Last month, an 18th-century 28-meter wooden shipwreck was discovered off the Mazandaran coast of the Caspian Sea in southern Iran. Operating under Russian influence, the ship likely comprised part of a merchant fleet carrying botanical cargo including buckwheat cultivated beside the Volga River. This fascinating archaeological discovery, shedding light on the boundary between ancient and modern trade practices, was only made possible by an unprecedented environmental breakdown and changing sea levels.
The Caspian Sea has long stood as a testament to the intricate relationship between nature and civilization. For centuries, it has provided sustenance, shaped cultures, and anchored economies across the region. Today, however, this vital body of water faces an unprecedented crisis. Its shores are receding, ecosystems are collapsing, and communities struggle to adapt to profound and rapid changes. Once a symbol of resilience and abundance, it now highlights a global failure to address humanity’s impact on the natural world.
Harbingers of Disaster
The evidence of the crisis is clear, particularly for those living along the northeast coast in Kazakhstan, where communities are confronting diminishing water resources and severe pollution. Over the past two decades, the Caspian’s water levels have dropped by nearly two meters, with shoreline retreat of up to 18 kilometers in parts of Kazakhstan where the sea is at its shallowest. Rising global temperatures and reduced inflow from the Volga River, which supplies 80 percent of the sea’s freshwater, have accelerated this trend.
Studies predict that if current patterns persist, the Caspian could lose up to 34 percent of its surface area and 18 meters of depth by 2100, rendering extensive stretches of shallow coastal land uninhabitable and devastating the livelihoods of the more than 10 million people who live by the coast, many of whom rely on the sea for fishing and trade industries. Already, once-thriving ports in coastal areas, like Mangystau, Kazakhstan, are making contingency plans to alter logistics routes, relocating ports and planning infrastructure adaptations ahead of further sea level changes.
Galina Chernova, director of Globus, an NGO based in Atyrau, Kazakhstan that focuses on biodiversity conservation and sustainable development (and partner of the Save the Caspian Sea Campaign), lives and works on the frontline: “Every day we lose more of what makes our community whole. The sea has always been our lifeline, but now we watch it disappear.”
The impact of large-scale oil and gas extraction has further compounded these challenges. The Tengiz oil field, which produced a record 699,000 barrels of oil daily in early October of last year, and the Kashagan offshore project, known for its environmental controversies, have significantly contributed to habitat destruction and pollution. These record figures are only set to increase, with production output in the Tengiz planned to rocket to 850,000 bpd in the first half of 2025. Research has identified heavy metal contamination, including mercury and cadmium, in water and soil, spiking around oil extraction facilities. This toxic legacy threatens marine biodiversity, including the critically endangered Caspian seal, whose population has declined by over 95 percent in the last century and numbers less than 70,000.
The environmental consequences are inseparable from the human cost. Communities reliant on fishing are experiencing dwindling catches, with some species disappearing entirely due to habitat loss and pollution. The International Unit for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Assessment in 2022 classified all five species of Caspian sturgeon, except for the sterlet (Acipenser ruthenus), as critically endangered. Coastal towns like Aytrau, once dependent on tourism and maritime trade, face economic collapse as the receding shoreline leaves harbors with increasing operational difficulty.
Public health is also at risk. Studies have linked exposure to polluted water, emissions, and soil to increased rates of cancer and respiratory illnesses among local populations, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive intervention. The situation has been particularly dire in the village of Berezovka, located just five kilometers from the Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field. Residents have reported migraines, dizziness, hair loss, anemia, and deteriorating vision, which they attribute to exposure to toxic emissions from nearby oil operations. Numerous health studies confirmed the presence of 25 toxic chemicals in the air around Berezovka, leaving villagers fighting for their right to health and justice, demanding relocation and compensation due to the severe health impacts caused by industrial pollution.
The Caspian’s governance is as complex as its ecosystem. The littoral states – Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – have yet to establish a unified framework for sustainable resource management. Existing agreements are often undermined by competing national interests, leaving the region’s ecological future uncertain. The 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea marked progress, but it lacks enforceable environmental protections. Many contracts governing oil extraction date back to the 1990s, when environmental oversight was minimal. These agreements require urgent revision to align with modern standards and address escalating climate risks.
The Tehran Framework Convention on the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea and its protocols offer an important legal foundation for cooperation on environmental issues. However, the effectiveness of this convention remains limited by insufficient implementation and the absence of binding commitments among the littoral states. Protocols under the convention, such as those related to oil pollution incidents and pollution from land-based sources and activities, provide a framework for action but lack robust enforcement mechanisms. The region’s ecological challenges demand a more proactive approach that strengthens these existing agreements and ensures that environmental protection is prioritized alongside economic development.
Vadim Ni on the shore of the Caspian. Photo provided by author.
Pathways to Solutions
The Caspian’s unique geography demands regional cooperation. The Caspian’s littoral states must prioritize the long-term health of the sea over short-term economic gains. Establishing a regional environmental task force could provide oversight and enforce sustainable practices. Additionally, pressure from multilateral organizations and advocacy groups can play a vital role in holding corporations accountable and promoting stricter regulatory frameworks. International partnerships, such as those facilitated by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), could offer technical expertise and funding for restoration projects.
The Caspian Sea’s plight is not an isolated regional concern; it is emblematic of the global struggle to balance environmental stewardship with economic development. The cleanup of the Rhine River in Europe demonstrates that even heavily polluted waterways can recover through coordinated international effort. Similar initiatives should focus on pollution reduction, habitat restoration, and investments in renewable energy to provide alternatives to fossil fuel extraction, while ensuring oil extraction is transparent and extractors are accountable.
The newly founded “Save the Caspian Sea” campaign aims to bring together regional organizations and activists into one united entity to tackle these multifaceted challenges and advance transparency, accountability, and sustainable practices. Transparency is a key priority. Corporations operating in the region must disclose the environmental impacts of their activities and independent audits are essential to ensure compliance with international standards. Rigorous environmental assessments must precede any new industrial projects and should include input from local communities to reflect their needs and concerns. Inclusive governance is not just a moral imperative but a practical necessity for sustainable solutions.
The Caspian Sea has been a cradle of civilization, a repository of unique biodiversity, and a vital economic resource for millennia. Allowing it to succumb to industrial exploitation and climate-induced desiccation would be an irreversible tragedy. This is not merely an environmental issue; it is a profound moral challenge that future generations will neither forget nor forgive. The region risks a second Aral Sea disaster on a far greater scale.
Time is of the essence. The decisions made today will shape the future of the Caspian and the millions who depend on it. With collective action and unwavering commitment, we can reverse the tide of destruction and preserve this vital ecosystem for generations to come. Otherwise, maritime practice in the Caspian will be reserved for the archaeologists.