POLITICS

What Happened: Seven months since the military coup in Myanmar, the political wing of the rebel Arakan Army (AA) has significantly expanded its administrative and judicial mechanisms across Rakhine State in western Myanmar, with hundreds of its personnel now effectively administering the region independently of the military junta that rules in Naypyidaw. It’s a fascinating case study of how one ethnic armed group is moving from violent resistance to governance.

Our Focus: According to its commander-in-chief, the AA is implementing “a governance mechanism with strong institutions for public administrative affairs including administration, judiciary, and public security.” For many locals – Arakan and Rohingya alike – it’s a welcome change. “People have been treated with discrimination by the previous successive governmental departments, including the police and the soldiers,” Khaing Kaung San, founder and executive director of the Rakhine State-based Wan Lark Foundation, told The Diplomat. “Right now, the existence of the AA with its newly introduced Judiciary and Complaints System weakens the arbitrary acts.”

What Comes Next: Can the AA truly create a model of effective – and inclusive – governance in the violence-plagued Rakhine State? And what happens when the Tatmadaw look to take back the ground they have lost? The military junta had sought AA’s support, but instead of allying with the Tatmadaw the AA looked to consolidate control over its base in Rakhine State. A potential counteroffensive from the Tatmadaw could mark a return to the violence that has already displaced more than 230,000 civilians in the past few years.

INTERVIEW

Elizabeth Threlkeld, senior fellow and deputy director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, on what a Taliban government in Kabul means for China-Pakistan relations: “While Pakistan views the Taliban takeover as a positive development, China is less sanguine... Pakistan will remain a useful go-between for China given its ties to the Taliban, but the group’s rise could put a strain on the ‘iron brotherhood.’”

Northeast Asia

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry is in Japan and China this week as part of broader efforts to entice stronger climate commitments ahead of a U.N. summit in November. Climate change is one of the very few bright spots in China-U.S. relations; watch to see if the genial tone of Kerry’s April visit to China can be maintained this week.

South Asia

The Taliban took control of the airport in Kabul on Tuesday, cementing their control over Afghanistan as the last U.S. troops evacuated. Dhaka is watching nervously, given the long history of Afghanistan-trained fighters invigorating terror networks in Bangladesh. The country is already facing a resurgence of extremism; will the Taliban victory further embolden similarly-minded Bangladeshis?

Southeast Asia

This week, Thai lawmakers will hold a no-confidence debate targeting Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and five members of his cabinet over their poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The debate, which is scheduled to last four days before a vote on Saturday, comes amid a persistent campaign of protests – some of which have elicited a violent response from police – demanding Prayut’s resignation in addition to other far-reaching political reforms.

Central Asia

The final U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan, but some Americans and many Afghans remain in the country who want to leave. What comes next is steeped in uncertainty. The Taliban are in power, but the Islamic State Khorasan made its presence devastatingly known in the final days of the withdrawal. 

Johns Hopkins University CSSE COVID-19 Data

With skyrocketing COVID-19 case counts finally coming down, Indonesia is slowly returning to normal.

SECURITY

Utsuro-bune, literally “hollow ship” in Japanese, refers to an early UFO legend.

The Diplomat Asks

Over the past months, China and India have continued the slow process of disengaging along sections of their disputed border in Ladakh. How do things stand along the border today?

Join us on September 2 at 8 a.m. U.S. Eastern time for an expert overview of the past, present, and future of the Sino-Indian border dispute, and the implications for China-India relations writ large.