Yesterday, Reuters reported that a number of European leaders are planning trips to Vietnam to push forward diplomatic and economic ties, as a possible hedge against the uncertain state of diplomatic and trade relations with the United States.
Citing a senior European Union source, the news agency reported that Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, could visit the country in May, “with the goal of formally upgrading ties.” The source also said that French President Emmanuel Macron could follow later in the month, returning the visit that Communist Party of Vietnam chief To Lam made to Paris in October. According to the Reuters report, EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic may precede von der Leyen and Macron to Vietnam in April.
As Reuters describes it, the purpose of the trips, which have been planned for some time but have not yet been confirmed, is a way for European leaders to hedge against the economic and strategic disruptions of the Trump administration.
Certain recent events, including Vice President J.D. Vance’s excoriating speech at the Munich Security Conference last month and last week’s remarkable confrontation between Vance, President Donald Trump, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, have shaken European strategic assumptions and prompted actions to diversify Europe’s economic and political relationships. Then, the administration imposed 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, in addition to raising its tariffs on Chinese goods to 20 percent. All three have either responded in kind or have promised to do so, raising fears of an unraveling of the currently global trading regime.
Last month, von der Leyen delivered a video address to the ASEAN Future Forum in Hanoi, during which she hailed the state of relations between the EU and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), referencing their shared belief in “openness, free and fair trade, and effective partnerships that drive development and prosperity,” according to a report in Vietnamese state media. She also said that with “the tide of tariffs and export controls is rising,” the EU, currently ASEAN’s third-largest trading partner, wished “to create new opportunities to trade and invest with trusted partners.”
The Trump administration also represents potential challenges for Vietnam. While the U.S. and Vietnam have experienced a steady strategic convergence in recent years – marked by the historic establishment of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in September 2023 – the country could come under scrutiny for its massive trade surplus with the U.S., which grew by nearly a fifth in 2024, hitting a record high of $123.5 billion. It now has the third-largest trade surplus with the U.S., behind only China and Mexico – both of which have been hit with tariffs since the Trump administration took office in January. The country is especially vulnerable in light of reports that Chinese firms have set up factories in Vietnam specifically to avoid tariffs on goods from China
If Vietnam is subjected to U.S. trade retaliation, the senior EU official told Reuters, it may result in more Vietnamese exports to the EU and greater European investment in Vietnam. EU-Vietnam trade relations have grown steadily since the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVTFA) came into force in 2020.
The EU was Vietnam’s third-largest export market in 2024, importing $52 billion worth of goods, compared to $136.6 billion for the United States. Vietnam was the EU’s 17th biggest trade partner and its largest in ASEAN. In addition to the EVFTA, the EU has signed a free trade agreement with Singapore–and is currently negotiating similar trade pacts with Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
Even if Vietnam manages to avoid the worst of the Trump administration’s wrath – Hanoi has already pledged to buy more U.S. aircraft, liquefied natural gas, and other products – there is a sound strategic sense in further developing the trade and investment relations between the EU and ASEAN.
While Brussels and Southeast Asia’s governments have not always seen eye to eye on questions like climate change, environmental protection, and human rights – issues that have complicated the FTA negotiations with Indonesia and Indonesia in particular – their areas of shared interest are becoming more apparent with every step the Trump administration takes toward dismantling the current global order.