Iran’s Empty Threats
Image Credit: U.S. Navy

Iran’s Empty Threats

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The growing tensions over Iran’s nuclear program in 2011 didn’t let up as the year drew to a close. Iranian officials threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if Western governments adopt more sanctions aimed at hindering its nuclear program, prompting U.S. government representatives to state that they won’t allow this to happen.

On December 27, Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, Iran’s first vice president, warned that, “If they [Western Powers] impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz.”  The following day, Iranian naval commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari stated that, “Iran has total control over the strategic waterway…Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces.”

About one-fifth of the world’s oil production, or some two-fifths of the world’s tanker-borne oil, traverse the Strait, amounting to about 15 million barrels per day. Western officials have therefore kept a wary eye on Iranian warships as well as various units of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) that have been engaging in maritime exercises in the Persian Gulf in a 2,000 square-kilometer zone in international waters between the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. These exercises, code named Velayat 90, began on December 24 and are scheduled to last about 10 days. Iran regularly holds such exercises, but the timing of these drills has attracted more international attention than usual.

Indeed, tensions were heightened still further when Iran this weekend tested medium-range missiles capable of hitting Bahrain and other Gulf states with U.S. military bases, including a Qader (Capable) shore-to-sea and a Nour (Light) surface-to-surface missile. Iran is located some 140 miles at its nearest point from Bahrain, and Sayyari was quick to suggest that the missile firings and other capabilities displayed during the exercise demonstrated that the Iranian military had the ability to close the Strait if so ordered.

So, are Iranian officials serious? For now at least they probably wouldn’t carry out such a threat, and are more likely trying simply to deter additional sanctions by highlighting the specter of a military confrontation, which would raise insurance costs to shippers even if their vessels weren’t physically attacked. The threats are a reminder to the world that Tehran might not react passively to additional sanctions, and the Iranians might well hope that Russia and China will press the EU and Japan to avoid adopting new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Making threats is also useful to Tehran as it can raise world oil prices and therefore generate some extra Iranian export revenue.

And there are domestic considerations – Iranian leaders might be hoping to show their people how tough they are in defending Iranian interests from foreign challenges. Certainly, making threats is less costly than taking concrete action such as attacking foreign targets in other Gulf States or Israel.

Still, the alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to Washington is a reminder that when it comes to Iran, nothing is certain. Some Iranians appear to be simply crazy, rather than “crazy like a fox.” There’s also the risk of inadvertent conflict through misperception or accident due to the increased military activities by U.S. and Iranian forces in close proximity in the Persian Gulf. After all, the Strait is about 34 miles wide at the narrowest point, but the navigable part is only some 20 miles wide.

All this comes at a time when tensions between Iran and the West had already escalated after the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report apparently detailing reported Iranian bomb-making activities. More recently, Iran has detained and tried Americans as spies and has refused to return a U.S. surveillance drone. U.S. officials and experts also worry that Iran will try to move into the vacuum created by the U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq.

Comments
7
Eslam
February 23, 2012 at 14:56

fyi,I couninte to think Iran does much better to act sensibly and to try to be seen as reasonable. Warmongering neocons, other fanatical supporters of Israel, et al., are continually tring to come up with ways to provoke Iran.

Alejandro
February 22, 2012 at 03:33

SmarterThanJC,Fifty-seven Muslim ciotnrues support the Saudi peace plan. And Iran has hinted strongly it will accept any deal the Palestinians themselves accept. So, why are you so hostile toward Iran?

Tony
January 8, 2012 at 03:53

Thank God it was neither Hitler nor the Arabs who possessed the atomic bomb first. Otherwise the carnage would have been much worse! Humankind would not have survived!

hateu
January 5, 2012 at 23:46

Talut… you think the US are criminals intresting point of view with no facts to back it up. The fact is Iran uses terrorism not only on other people but its own people.THIS is fact . Also a war with Iran would last about 7 hours. Hell if the US went to war with all the gulf states it might take two weeks before you all surrender …Not because your militaries are bad but because they dont have the heart to fight for a goverment they hate. Extremist like you Talut are whats wrong with the middle east ..well that and the fact you guys have laws from the 14th century.

Talut
January 5, 2012 at 18:12

Even if Iranians die of starvation, they must get nuclear power. The shameless tyranny and inhuman partiality of the west must end for sake of humanity. All the Muslim around the world should support them and get united. Only if the tyranny of the west and Israel ends , the peace will be restored. USA is the only genuine war criminal on earth who exploded nuclear weapons to kill millions.

Bobby
January 5, 2012 at 02:12

“Illusion of Grandeur” must be rampant among the leaders of Iran. All it takes is one “accident” and its “new” navy will be sent to the bottom of the gulf. The question is whether it will take hours or days for the US 5th Fleet to do the job.

SCdad07
January 4, 2012 at 05:14

The “empty threat” is good for another $4 up on oil price and 10% down on Iranian currency.

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