korea should work harder to maintain a stable and peaceful environment under which conditions will favor gradual and sustain bonds between the two brothers seperated only by outside meddlings. Its time for the people of S.Korea to voice their wish to have the US force removed from their land. Humanity no longer afford to allow old imperial ambitions or hegemonic fantasies that cause harms and miseries to the lands or people any more. What N.Korea needs is sincere helps from the South,not any shortsighted ambitions that promise destructions to both. Time will help put the pieces together if the US is willing to do the right thing,the basic human thing by staying out of the situation for a change.
Steven Douglas
Huang, you are very much mistaken if, at this particular time, you think the majority of South Koreans want the U.S. out. As an American living here in Seoul, I’d like to see our soldiers out in the near future. I’ve seen spells of increased Korean public sentiment wanting the U.S. gone over the past 12 years. This is certainly not one of them.
J.Nguyen
@ASEAN
You wrote:”…Huang and Orwell sound like propaganda mouthpiece for the North Korean propaganda machine, if not China’s…”
Why is it that only one sided OPINION is taken to be indisputable fact and any other dissenting voice is ridiculed as being “propaganda mouthpiece”? Are you sure what’s being reported by the West is accurate? How do you know? If you have no absolute first hand (I emphasize ‘first hand’) information for saying what you said, you are simply expressing an opinion. If this is your opinion, then yours is just as good or just as bad as everyone else’s. I am no fan of North Korea but I am of the opinion (not facts, just an opinion) that it’s possible and even probable that South Korea and the US were in bed together to create the conditions for the North to take the bait in their ongoing efforts to destabilize the Pennisula as a way to contain China. The Chinese have been complaining about recent military drills but the US and South Korea use the same old and tired excuse that says that we have been doing this for years so there’s nothing new here, but the key changes to these military drills have been ‘intensity, scale and proximity.’ These are what I meant ‘creating the conditions’ for the other side to take the bait. The fact remains – nobody knows. See, I have my opinion, but I am humble enough to make a point of emphasis that that’s just my opinion, it’s NOT fact, because I don’t really know the truth. And I will condemn those who are not in the know and who do not possess first hand information but pretend to know the truth.
ASEAN
Do learn a bit of history and North Korea’s long list of provocations before you start making comments. Just think the fact that S. Korea during the time of shelling incidence was still sending aid to N. Korea and you would learn a few thing about this beligerent country. Calling S. Korea and the U.S. in bed together is so ignorant of the truth. North Korea presents no benefits for neither the U.S. nor South Korea, and nobody wants war when the end results would mean a devastated East Asia.
JNguyen
@ASEAN
“Do learn a bit of history and North Korea’s long list of provocations before you start making comments.”
***Whose version of history do I need to learn? Since when you have been appointed the arbiter of knowledge on this issue?
“Calling S. Korea and the U.S. in bed together is so ignorant of the truth.”
***Again, whose version of the ‘truth’ am I ignorant of? On what basis that your own version is ‘the truth”? How do you know you have the ‘truth’? Because you said so!!! Do you realize how ridiculous your line of reasoning is?
“North Korea presents no benefits for neither the U.S. nor South Korea, and nobody wants war when the end results would mean a devastated East Asia.”
***I disagree. North Korea does present a golden opportunity for the US to pursue its policy of encircling and demonizing China internationally, to boost arms sales to the region to help reduce domestic unemployment and to achieving its ultimate goal of containing China’s rise in the longer run. As far as the US is concerned, North Korea is a means to an end and the end goal for the US is China, not North Korea. For sure I am no fan of North Korea and I actually have more sympathy for South Korea. They are caught between a rock and a hard place because they have no choice but must get in bed with the US. I don’t think the US wants to start a war in Asia, but it’s probable that creating tensions in the region, but not to the point of actually causing a war to start, is the real art of geopolitical strategy that the US is quite capable of playing.
ASEAN
You don’t have to pretend as if you know nothing on this matter. It is a matter of choice for what you want to believe. There are many versions of history, written by the victors and losers alike. You don’t even have to believe what I wrote. Everything started when North Korea launched the invasion of the South in 1953… Get it?
