Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Ukraine, the first by an Indian prime minister since diplomatic relations were established 30 years ago. During the visit, the two sides signed agreements pledging cooperation in agriculture, culture, medical products and assistance for community development projects.
However, it is the geopolitical implications of the visit, which can be described as one of Modi’s most difficult diplomatic missions ever, that are significant.
Modi’s Kyiv visit on August 23 came just six weeks after his controversial trip to Moscow that had put on full display India’s close relationship with Russia. Modi was photographed embracing Russian President Vladimir Putin. Moreover, his meeting with Putin came on a day Russia targeted a children’s hospital in Ukraine, and coincided with the U.S. hosting a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meeting. Not surprisingly Modi’s visit drew severe criticism from the U.S. and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
It is widely believed that Modi’s Kyiv visit was aimed at smoothing ruffled feathers in Western capitals. During his meeting with Zelenskyy, Modi took on critics deriding India for taking a position seen as neutral if not pro-Russia.
“We [India] are not neutral. From the very beginning, we have taken sides. And we have chosen the side of peace,” he said in televised remarks.
The India-Ukraine joint statement sought to clarify the Indian position further. India “reiterated its principled position and focus on peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy,” it said.
Importantly, the statement referenced the U.N. Charter and the need to respect territorial integrity.
It spoke of the need to have all stakeholders on board for a peaceful solution to the conflict. A conference on Ukraine hosted by Switzerland to lay the ground for a peace process in June 2024 had excluded Russia.
The statement also added that Modi expressed “India’s willingness to contribute in all possible ways to facilitate an early return of peace.”
Whether Modi would actively propose a peace formula, being one of the few leaders welcomed in Moscow and Kyiv (the others being leaders of Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa, and Hungary) had been the subject of intense speculation. So far, New Delhi has been content to stay in the background and pass on messages from one side to the other. From the statement, it seems that New Delhi may not be doing much more just yet.
Zelenskyy made it clear he wanted New Delhi to clearly take Ukraine’s side. Speaking to reporters after talks with Modi, Zelenskyy also indicated that Moscow was using money from the sale of Russian oil to countries like India to fund his anti-Ukraine military campaign. Efforts by India to explain its compulsions did not seem to have worked.
“What we did was to explain to the Ukrainian side what was the energy market scenario, the fact that today many energy producers are sanctioned, making the market potentially very tight; and why actually today there is a compulsion, in fact not just a compulsion, I mean why it is in the interest of the international economy as a whole, that oil prices remain reasonable and stable,” India’s Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar told reporters.
India has had close economic, political and security ties with Russia, dating back decades. However, New Delhi is wary of Russia’s recent close embrace of India’s strategic rival China, which did not condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine war.
In contrast, Modi has repudiated war and advocated diplomacy and dialogue. In September 2022, Modi, in a face-to-face meeting with Putin said that this is not an era of war. This was an unequivocal expression of disapproval of the Russian action, couched in soft language given India’s apprehension of Russia switching completely to the Chinese side.
Popular perception has it that Modi’s Kyiv visit was a hastily planned one, put together as a damage control exercise after the Moscow visit. That may not be the whole picture.
Considering the close ties India has with Moscow, that New Delhi has abstained from U.N. resolutions slamming the Russian aggression in Ukraine coupled with India’s dependence on Moscow for military hardware and supplies, it is impossible that India would have blindsided Russia with a surprise visit to Ukraine. When asked at a pre-visit press conference whether India had kept Russia in the loop, an Indian official side-stepped the question.
It is also hard to imagine that New Delhi would not have anticipated some criticism of Modi’s Moscow visit and not planned for an outreach to Kyiv.
Given the depth of bitterness between the East and the West, hedging is inevitable though getting more difficult for a middle power and an emerging country like India.
As part of the hedging process, India hosted the Russian Navy chief Admiral Aleksandr Alekseyevich Moiseyev on August 19-22, just ahead of Modi’s Kyiv visit.
Besides, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh was on a visit to the U.S. on the day Modi was in Ukraine. Singh oversaw the signing of two key agreements, the Security of Supplies Arrangement (SOSA) and another on the Assignment of Liaison Officers, a sign of deepening defense cooperation between two countries that were on opposite sides during the Cold War.
On August 20, New Delhi was the venue for the third Japan-India Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting, known as the “2+2” talks. During the talks, India and Japan discussed the transfer to India of the latest radar equipment used by the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. India’s interest in purchasing Japanese military equipment is indicative of New Delhi slowly weaning itself off Russian military hardware that it once used to buy in bulk. Of late the Indian military has in its inventory U.S. and French-made hardware alongside Russian equipment.
So, what are the takeaways from Modi’s first visit to Ukraine? From all accounts, it is a mixed bag.
Modi’s visit to Ukraine was welcomed by Western countries. He appears to have deflected some criticism of India’s special ties with Moscow and bought some breathing space for India.
There were no signs though that India would push Russia to end the war or even abandon it. This has also been noted by those (read the West) who were looking for pointed indications that India had changed its stance on Russia.
As the country that has positioned itself as the “Voice of the Global South” Modi has expressed his wish to work for peace. However, peace would only be possible if and when both sides, i.e., Ukraine backed by the West and Russia supported by China, are ready to sit down for talks.
Neither side can be expected to accept a peace plan drafted entirely by the other side. This is where India’s point, that all stakeholders must be involved in peace talks for it to succeed, makes sense. But there seem to be no takers for this idea just yet.