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Flashpoints

Will China’s military rival the United States’ in the Pacific? Will Japan abandon the constitutional fetters on its own military? How will India respond to the String of Pearls strategy? The Diplomat has put together a team of leading analysts to offer must-read, regular commentary on the big defense and security issues in the Asia-Pacific.

How the US Could Undermine Its Biggest Advantage Over China

How the US Could Undermine Its Biggest Advantage Over China

By Antonio José Pagán Sánchez
The U.S. alliance network is its greatest advantage in the competition with China. But Washington can hardly count on its allies if it treats them worse than the way it treats its systemic rival.

US Tech Companies Embrace AI ‘Arms Race’ With China – and the Money It Brings

US Tech Companies Embrace AI ‘Arms Race’ With China – and the Money It Brings

By Shannon Hong
U.S. tech CEOs have a clear financial interest in hyping the AI arms race, and the Trump administration is inclined to agree with that framing. 
The Next Phase of the China-US Trade War Has Begun

The Next Phase of the China-US Trade War Has Begun

By Shannon Tiezzi
As Trump's new 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports took effect, China hit back with tariffs and sanctions of its own.

What Is Iran Doing With 1000 Tons of Sodium Perchlorate From China? 

What Is Iran Doing With 1000 Tons of Sodium Perchlorate From China? 

By Daniel Allen, Katherine Michaelson, and Marco Volpitta
The shipment of Chinese sodium perchlorate indicates a rapid rebuilding of Iran’s missile industry since Israeli strikes in October – with Beijing’s help.

Is China’s DeepSeek Using Smuggled AI Chips From Singapore?

Is China’s DeepSeek Using Smuggled AI Chips From Singapore?

By Sebastian Strangio
The U.S. government is probing whether the Hangzhou-based AI firm has built its disruptive R1 AI model on restricted Nvidia chips.

What’s Driving Taiwan’s Mass Protests?
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What’s Driving Taiwan’s Mass Protests?

The DeepSeek Doctrine: How Chinese AI Could Shape Taiwan’s Future 

The DeepSeek Doctrine: How Chinese AI Could Shape Taiwan’s Future 

By Max Dixon
Taiwan's security in part rests on perceptions, particularly in the U.S., of its status. Should a generation of Americans emerge that is schooled and socialized by DeepSeek, the future for Taiwan appears incredibly bleak.

What to Make of Russia’s New Security Agreements

What to Make of Russia’s New Security Agreements

By Michael MacArthur Bosack
The treaties with Iran and Belarus are different from the one Russia reached with North Korea, and there has been no attempt to link any of them.
China’s DeepSeek Is America’s AI Sputnik Moment 

China’s DeepSeek Is America’s AI Sputnik Moment 

By Selina Xu
A Chinese AI model is now as good as leading U.S. AI models, using only a tiny fraction of GPU resources available. This is a gamechanger for the global AI arms race.

China-India Relations: The Thaw-Provoke-Repeat Cycle

China-India Relations: The Thaw-Provoke-Repeat Cycle

By Rahul Jaybhay
Since the Cold War, relations have followed a pattern: a thaw, followed by a concoction or recycling of the boundary dispute.

Will Casualties in Ukraine Lead to Change in North Korea?

Will Casualties in Ukraine Lead to Change in North Korea?

By Karl Anthony Borg
The unprecedented loss of life in a foreign conflict means that the war in Ukraine could be the Kim regime’s most significant test since the 1990s famine.

The US Pivot to Asia Depends on Peace in Ukraine

The US Pivot to Asia Depends on Peace in Ukraine

By Martijn van Ette and Andrew Gawthorpe
In the 1950s the U.S. carried out a pivot from Asia to Europe – despite the outbreak of the Korean War. Trump can learn from that history.
​​Beijing’s Targeting of Taiwan’s Undersea Cables Previews Cross-Strait Tensions Under a Trump Presidency

​​Beijing’s Targeting of Taiwan’s Undersea Cables Previews Cross-Strait Tensions Under a Trump Presidency

By Hans Horan
We can expect China to test the resilience of the Taiwan-U.S. partnership under Trump with more gray-zone operations.

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