The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a turning point not only for Syria but also for Islamist movements worldwide. For the Taliban, this moment is bittersweet. While the collapse of a rival regime offers a symbolic victory, the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) poses a direct ideological and strategic challenge. HTS’s promises of inclusivity, tolerance of minorities, and democratic reform highlight the Taliban’s regressive policies and authoritarianism. Moreover, the Syrian rebels’ victory could inspire opposition movements within Afghanistan and embolden moderate Taliban officials to push back against their leader’s hardline rule.
The surprising advances of opposition forces in the Syrian civil war and the subsequent collapse of the Assad regime have sent shockwaves across the globe. The Arab world has watched Syrian developments with mixed emotions – hope for change but also concerns over instability. The Taliban, however, greeted the event with overt enthusiasm.
Several Taliban-affiliated social media accounts celebrated the recent successes of the rebels in Syria. On December 8, the Taliban extended congratulations to the HTS-led forces, the rebel groups that toppled the Assad government, expressing hope that the power transition in Syria would lead to the establishment of a government aligned with “the aspirations of the people and Islamic values.” In Kabul and other Afghan provinces, the Taliban marked the victory with celebrations, distributing sweets and rallies.
Yet, behind the jubilation lies an uncomfortable reality: the fall of Assad may not bode well for the Taliban in the long term.
HTS and the Taliban: Diverging Paths
While the Syrian rebel group’s blend of nationalism and Islamism echoes the ideology of Afghanistan’s Taliban and Pakistan’s Tehreek-e-Taliban, the Syrian rebels may disappoint their Afghan counterparts. HTS’s policies and rhetoric, at least for now, indicate a markedly different approach to governance. Syrian opposition leaders and HTS have pledged to work toward an inclusive government that acknowledges Syria’s ethnic and religious diversity.
By contrast, the Taliban have systematically excluded women and minorities from public life, failing to form an inclusive administration. Religious minorities, such as Shiites, face widespread discrimination under Taliban rule, including restrictions on their religious practices.
HTS and its allies have signaled plans for a transitional 18-month government, the adoption of a new constitution, and elections to follow. While these promises remain to be fulfilled, they starkly contrast with the Taliban’s unyielding authoritarianism, characterized by its draconian policies against women and minorities. The Taliban’s decision to ban women from education entirely – including a recent ban on training in the health sector – has drawn international condemnation. Norway, once relatively open to engaging with the Taliban, recently expressed disappointment over the group’s restrictions on women’s education and rescinded plans to receive a Taliban envoy.
This mounting global isolation is a growing concern for moderate voices within the Taliban. Figures like Sirajuddin Haqqani, Taliban’s interior minister, and Abbas Stanikzai, deputy foreign minister, both influential Taliban officials, have publicly criticized the group’s leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, for his increasingly restrictive policies. Haqqani, in particular, has warned that such policies risk alienating the Afghan population and accelerating the Taliban’s demise.
The recent potential plans to restrict the activities of all foreign NGOs in Afghanistan, coupled with a ban on women’s education, deepened the country’s isolation and amplified internal dissent, especially within the Taliban ranks. Against this backdrop, the Syrian rebels’ apparent willingness to embrace inclusive governance may embolden moderate Taliban officials to more actively oppose Akhundzada’s hardline stance.
A Source of Inspiration for Opposition Forces
The collapse of the Assad regime might also have unexpected ripple effects in Afghanistan. While the Taliban celebrated the Syrian rebels’ victory, their jubilation could prove short-lived. The success of HTS in overthrowing a longstanding autocrat might embolden opposition forces in Afghanistan, as well as moderate members of the Taliban, who are growing increasingly disillusioned with Akhundzada’s one-man rule.
Former Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh, a prominent voice of resistance, likened the scenes of jubilation in Damascus to the period in 2001 when U.S.-backed forces toppled the Taliban. For the Taliban, the fall of Assad might inadvertently serve as a cautionary tale about the fragility of autocratic regimes.
The Syrian rebels’ victory offers a glimmer of hope to those opposing the Taliban. If HTS follows through on its promises of democratic rule and inclusivity, it could provide a counter-narrative to the Taliban’s rigid, exclusionary regime. For Afghans who yearn for change, HTS’s ascent may serve as an inspiring model despite the challenges Syria will undoubtedly face in its transition.
The Taliban’s Dwindling Legitimacy
The Taliban’s authoritarian rule, already criticized even by some Islamist allies, now faces an additional challenge: competition from a rival Islamist governance model. HTS’s pragmatic rhetoric, which includes engaging with minorities and planning democratic reforms, contrasts sharply with the Taliban’s growing isolation and rigidity.
Despite unofficial ties with a handful of countries, the Taliban government remains unrecognized by any state. Policies such as banning women’s education and restricting foreign NGOs have deepened Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis and further eroded the Taliban’s legitimacy.
Pragmatic Taliban leaders fear that Akhundzada’s hardline approach is unsustainable. The developments in Syria, particularly HTS’s apparent shift toward inclusivity, could widen existing rifts within the Taliban’s leadership. A successful Syrian transition – even if fraught with challenges – would underscore the Taliban’s failures and rigidity.
As celebrations erupt in Syria, the Taliban’s public displays of joy mask a deeper unease. Assad’s fall is a stark reminder that no authoritarian regime is invincible. For the Taliban, the success of the Syrian rebels raises troubling questions about their own future. HTS’s rise as a potential model of Islamist governance could undermine the Taliban’s claim to leadership in the Islamic world, further isolating them on the global stage.
While the Taliban handed out sweets in Kabul, they may soon realize that Assad’s fall is not the unmitigated victory they had hoped for. Instead, it is a warning of the challenges ahead – both from within and beyond Afghanistan’s borders.