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Flashpoints
Will China’s military rival the United States’ in the Pacific? Will Japan abandon the constitutional fetters on its own military? How will India respond to the String of Pearls strategy? The Diplomat has put together a team of leading analysts to offer must-read, regular commentary on the big defense and security issues in the Asia-Pacific.
Between China’s Advance and America’s Retreat: Europe’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy
By Angelo M’BA and Douglas Brenton Anderson
Trump’s recent measures have cemented a split between Washington and Brussels, but that won’t automatically translate into gains for Beijing.
Tracking Conflict in the Asia-Pacific: April 2025 Update
By ACLED Asia Pacific Team
An overview of conflict, from protests to military and militant violence, in the Asia-Pacific in March 2025.
Testing a Rival’s Response: China’s Gray Zone Tactics in Australia
By Dilnoza Ubaydullaeva
China’s gradual incremental power projection in Australian waters is a calculated gray zone strategy.
On Defense, Trump’s Early Moves in Asia Have Been Notably Normal
By Tom Corben
Despite its high-decibel MAGA rhetoric, the administration has largely upheld the regional commitments made during Joe Biden's presidency.
The DNI Report Reveals Why the US Must Enhance Deterrence
By Alex Alfirraz Scheers
A failure to enhance deterrence could incentivize Beijing and Moscow to undertake greater geopolitical risks at the United States’ expense.
China Coast Guard Makes Its Longest Intrusion Into Disputed East China Sea Waters
By Takahashi Kosuke
The record-setting intrusion occurred on the same day that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi came to Tokyo.
Malaysia to Tighten Chip Controls After Pressure From US, Report Says
By Sebastian Strangio
The Trump administration is investigating the illicit export of restricted Nvidia graphics processing units to China.
Collateral Damage: UN Sanctions on North Korea at Risk in Putin-Trump Dealings
By Aaron Arnold
Neither Trump nor Putin has much incentive to address the North Korea issue, but leaving it off the table risks putting the nail in the coffin of the U.N.'s nonproliferation efforts.
The ‘Reverse Kissinger’ Strategy Is Based on Bad History
By David Brostoff
The idea relies on a historical fallacy: Kissinger didn’t create the Sino-Soviet split. He merely took advantage of it.
The AI Superpower Rivalry: A Zero-sum Game Between China and the United States?
By Dingding Chen, Yingfan Chen, and Runyu Huang
Reducing the rivalry to a simplistic “who’s winning” frame overlooks its complexity: The future of AI will be defined by multiple specialized and adaptable systems, not a single dominant architecture.
How Russia-US Talks on Ukraine Shake Taiwanese Confidence in America’s Commitment
By Kuan-chen Lee
Survey findings reveal a clear pattern: Taiwanese perceptions of U.S. credibility are closely tied to how Washington handles its global commitments.
Noshki Bus Attack: The Baloch Liberation Army’s Evolving Suicide Attack Strategy
By Mehrzaad Baluch
Days after a major train hijacking, the BLA targeted buses carrying Pakistani security forces. Both attacks highlight the BLA's new strategy of combining suicide attacks with conventional guerrilla warfare.
Afghanistan, Pakistan Point Fingers Over Islamic State Presence
By Sahibzada Muhammad Usman
Each government is attempting to blame the other for the continued activities of ISKP. Meanwhile, the group continues to conduct attacks.
Quantum: A New Frontier of China-US Competition
By Brian Moscioni
The U.S. and China find themselves headed for another high-stakes technology competition rooted in fears of being left behind and paranoia.
Safeguarding Climate Action Amid Political Transitions in Asia
By Betty Wang and Farwa Aamer
Climate action in many Asian nations remains heavily leadership-driven, making it particularly susceptible to disruption.
Atomic Wars: Nuclear Energy Competition in Southeast Asia
By Kaitlyn Flynn
As governments in the region seek to secure their energy futures, nuclear cooperation is emerging as a new front of strategic jockeying.
The South China Sea: Making the Philippines-US Alliance Work Under Trump 2.0
By Julio Amador III
The most crucial question remains: How to deter China?
Can Trump Restart Talks With North Korea?
By MIYAMOTO Satoru
There is reason to be skeptical.
Tracking Conflict in the Asia-Pacific: March 2025 Update
By ACLED Asia Pacific Team
An overview of conflict, from protests to military and militant violence, in the Asia-Pacific in February 2025.
How China Can Retaliate in the US Trade War
By MacKenna J. Rawlins
The inconsistent trade policy coming from Washington leaves Beijing with no clear path to take to get out of the crosshairs. That leaves retaliation as the most likely response.
The COVID-19 ‘Lab-Leak Origin’ Theory: Fact or Fiction?
By Florence Débarre
The U.S. government is increasingly supporting the “lab leak” theory. But with no new evidence released, it’s impossible to evaluate the accuracy of that conclusion.
Zelenskyy at the White House: The Rapid Crumbling of US Leadership Creates a Golden Opportunity for China
By Zi Yang
Amid a near-complete reversal in U.S. foreign policy, more nations may look to China to fill the role that the United States once played – an unthinkable prospect just a few months ago.
Budget Cuts, Insufficient Implementation, and Weak Enforcement Are Undermining Taiwan’s Cyber Defenses
By Eryk Waligora
The question is no longer if Taiwan will be targeted, but whether it will be ready when the next cyberattack hits.
Is There an Axis of Autocracy?
By Bonnie Girard
At heart, what binds China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia is a set of transactional relationships.
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