“If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries,” U.S. President Donald Trump said in a rambling Truth Social post on January 22, two days after returning to the presidency.
For years, Trump has bragged that he could force an end to the Russia-Ukraine war in a single day.
Ahead of an expected call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the new U.S. president’s comments present a confusing array of sentiments, both lauding and lashing out at Russia. He decries the so-called “Russia HOAX” – the allegation that Russia interfered in the 2016 election on his behalf – and notes Russia’s contributions to the Allied victory in World War II, but then claims the Russian economy is failing under Putin as a result of the “ridiculous” war.
In the first official Russian response to the message, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said during a January 23 briefing, “We don’t see any particularly new elements here. You know that Trump, in the first iteration of his presidency, was the American president who most often resorted to sanctions methods.” He went on to say that Russia was ready for an “equal and respectful” dialogue. Peskov also said that there were no preparations underway for a meeting between Trump and Putin.
This is a shift from comments Peskov made earlier in January: “We see that Mr. Trump is declaring his readiness to solve problems through dialogue. We welcome that.”
Russian commentators have not viewed Trump’s latest Truth Social post as an olive branch.
The governments of Central Asia, meanwhile, are surely paying attention to the rhetoric flying between Russia and the United States, trying to gauge their own path forward.
The previous U.S. administration, under President Joe Biden, took a careful approach to sanctions targeting Central Asian entities involved in circumventing restrictions slapped on Russia. Central Asian businesses and elites have arguably profited from the ways the war has shifted trade pathways in Eurasia. One the one hand, the West has increasingly paid attention to routes like the Middle Corridor, which circumvent Russia; on the other, Central Asia remains a prime node in trade to and from Russia. In both cases, Central Asia benefits. This is reflected in regional trade statistics.
While a handful of Central Asian companies have been subject to secondary sanctions since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the hammer has not fallen broadly on the region’s economies. The Biden administration accepted Central Asia’s difficult geopolitical position, and tried to find nuanced ways to restrict Russia via sanctions without alienating the governments of Central Asia.
Trump is not known for such nuanced policymaking. Rather, his “America First” ideology is steeped in nationalism and a transactional attitude, which may not provide the space for such a careful diplomatic dance.
Trump has long bragged that he could swiftly end the war between Russia and Ukraine. In a CNN town hall in May 2023, Trump was asked whether he would give Ukraine weapons and funding if he were re-elected. He responded that “If I’m president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.”
When pressed, he said he would meet with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “They both have weaknesses and they both have strengths,” Trump said. “And within 24 hours that war will be settled. It will be over. It will be absolutely over.”
At the time, Trump wouldn’t directly respond to the question of whether he wanted Ukraine to “win” the war or not. Instead, he shifted the conversation to his belief that Europe should contribute more to the war effort. “I want Europe to put up more money,” he said.
On the campaign trail, Trump repeated his insistence that he could force an end to the war without offering concrete plans as to how. He has also stated a broad belief that U.S. allies – from NATO to those in the Pacific – should pay more.
Transposing this attitude onto Central Asia-U.S. relations, it’s entirely possible that Trump will demand that the region’s countries “do more” with respect to Russia if his efforts to drag Putin and Zelenskyy to the negotiating table fail.
Much will depend on how Trump and Putin’s next conversation goes, and then whatever conversation Trump eventually has with Zelenskyy. Triangulating peace out of the present situation will not be easy, and it will certainly take more than 24 hours.