A Myanmar rebel group claims to have seized a major regional military headquarters in the city of Lashio near the border with China, in what would mark a historic and humiliating defeat for the country’s military junta.
In a Chinese-language statement published on its Facebook page yesterday, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) said that it had completely captured the military’s Northeastern Regional Command headquarters at 4 a.m. that morning, after 23 days of fighting. “The liberation of Lashio will mark a historic victory in our revolution,” the group declared.
The MNDAA also claimed to have established effective control over the city of Lashio, which lies 110 kilometers south of the Chinese border.
“Our army has won a decisive victory and is now clearing out the remaining enemy troops. The city is now declared completely liberated,” it added, urging the public to remain calm and comply with its administration of the city.
However, the situation remains fluid and conditions on the ground are hard to verify. The Irrawaddy, citing “sources close to resistance forces on the ground,” reported that the city of 170,000 is not yet under full MNDAA control and that clashes are still going on in parts of the city. Myanmar Now, citing local sources, reported that fighting was ongoing but that MNDAA troops “have already entered the city’s downtown core, and were seen approaching the airport [yesterday] afternoon.”
For what it’s worth, the military State Administration Council (SAC), the junta’s official name, denied that the Northeastern Regional Command had been overrun, with spokesperson Zaw Min Tun stating that its forces military were currently conducting clearance operations near the headquarters.
The MNDAA’s sensational announcement came a day after its ally, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), reported that it had established control over Mogok, a ruby-mining center around 230 kilometers west of Lashio.
The MNDAA and TNLA are members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which has been spearheading a multi-pronged offensive against junta positions across northern Shan State and parts of Mandalay Region. During its initial phase from October to January, the surprise offensive, known as Operation 1027 after the date of its commencement, saw the groups capture large swathes of territory in northern Shan State, including numerous towns and several important border crossings with China. The most significant of these was the MNDAA’s reconquest of the ethnic Chinese-dominated Kokang region, from which the military had expelled it in 2009.
After a five-month pause in hostilities due to a Chinese government-brokered ceasefire in January, the TNLA, backed up by allied People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) opposed to military rule, opened the second phase of Operation 1027 in Shan State and Mandalay Region in late June. It was then joined by the MNDAA, which on July 3 launched attacks on Lashio, the largest urban center in northern Shan State, also with the assistance of PDFs and other anti-regime militias.
As The Irrawaddy reported yesterday, “it took just a little over three weeks for the ethnic alliance and allied resistance forces to seize around five junta battalion headquarters and frontline bases in and around Lashio.” Around 300 junta soldiers defending the city surrendered to the MNDAA over the weekend.
If confirmed, the fall of the Northeastern Regional Command would be a significant loss for the Myanmar armed forces. It would not only be the first military regional command to fall to anti-regime resistance forces; such a loss would also be unprecedented in the eight-decade history of the military.
In terms of the unfolding conflict, the loss of the command would be a “major strategic blow” to the SAC, Morgan Michaels of the International Institute of Strategic Studies told the Associated Press, describing it as “the junta’s last major line of defense in northern Shan State.” As The Irrawaddy explains, the Northeastern Command, one of 13 regional military commands, “oversees military operations across northern Shan State, including areas near the Chinese border.”
As a result, the loss of Lashio would potentially lead to the total collapse of the Myanmar military’s presence in northern Shan State, with cascading effects in other parts of Shan and Mandalay Region. It would be just a matter of time before resistance groups begin pressing down on the hill station of Pyin U Lwin, the home of the Defense Forces Academy, the Myanmar military’s equivalent to West Point.
At the same time, the MNDAA’s capture of Lashio would create a host of complications that might slow its military advance. Michaels told the AP that there are an estimated 5,000 regime defenders in the city, and it remains unclear whether they will “withdraw, surrender, or get destroyed.”
Then there are the challenges that come with the assumption of control over such a large urban settlement – one larger than any the MNDAA has ever administered. (By comparison, Laukkai, the capital of Kokang, has an estimated population of 23,000.) While a decent proportion of Lashio’s population is ethnically Chinese, the city is not one over which the Kokang Chinese have any historical claim. As a result, rule by the ethnically Chinese MNDAA could be a potential source of tension with the city’s ethnic Shan and Bamar populations.
There is also the possibility of friction with rival ethnic armed groups. As the Institute for International and Strategic Studies noted in a briefing published earlier this week, the second phase of Operation 1027 has brought the TNLA into tense proximity with groups including the Kachin Independence Army and Shan State Progress Party. Similar frictions could emerge if the MNDAA seeks to consolidate its control over Lashio.
All this is to say nothing of the challenge of administering Lashio, in terms of water and electricity supplies, education, health, transport, and basic law and order. One possible option is that authority over Lashio might be shared in some way between a coalition of resistance groups, perhaps even with the involvement of the opposition National Unity Government, the titular head of the nationwide resistance.
While much remains uncertain, it is clear that the fast-moving events in northern Shan State could mark a significant watershed in the complex ethnic politics of Shan State, and in the country’s civil war as a whole.