SECURITY

What Happened: The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan, or GBAO, has been under an internet blackout for the past three months, after protests surged following the killing of a local man by security services. Meanwhile, the state military forces are ramping up their already disproportionate presence in the region to crack down on any unrest. It’s the latest chapter in often bloody tensions between the GBAO and the central government in Dushanbe. The region saw clashes in 2012, 2014, and 2018; is another round of violence ahead?

Our Focus: Pamiris, the culturally and linguistically distinct group native to the GBAO, have long chafed under what they see as repression from Dushanbe. “I think that if the government does not respond to the demands of the people there will be a conflict, people will rise up, which will deteriorate the situation even further. People got to a point of no return, there is no freedom of speech,” said one Pamiri who took part in a protest that ended with security forces shooting into the crowd. “I want peace at home, but at the moment, the government is at the foundation of the problem.”

What Comes Next: The protests sparked a heavy-handed state response, including the internet blackout as well as an increased military presence. That, in turn, has only stoked outrage among Pamiris. Now analysts and locals alike are worried about a slide into outright warfare. “The situation in Badakhshan is becoming increasingly tense. The area is surrounded by checkpoints with heavily armed personnel. The army detains people, they behave like invaders in a foreign country,” Alim Sherzamonov, a civil society activist from Khorog, tells The Diplomat.

INTERVIEW

Abby Seiff, author of the book “Troubling the Water: A Dying Lake and a Vanishing World in Cambodia,” on the economic implications of the Tonle Sap’s ecological collapse: “A significant portion of Cambodia’s population (16.7 million) directly relies on the lake, with an even bigger portion relying indirectly… those who rely on the lake directly are just facing absolute devastation. These are people who are already among the poorest and most vulnerable.”

Northeast Asia

The Russian invasion of Ukraine put China in an awkward position diplomatically while also stranding Chinese citizens in a war zone. Now it will overshadow China’s marquee annual political event: the “two sessions,” dual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the CPPCC in Beijing. The meetings kick off on Friday and will dominate headlines in China’s state media for the next two weeks – regardless of what’s happening in Ukraine.

South Asia

India’s decision to abstain from a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked recriminations. India’s close relationship with Russia – and its growing ties with the United States – will face another test this week when the U.N. General Assembly votes on a similar resolution.

Southeast Asia

Like the rest of the world, Southeast Asian governments are this week scrambling to respond to Russia’s unfolding and increasingly violent invasion of Ukraine. So far, most have been surprisingly cautious, expressing varying degrees of concern without condemning Russia or its action directly, which was more or less the tone of the anodyne statement released by ASEAN over the weekend. The most outspoken nation, as during Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014, has been Singapore, which has already announced sanctions on Russia, describing the attack as “an unprovoked military invasion of a sovereign state.”

Central Asia

The Central Asian states are scrambling to help their citizens get out of Ukraine, in part because they didn't seem to think the Russian invasion would materialize. Now that it has, they're in a tough spot: Some (Tajikistan) have stayed silent, given their reliance on the Russian market to absorb their workers, while others (Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov) have come out in support. In the middle are Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, both trying to stay neutral but the former with long-simmering concerns about Russian designs on the northern parts of the country.

Logistics performance is strongly correlated to a successful COVID-19 vaccination drive – with some intriguing exceptions.

SECURITY

Teki kichi kugeki noryoku, Japanese for “the capability to attack enemy bases.” Usually translated simply as “offensive strike,” the phrase is the subject of a key debate over where to set the limits of Japan’s military capabilities.