India has the kind of soft power among Afghans that the U.S. can only dream of. Working together, New Delhi and Washington could still save Afghanistan.
With two important diplomatic victories last month, the Obama administration has laid the groundwork for the final chapters of the Afghan war. With a secret overnight flight to Kabul on May 1, U.S. President Barack Obama sealed an Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement (ESPA) with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, setting the terms for the United States to retain a robust counterterrorism force to combat the remnants of al-Qaeda and provide a modest security blanket for the Afghan government beyond 2014. Weeks later, at the NATO summit in Chicago, Obama rallied war-fatigued European allies to endorse his framework for an orderly transfer of power to the Afghan government and secure long term pledges of aid.
These diplomatic successes were crucial components of the administration’s withdrawal strategy, but they offer little immediate relief to the war fighter in Afghanistan struggling to subdue a persistent insurgency. Despite some welcome news on the reduction of civilian casualties in Afghanistan, Washington’s leverage over the Taliban – which pulled out of peace talks months ago – is in terminal decline. The shocking admission by the chairmen of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees last month that the Taliban is stronger today than it was before the U.S. “surge” of forces in 2009 is a reminder that tactical victories can be swallowed whole by an unsound strategy. And the administration can’t seem to shake lingering doubts about the survivability of the Afghan government after the U.S. withdrawal. Should the Obama administration be crafting a Plan B?
Plan A, of course, was Pakistan. From the outset of the Afghan invasion, the United States relied on Islamabad to provide critical intelligence and logistical support. Unfortunately, so did the Taliban. Pakistan’s widely-recognized “double game” was again highlighted in the Pentagon’s most recent six month progress report, which concluded a decade on, “the Taliban-led insurgency and its al-Qaeda affiliates still operate with impunity from sanctuaries in Pakistan.” Once seen as critical to a peaceful solution in Afghanistan, few doubt Pakistan is now a tremendous obstacle.
Yet with flagging political support for the war and a receding footprint in the region, the U.S. has few options but to cultivate regional partnerships. China is concerned with access to Afghanistan’s natural resources, and little else. U.S. offers of closer collaboration in Afghanistan have been repeatedly rebuffed by Beijing. Russia is an equally problematic partner. While Moscow shares Washington’s concerns over militant Islamists and provides the coalition air and rail routes into Afghanistan, it has oscillated between fiercely opposing a long term U.S. military presence in the country and warning Washington about the consequences of a precipitous withdrawal. Iran, for its part, was once a staunch opponent of the Taliban, but reversed roles after the U.S. invasion, providing arms to the militant group and inciting anti-American sentiment across Afghanistan.
That leaves India. Since 2001, Washington and New Delhi have enjoyed a fundamental convergence of interests in Afghanistan; namely, combating Islamist extremism and supporting democratic governance in Kabul. India vocally welcomed the U.S. overthrow of the Taliban and was the first to warn against any precipitous withdrawal. Its proven track record of opposing the Taliban predates the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, and in the last decade New Delhi has given nearly two billion dollars in aid to the fledgling democracy. More importantly, India draws from a deep well of “soft power” in Afghanistan. It regularly polls among the countries most popular with Afghans, and last year reached an accord with Kabul to train Afghan army and police officers. India built the Afghan parliament building and runs the biggest children’s hospital in the country’s capital.
Photo Credit: High Commission of India, Malaysia
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Gwinter
Pakistan will need to come to grips with being next to what will become the world's greatest power. The US should have invaded North Waziristan and dared the Pakistanis to do anything about it.The Pakistanis will pay for their insolence and treachery at a time and place of the US's choosing.
Bilal Yousaf
Actually India is falling on its face in Afghanistan and will never be a power as you dream
usman
james…just enlighten me who created taliban….the whole mess in the contemporary world is the creation of west….go through the history….regarding china….its a sleeping lion….and on right time will awoke…..waittt
Mazo
Pakistan has one key element that gives them power over the Pastuns – Islam. Pakistani intelligence and military officers wield Islam like a weapon and use it to commit large numbers of the Afghans to do their bidding. They use it to keep and subjugate the Afghan women and use it as a tool to rally the Pastuns against the Tajiks, Uzbeks etc.
India cannot command or negate the power of radical Islam that Pakistan wields over the Pastuns and to that end, both India and the US need to involve a more amenable Islamic nation with more leverage like the Saudis to negate the hold of Islam Pakistan has over the Pastuns.
To the Afghans, Indians may not be as alien as Americans but Indians are also not one of them. With Iran so close, the Saudis would have a vested interest to spread a more calming influence in Afghanistan while taking the thunder out of Pakistani mullahs and intelligence agents.
What the West has refused to accept and refused to acknowledge thus far is that this entire conflict is founded on radical Islam and as long as there is no attempt made to counter that at an ideological level, no amount of military force would help change the situation.
