The expression “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” – the more things change, the more they stay the same – has become a common description of Pakistan’s repeated cycles of crises and its abiding struggle to ensure political stability, internal security, and economic growth.
The performance of the current coalition government, which took office in February 2024 under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, offers few grounds for optimism. With domestic politics gravely polarized, security increasingly fragile, and the economy barely stable, there is little sign yet of an end to the chronic dysfunction that has thwarted the welfare of Pakistan’s 250 million people.
A Political Divide
The greatest challenge facing Sharif’s government is the crisis arising from the incarceration of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the disputed results of general elections, held in February 2024. Khan, who leads the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI or Pakistan Justice Movement), has been in prison since May 2023 and currently faces more than 100 charges ranging from corruption to the instigation of violence. Although acquitted in the most serious cases relating to breaches of national security and incitement to violence, Khan is unlikely to be offered any immediate relief. In January he received a 14-year jail sentence for illegally receiving land from a property tycoon to establish a charitable trust.
Notwithstanding these setbacks, Khan can fairly claim to be the country’s most popular politician. He has also consistently maintained his innocence and insisted that he is the victim of a political witch-hunt led by a military establishment he believes is determined to deny him his mandate by endorsing fraudulent election results.
According to those results, the PTI emerged as the second largest party in the National Assembly with 92 seats, behind Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which gained 98 seats. However, the PTI believes that it won double its official tally and has called for the restoration of its “stolen mandate.”
Khan’s indignation, however, predates these events and reaches back to April 2022, when he was removed from office through a parliamentary vote of no-confidence. He claims the ouster was orchestrated by the military high command – aided and abetted by the United States. The crisis escalated in May 2023 after Khan was arrested on charges of corruption, sparking countrywide demonstrations and the detention of hundreds of his supporters, who were accused of vandalizing military property. Last December, more than 60 civilians were controversially sentenced by military courts for their part in those demonstrations.