BernieMc
Having discussed this situation with quite a few of China’s political cadres, I see a different scenario. The question is; If North Korea decides that it has China’s backing for an all-out war, will the US bring the full weight of its’ military in backing South Korea. It is an interesting question because China and Russia would be delighted to see a communist take-over of Korea. Next, of course, would be Taiwan (one way or another) and that would leave a very vulnerable Japan. End result – an end to the US Pacific fleet in North East Asia.
ASEAN
Huang and Orwell sound like propaganda mouthpiece for the North Korean propaganda machine, if not China’s. North Korea under Kim Young Il has become the joke of the world. It is utter ignorant to put the blame on South Korea and the US. IF anything, China should put a leash on the mad dog in its backyard that is North Korea.
Joe Oleske
There is one fact the is indisputable. Tensions in the Korean Pinnensula have been escalating alarmingly for the past decade. Both countries have been baring their teeth at one another for decades. The North has now launched an artillery barrage into South Korean territory. The south must respond, in kind, in order to deter further aggression and show strength and resolve. The failure to do so immediately has revealed weakness and division within the South Korean military and political leadership.
What will the South’s response be, and how will the North react? Time will tell how the two dependents of China and the U.S. will respond.
Perhaps the United States should evacuate it’s forces from the peninsula and allow the South Koreans, the Taiwanese and other South Asian democracies to fend for for themselves. The loss of heavy manufacturing, tech and shipbuilding would be balanced by Japan and the Philippines.
The United States cannot afford this conflict; China will not purchase the T-Bills in order to pay for it. Rather then pledge our commitment to an effort that the U.S. lacks the resources or resolve to fight, why not re-examine our strategic alliances across the globe?
ASEAN
Don’t be fooled by the media hyped notion that China “owned” the U.S. While it is factual that they do own nearly $1 trillion of U.S. treasury bills, but that equates to about 6% of U.S. total debts. In essence, not very significant. China needs to watch out for the North Koreans who have become more a liability than beneficial for China.
Orwell: War is Peace
@Huang excellent comment. Thanks.
As for this article, piece of idiocy and warmongering. I just stumble upon your site and have no idea who this guy is, but degree of the propaganda and above all lie is stunning.
Just couple glaring points among others.
“…South Korea showed a remarkable degree of forbearance in conducting a methodical and international investigation before moving forward, and even then moving forward in a very careful way.”
There is nothing that they have shown. They (RoSC and US) faked evidence of the sinking, yet it is scandalous in way that they presented it. The fact that this operation of sinking is negligence or deliberate provocation is well known (or maybe not) and widely available. Do you remember Gulf of Tonkin incident.
“…this could be seen as a diversionary tactic, to divert the attention of the world away from the enrichment programme and at the same time giving a clear warning that North Korea is a very dangerous place.”
This is even more blatant lie, “to divert” a what? Those information are widely available for example: http://www.ncnk.org/resources/publications/HeckerYongbyonfin.doc
As I said just couple of points. As for this site, I wish you good luck, but with this type of infos…you are on the way of FOX channel. Is it that you want? On the other hand I’m wondering, where the funds are coming from?
Huang
The only losers in the whole show are North Korea,South Korea,and the North East Asian region(China,Russia,and Japan). The US and some of its friends or relatives are adding fuel to a tiny spark in the hope of creating instabilities and losses to the whole region. The reluctant to re-start the six-party talk,the pattern of continual naval and air exercises around the Korean peninsular clearly explain or demonstrate the true ill-intentions some sectors in the US and its S.Korean accomplices determine to do just for the sake of creating harms in all manners possible. It does not require much to see what the US’s intentions are,its in plain sight. The relentless cunning acts of mis-informing(News organizations speaking or reporting on one-sided un-truthful fabricated story)the World ,and the constant taunting(shellings close to N.Korea)to trigger a N.Korean responds on the other front should be enough to see who is the provocators in the situation. After all,any disasters resulting from these S.Korean foolishness is confined to the North East Asia region,while the US plus a few of its crooked relatives just sit back and watch the show at the expense of North East Asia. The current S.Korean government has proven itself to be the greatest liability to Korean people in particular and the region as a whole.