Just following up on the latest Jasmine rally calls in China. Again, the authorities weren’t taking any chances, with the turnout of security forces in Beijing, for example, more visibly heavy than the previous weekend.
Foreign reporters were generally denied access to the would-be protest sites and threatened with having their visas revoked if they tried to defy the restrictions, while dozens of dissidents and rights activists were also reportedly rounded up.
An estimated 740,000 regular and temporary security officials were mobilized, perhaps not surprising given the fact that the planned protests were to take place against the backdrop of the annual parliamentary session.
In addition to the heavy police presence, I’ve heard from several people in Beijing yesterday who said they experienced significant problems with mobile phone reception, suggesting that signals were being blocked in an effort to deter any kind of organized gathering.
Three weeks in now, and it seems unlikely that this particular effort at mobilizing Chinese is going to gain much traction. The unrest in Tunisia that touched off uprisings around the Arab world was triggered by video of street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi, who set himself alight outside the parliament after having his belongings confiscated by police.
Short of a similarly dramatic sacrifice, and a breakdown in what Kelley Currie described for us here as China’s relatively savvy authoritarianism, then for now at least it seems unlikely that the unrest halfway across the globe will make its presence felt in Beijing.

Peter Kuo
To this day I am tired of listening to the ‘same old rubbish’, ‘Divide and conquer’ springs to mind. China, for goodness sake, to stop this rubbish about jasmine, orange, purple, blue, blah blah all you need to to is be open. To admit to your mistakes shows greater courage, and is in fact REAL democracy rather than so called ‘labelled’ democratic countries.
Pebble
Jasmine is working. Will the government continue to close down Beijing forever?
Zheng Wei
I think the key point in determining whether the Chinese Jasmine has worked or not is to examine the goals and the results.
If the goal were to get any tangible changes from the government, or even to somehow bring democracy in China, then it’s a failure. It shows that Chinese people have little appetite. At the same time, it shows the tools which the CCP possess.
If the goal were to show the internal weakness of CCP, I would say it’s a semi-success. Yes it did reveal to the world how nervous the CCP is to criticism. It also make obvious how restrained the civil freedom is in China. The only problem is that, well, nothing new here, right? No one tried to argue that PRC is as free as USA.
Speaking from the other side, I think the CCP would get two things out from the Jasmine movement.
1) Their security system is working well, keep on the good job.
2) People are generally happy with their work, keep growing the economy and making jobs, and people would ignore democracy for a while.
3) Western journalists are the trouble. Keep an alert eye on them. Sorry for sounding harsh it, I’m really trying to put myself in the shoes of the CCP.
Stephen Real
The soft power tactics of the Chinese Jasmine revolutionaries are the epitome of asymmetrical warfare.
Now that these cats definitely know they have the Chinese authorities by their balls. All they have to do is pull, and oh boy do they get a reaction. This just lends one to think that this Chinese Jasmine revolution is just in the beginning phase of operations.
It’s very reminiscent of how “Che” Guevara use to wind up the Batista forces by firing one bullet at an outpost, they would go nuts, and shoot back with overwhelming force all night long, while Che was already back in his bed sleeping. (Che, in my opinion, was a homicidal maniac, but you get the point.)
John Chan
Tea party has gone mainstream, they have betrayed the Americans(the US). Jasmine revolution has sprouted up all over the USA led by the public service unions. Jasmine rallies are now being held in Wisconsin, Ohio, Tennessee, Indiana, and counting.
Jaques
I tend to agree with Pebble here. THey are not designed to bring down the system (suggesting demonstrators meet and exchange smiles / glances etc is hardly an uprising.) They just highlight the extreme weakness of the Chinese state (along with yesterday’s news that China is now and for the future spending more on internal security than on its national defence).
Beijing is keen to promote the costs of democracy (the major coverage of problems in Thailand, the cost of India’s elections, the delay / debate in implementing decisions in other countries) but these “demonstrations” are highlighting that it is not all one way. For all its GDP stats, impressive construction and fast trains, the state remains fundamentally insecure in China.
Pebble
You’ve got it all wrong Jason, you’re not seeing the wood for the trees!
These demonstrations are a complete success. The authorities are running around chasing their tales after phantom protestors, shutting down the capital, turning off mobile phones, running reporters out of town
These demonstrations are about showing to the world what an oppressive self-serving government the CCP is … and it’s working!!!
Here’s a great article about the Jasmine Revolutions…
http://chinarisingblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/why-jasmine-protests-in-china-are.html
Come on guys… think outside the box !!
This is the 21stC, we don’t need a Tianammen Style protest to beat this government
Jason
Thanks for posting, and I understand your point. But have the events over the past weekend shown the world anything at all that it didn’t already know about China? Especially after what it had already seen at Tiananmen?
Bill
I disagree.
The world is fully aware of what type of government China have. Even the least connected citizen both inside and outside of China is well aware (thanks in great part to the Western media may I add). To say that jasmin is spreading news.. well, it’s not really news nor is it changing anyone’s mind…
I have personally seen way worse, and I am an avid supporter. In contrast, this is like, quite tame.
So what is the point of this protest then? Preach the already converted? If you are trying to “beat this government” as you so elegantly put it, then you probably don’t need the Jasmine to be set in your ways, I am certain you are already quite determined even before it happened.
And let’s face it, you DO need a Tianammen Style protest to bring down the government, way more in fact. It didn’t work the last time you don’t think its different this time around would you? Of course, as a foreigner, such details aren’t that important. What’s important is to cause chaos, any ways possible. After all, it will be Chinese killing Chinese, why would you be concerned?