Security

What Happened: Over the course of 2020, China ramped up its military activity near Taiwan, frequently sending PLA aircraft and vessels across the median line of the Taiwan Strait. That stoked fears that Beijing may be preparing for an actual military operation against Taiwan. How likely is that, and what form would it take?

Our Focus: “Of course, the best option for China is to unify Taiwan without having to use force,” writes Ying-Yu Lin, an expert on cross-strait military affairs. “However, if the goal of ‘peaceful unification’ with Taiwan is beyond reach anytime soon, Beijing may choose to intimidate Taiwan in a way that does not involve a large-scale deployment of forces.”

What Comes Next: Except China to continue its “gray-zone operations” well below the threshold of an actual military clash, much less outright invasion. But even if an attack seems unlikely, keep in mind that Beijing will be satisfied with nothing less than the absorption of Taiwan into China in the long term. All its moves are aimed at that ultimate goal.

Interview

Farkhod Tolipov of Caravan of Knowledge on Uzbekistan’s political progress: “Next year Uzbekistan will conduct presidential elections, which will be a new test for political system of the country.”

Northeast Asia

Throughout much of 2020, the countries of Northeast Asia were a rare bright spot in containing COVID-19. But with winter setting in, the situation has taken a turn for the worse. South Korea is struggling with its worst outbreak yet; case counts are climbing in Japan; Mongolia announced its first known case of local transmission earlier this month; North Korea continues to insist COVID-19 hasn’t arrived but experts are skeptical. Can regional countries regain control over the pandemic?

South Asia

A recent incident of vandalism in an iPhone manufacturing facility in Bangalore as well as ongoing farmers' protests on the outskirts of New Delhi point to the perils of both under- and overegulation of the Indian economy. In India, large swathes of the public remain indifferently committed to free markets as government policies oscillate between protectionism and liberalized economic regimes. How the farmers' protests in India eventually unfold will serve as an indicator of how Prime Minister Narendra Modi would seek to steer his country away from deepening economic distress.

Southeast Asia

Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party has entered a week-long plenum to ready personnel appointments for next month’s massive 13th National Party Congress. As per tradition, rumors and speculation are swirling about who will be appointed to the “four pillars” – the posts of state president, prime minister, Communist Party general secretary, and chairperson of the national assembly – for the coming five-year term.

Central Asia

Campaigning for Kazakhstan's parliamentary election kicked off this week, but it will be very easy to miss. The ruling Nur Otan party currently holds 84 of 98 elected seats; the remainder are filled by pro-government parties. Any hint of opposition has been completely locked out of the election set for January 10.

ECONOMY

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Australia’s exports to China from January to July 2020. In recent months, China has targeted imports from Australia, from tariffs on barley and wine to an unofficial boycott of Australian coal. Iron ore, which Chinese industry depends on, is the one sector largely unaffected.

Data subject to 'No commodity details' or 'No value details' confidentiality restrictions are excluded from aggregates in this graph. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian trade in goods in China 2020

SOCIETY

“Mandi”: A Hindi word referring to a marketplace, particularly one where farmers sell their produce. The fate of government-regulated mandis is at the core of the ongoing farmers’ protest in India.

The Diplomat Asks

Join us on Dec. 21 at 9 pm EST as The Diplomat's editors look back at the biggest events of 2020.