James
Anjaan, a good question and thank you for submitting it yes there is more than meets the eyes. I do believe that there is a small segment of the population and political class that think decently of us. The ongoing drone strikes are an indicator of your point, and there is still a formal relationship in place so the releasing of money should not come as a surprise. . .
Asif, the whole world is about to go in the dump. Export oriented economies will suffer the most. The Arabian Gulf and China will feel this. China is NOT going to bankroll a split right now. We have all the cards. If Chinese domestic consumption could make up for the loss of The EU (a 15 trillion dollar customer) then China would be acting a little different. We’re China’s Number One customer. So when you think we have no leverage think about that again. The technocrats who rule Beijing have their legitimacy from the improvement in living standards aka the export machine that we see today providing jobs for Chinese citizens. They can’t burn bridges with thier number one customer, not yet. Not at this moment in time. Thirty years down the road? Possibly, but certainly not now. We’re not going anywhere. A year ago I would have shared your view but Russia as a new friend? They cannot project influence in Afghanistan after 2014. In what capacity you speak of? Spetznatz in The Hindu Kush? If you want Moscow (who has been a real, and long time ally of New Dehli) on your flank go ahead and have at it. Again laughable. China? China doesn’t have to do a thing in Afghanistan. If has no strategic need at all to be involved (directly) in Afghanistan. . .
You don’t need our technology and you want Chinese parts instead? Excellent, again we now know that you need nothing from us and it makes my point that we should not be talking in any means whatsoever. Talk to anyone in the semiconductor industry or for that matter any parts that you need to have a modern society and then see who makes them. China doesn’t make technology. Other people develop it, put up the R&D, and if there’s no threat of Intellectual Property theft then they can produce it. Nearly all of the worlds semiconductors and dual-use civilian/military parts all come from the coalition of people that Islamabad kills in Pakistan. Pakistan is a nation-state with cancer. Al-Qaeda and their affiliates are like a virus. They can’t incubate in a healthy host. They seem to have broad swaths of support throughout all segments of Pakistani society. . .
James
The following should be done immediately:
1) Suspend all Student Visa’s for all Students from Pakistan in The United
States. . .
2) Suspend all Diplomatic ties. . .
3) Suspend all Military contacts. . .
4) Suspend any Pakistani imported goods and services to US Markets. . .
4) Work with Australia to see that Uranium exports go to New Dehli and not
Islamabad. . .
Look, these people hate us. Fine and good. They are at war with us. They hid Osama bin Laden. That should always be remembered, always. Better to be at a truthful point than a false transactional relationship were people bandy about platitudes in the name of the status quo. At least with the truth, even if it goes to zero, you at least start with a factual base to reassess. If Pakistan decides that after that they want to kill every coalition soldier during the next two years to show their leverage it’ll get a little messy but the withdrawl will still go forward. If anyone really thinks that the coalition forces are in danger of encirclement and will not be able to leave theatre are dreaming. The bottom line is we cannot impose a military solution to the talibs but they CANNOT throw us out either. If they could they would’ve already done so. Pakistan will show, and have shown over the past few years, the entire world in the process just who their friends are and how truly ugly and demonic their proxies really are. If Pakistan wants to go to war with The United States then the best thing we can do is get the heavy footprint off the ground in Afghanistan. Squeeze their access to technology, aid, trade agreements. At that point if they decide to send their friends to bomb us in Times Square or Washington Metro then again, the whole world will see who their friends really are. . .
Pakistan made what it felt was it’s choice, and again it is certainly in their perogative to do so. But people have a right to respond as well. What Pakistani’s seem to very casually not understand is that they not only kill Americans but coalition troops whose countries could provide substantial aid and assistance following 2014. Those loans that Islamabad constantly seeks (due to corrpution that reaches truly staggering levels) come from those countries whose people are killed all in the name of “Strategic Depth.” Well, we’ll see how aid flows after 2014, and again Australia has a lot of Uranium. I’m sure that when it comes time to review who should get their supply they will take into account lives lost on the account of Pakistani maliciousnes. Pakistan earlier this year voiced concerns with Australia about getting no access to Australian Uranium and watching it go to India in disproportionate amounts. I’m sure that trend will only continue. . .
The truly interesting paradox about Islamabad is that Al Qaeda kills Pakistani’s. They are a mortal threat to Pakistan. Al Qaeda has killed more Pakistani’s than Americans, and it ain’t even close. And yet, the military and political leadership like them. Pakistan, and Pakistani’s seem to have a general affinity for Al-Qaeda. Anyone think that Ayman Alzawahiri is in Pakistan? With hindsight can we now ask why every major Al Qaeda leader was in Pakistan? Perhaps they were just put up in safehouses, fed, and then provided to us so that Islamabad can say “See we help, now give us money.” This is the country where when provincial governors are assinated by their bodyguards, lawyers line up to throw rose pedals at the killer. This is the country that tortures and kills journalists, seems to be indifferent to eradicating polio amongst it’s poor, and now is rejoicing about having Moscow as it’s new friend. And oh yes, the guy who helps in the killing of Osama bin Laden, is reqarded by torture and prison. Dr. Afridi, we owe you better Sir. You saved Pakistani and American lives, even if your countrymen don’t acknowledge it. . .
