China-Philippines maritime disputes

Beijing views deepening Philippines-U.S. military cooperation as a direct security challenge, not only in the South China Sea but also in the Taiwan Strait.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has pledged to bolster Manila's capacity to push back against Beijing's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

The informal grouping, established last May, is intended to counter China's assertive behavior in the South China Sea.

Tensions over Scarborough Shoal have increased markedly since the middle of last year, when Beijing and Manila reached an "understanding" over another disputed shoal.

Major developments in the South China Sea in 2024 do not augur well for 2025. 

Speaking in Manila, Iwaya Takeshi said that his country's partnership with Southeast Asia was "vital for regional peace and stability,”

2025 is shaping up as another year of friction and contention in disputed parts of the South China Sea.

China has condemned Manila's planned acquisition, which it says poses a "substantial threat to regional peace and security."

The confrontations at Scarborough and Sabina shoals indicate that Beijing has no intention of easing off on its pressure campaign in disputed waters.

The move was a direct response to the Philippines' enactment of two new laws aimed at strengthening the country's own maritime claims.

From its base in Luzon, the Typhon land-based missile system has the ability to strike targets in mainland China.

“He was not a strategic thinker. His foreign policy flowed from his personal likes and dislikes.”

Faced with a country indifferent to reputational costs, Manila’s campaign to illuminate China’s gray-zone activities in the South China Sea is producing diminishing returns.

The challenge for the various parties is to insulate the China-Philippines tussle from broader regional and global tensions.

The withdrawal of the PCG's flagship has prompted some to claim that Beijing has forced Manila to back down at Sabina Shoal.

The two nations' defense ministers have pledged to sign an MoU on defense cooperation by the end of the year.

The incident comes a week after a similar encounter near the shoal, which lies 140 kilometers off the coast of the Philippines' westernmost island, Palawan.

The clash suggests that Beijing's pressure campaign, previously focused on Second Thomas Shoal, is moving to other parts of the Spratly Islands.

The encounter over Scarborough Shoal was the first aerial run-in since high-seas hostilities between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea started to flare last year.

An analysis of the Philippines’ recent resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal suggests that the understanding can, in fact, satisfy both sides’ red lines.

The Philippine military said three Chinese navy ships “tailed” the four-nation maneuvers off the western coast of the Philippines.

Manila said that “no untoward incidents" took place during Saturday's mission to Second Thomas Shoal, but the two sides continue to trade public barbs.

The agreement, which is designed to reduce tensions at Second Thomas Shoal, was the subject of immediate disagreement between Beijing and Manila.

China and the Philippines have created such emergency telephone hotlines at lower levels in the past to better manage disputes.