When many Americans woke up on November 6 to the news that Donald Trump had won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, most Southeast Asian leaders had already confirmed the results and offered their congratulations to the winning candidate. Now, as the reality of a second Trump term sets in around the world, Southeast Asia is beginning to assess the opportunities and consequences of the return of Trump and his “America First” agenda.
Although Southeast Asian leaders offered praise and expressed hopes for strengthened relations, some are worried about potential political and economic fallout. Major points of anxiety include the economic consequences of Trump’s proposed 10-20 percent universal tariff on all imports and 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods, the possibility of being forced to pick sides in an increasingly competitive China-U.S. rivalry, and the security risks of inflamed tensions in the South China Sea.
Philippines
The first Southeast Asian leader to congratulate Trump was President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines, who said the American people had “triumphed” in their democratic exercise. In his statement, Marcos said he was hopeful that the “unshakeable alliance” between the Philippines and the U.S. would continue to be a force for good in the Pacific. The Philippines has the most to lose of any Southeast Asian country from a Trump administration that may care less about alliances given how much Marcos has staked on his alignment with the United States.
The Philippines is likely questioning how resilient its security partnership with a Trump White House will be, particularly if Chinese aggression continues to intensify in the South China Sea. However, Philippine officials assured citizens that the relationship would not be negatively impacted. Executive Secretary Lucas Bersami said he thought U.S. commitments to the relationship would “follow through” and that there would be “no problem” on South China Sea issues under Trump. Writing in the Philippine Star, local journalist Tony Lopez said that Trump’s election would ultimately be good because its rivalry with China would “[mean] business” for the Philippines.
Thailand
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra congratulated Trump in a short statement on X, writing that she looks forward to advancing the two countries’ long-standing alliance for the “benefits of our peoples and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.” Thailand’s biggest worries going into the election concerned trade and economics, given the possibility that tariffs on China could either benefit or hurt Thai exports. Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan remarked that Trump’s victory might favor Thailand because “Republicans are pro-business” and the inevitable China-U.S. trade war will result in “more investments from both countries into Thailand.”
While Thailand has a treaty alliance with the United States, comments from officials highlight the growing belief that maintaining a balanced position between Washington and Beijing will allow Thailand to prosper as Trump returns to office.
Another “voice” in Thailand’s election responses was that of global sensation Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo who predicted Trump’s win by choosing a pumpkin rind carved with the Republican’s name over another bearing the name of his challenger Kamala Harris. A Facebook page claiming to represent Moo Deng issued a congratulatory message to Trump on the hippo’s behalf.
Malaysia
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim praised Trump’s “remarkable political comeback and victory” in a public statement, and said Malaysia is “ready to move forward with optimism, collaboration, and shared purpose.” Anwar’s statement included a plea for the United States to “use its considerable influence” to help end violence in Palestine; at a press conference, Anwar said he is hopeful that Trump’s victory will yield a “positive stance” toward peace in Gaza. The optimism of Anwar’s statement at first glance may seem surprising, given Trump’s uncompromising support for Israel, but many Malaysians share sentiments with many Muslim Americans who ultimately supported Trump because it was under a Democratic and not Republican administration that Israel went to war in Gaza.
Economically, Malaysia could experience both benefits and drawbacks from Trump 2.0: according to CIMB senior economist Vincent Loo, Malaysia can expect “increased export demand” following escalating China-U.S. trade competition, though heightened tariffs and trade barriers could negatively impact Malaysia’s trade volume.
Singapore
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong congratulated Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance, stating that the American people gave them an “overwhelming mandate” to lead the United States again. He expressed his intent to work closely with the incoming administration.
Like other states in the region, Singapore’s geopolitical focus in the next four years will be on navigating China-U.S. strategic competition. As an economy that is dependent on global trade and open flows of commerce, Singapore has a lot to lose if a China-U.S. trade war escalates. Temasek, one of Singapore’s state-owned investment firms, warned that a Trump presidency might lead to slower global growth, higher tariffs, and greater global uncertainty. Speaking to Channel News Asia, Singaporean political science professor Dr. Adrian Ang said Singapore will need to “work with other like-minded states that are committed to maintaining the multilateral trading order” in the face of potential U.S. protectionism.
Cambodia
Cambodia’s ruling father-son duo, former prime minister and current Senate President Hun Sen and Prime Minister Hun Manet, both commented on the election. Manet extended his “heartfelt congratulations” to Trump after his “historic return” to the White House. In a more bizarre line of commentary, Hun Sen provided three reasons for Trump’s triumph over Harris: First, that “American society is not ready to take women as its leaders”; second, that “it is likely that God decided that Donald Trump must compete with women”; and third, that the American people prioritized “pacifism” over war with Ukraine and Israel.
In commenting and making such political statements, Hun Sen continues to show that he remains deeply influential in Cambodia despite making a show of handing power to his son.
Both leaders’ praise for Trump shows that Cambodia welcomes the return of a president “less focused on democracy and human rights,” as argued earlier this year by the Lowy Institute’s Susannah Patton. While Cambodia will maintain similar regional worries about the impact of trade wars with China, local analysts suggested that Trump may focus on bilateral economic engagement and the Generalized System of Preferences, to Cambodia’s benefit.
Indonesia
Newly inaugurated Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto offered his “heartfelt” congratulations to Trump and hailed the “immense potential” of the two nations’ strategic partnership. A spokesperson for Prabowo also confirmed his upcoming visit to the United States where he will meet sitting President Joe Biden and could “possibly” become the first Southeast Asian leader to meet Trump since the election.
Prabowo, whose entry ban to the United States due to human rights concerns was lifted during the first Trump administration, is expected to foster positive relations with the returning administration due to likeminded “strongman” leadership styles. As Indonesia’s economy is less reliant than its neighbors on exports to the U.S., it may be somewhat shielded from any adverse effects of Trump’s protectionist policies.
Vietnam
The last country to react to the election results was Vietnam, whose party leaders congratulated Trump and “affirmed” the bilateral partnership on November 7. As an export-based economy with a trade surplus with the United States, Vietnam is bracing for the impact of tariffs and anti-dumping measures, but could potentially see production continue to shift from China to Vietnam. The country has already seen a number of corporations such as Samsung and Dell relocate from China to its “friendlier shores.”
However, Vietnamese officials said ahead of the election that they would nevertheless prefer to maintain the status quo in trade policy with the United States to avoid unpredictability. Vietnam may also have to worry about being pushed to abandon its bamboo diplomacy and pick sides between the United States and China.