Again, if that is what they want, fine and good. Just remember that time continues on and there will be some new dimensions to South Asia. At that point we can stand chest to chest or back to back. The world is about to drop off an economic cliff. China has two primary customers: Europe and America. Europe is about to be de facto split in two with a Nordic Core focused on Germany with an improvished South for a few decades. A 15 trillion dollar economy/customer is about to vanish for good. As an export country they are losing a lot of markets and domestic consumption cannot take the place of The EU. Only the US can absorb Chinese goods for the next decade as a guaranteed customer. Chinese domestic consumption cannot make up for the loss of The EU at the moment. The point, if Islamabad and Pakistani’s think that Beijing will bankroll a split in South Asia you’re dreaming. China would do that, but not now. It is not in their interest. Not with the financial catastrophe that is about to come this year. Although Moscow and Beijing may have reservations about our presence in Afghanistan we are doing a lot of their heavy work too because they have similar concerns about the terrorism that radiates out of Pakistan. . .
Bottom line, you are a satellite of Beijing, like Pyongyang. “Strategic Depth” and this pursuit of it will have blowback. For a very, very long time to come. It wasn’t just American soldiers Islamabad killed, and continues to try to kill. . .
Anjaan
@ James,
The US have decided on Sunday to release $1.18 billions to Pakistan, 75% of the amount invoiced.
Now why do you think it is being done unless there is more than meet the eyes ?
Asif
USA is a diminishing power. Pakistan, despite all issues that it is facing still hold the trump card.
Russia and China are egarly working with Pakistan for the post 2014 order in Afganistan.
on Tech? we don’t need your tech as we have partners like China to support us.
Anjaan
China …. supporting Pakistan with third rate stuff that even the Chinese do not use …. Pakis are losers without any options …..?!
Stealing, borrowing and reverse engineering do not make China a super power …. !
anonymous
U.S should come out of the dream,that Pakistan is an ally in it’s war on terror.Pakistan shelters Taliban,Al-qaeda,Lashkar-e-toiba,HuJi…etc…etc..
They use terrorism as an instrument of their state’s policy.
Instead of supporting pakistan u.s should turn towards India,and get out of afghanistan.The irony here is U.S provides billions of dollars in aid(free money) to pakistan,which uses it to arm itself against it’s arch rival India.
Mark Thomason
This idea is blind to the underlying problems. India pushing into Afghanistan has always been Pakistan’s underlying concern, more than anything we care about. If we attempt to solve our concerns by imposing what Pakistan most fears, the whole place will explode. Pakistan can do that, and they would.
Anjaan
@ Mark Thomason,
That is the crux of the issue. The Pakistani concerns are admissible, as long as their interests coverge with the interests of their American masters. But that is clearly not the case now. Ten years and over twenty billions of dollars got the Americans precious little from their Major non-NATO ally.
What is the plan B of the Americans, if at all there is one ?
Anjaan
The Americans, for over a decade, armed the Pakistanis to the teeth, while transfering tens of billions of dollars in economic aid, without any accountability. The Americans are not dumb, not to have seen the Pakistani double game all these years. The US-Pakistani drama is deliberate, calibrated and stage managed. There is more than meet the eyes.
The American plan B of partnering India, post NATO withdrawal, and transfering military and economic aid to Pakistan can not go hand in hand. The Americans may be smart, the rest of the world is not dumb either.
India will pursue its own interests in Afghanistan, independent of the American interests. India will continue to pursue close partnership with Iran, in order to achieve its Afganistan goal, regardless of what the Americans would wish.
Barb
Screw the mideast. We have no business there. All we're doing is maiming or killing our finest bravest, best young men who have been told they are "fighting for our freedom."
We need to learn from China – BE SELFISH. worry about our OWN FUTURE. Not solve the world's problems. STOP SENDING OUR TROOPS AND OUR BILLIONS TO THAT sandpit.
Asif
Only Pakistan can provide security to Afganistan. India’s rule in Afganistan is ill idea as they are only for exploiting their resources.
Pakistan and China must make a stretegy to bring down the US and India plan to rule this region.
China can provide the hard power and Pakistan its solf as well as hard in order to move US and India out. Russia will support us as well in this as they are very much concerned with US presence in this region.
Although I am very much respect the policies of Chinese but I am concerned why they shy away from their responsibilities to take the security matter in thier hands. They are the next superpower and they must start to use it in order to sent back outsiders of Asia and keep countries like India under control.
Anjaan
The Chinese are smart and pragmatic people. They will never team up with losers like the Pakis, only use them for their own profit.