China zero-tolerance COVID policy

Looking back at China’s response to COVID-19 and the subsequent recovery process.

While not as dramatic as China’s abandonment of the zero-COVID policy in late 2022, the underlying reasons for the surprising turn in economic policy are quite similar. 

More than a year after China scrapped its zero-COVID policy, it has become clear that most analysts underestimated the adverse impacts on business and consumer sentiment. 

The China bulls were wrong – but the China declinists may be wrong as well.

Zero COVID artificially and unnecessarily created the perfect condition for a political thunderstorm that could shake the ruling legitimacy and control mechanism of the party-state.

Why was China’s vaccination campaign so little, so late? The key lies in understanding cadres’ daily working routine under Xi Jinping.

We tend to think China has a strict, top-down COVID-19 policy, but local variation is what really shaped the outcome, from beginning to end. 

China’s central government aimed to modify the zero COVID policy incrementally following the 20th Party Congress. What went wrong?

Ending “zero COVID” is Beijing’s best option, but it comes at the worst possible time.

The National Health Commission scrapped many of China's most stringent anti-pandemic regulations, including routine, mandatory PCR testing.

China’s infamous Great Firewall cracked amid late November’s protests – the exact thing the censorship apparatus was designed to prevent.

Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Chengdu, and other major cities announced they were easing testing requirements and controls on movement.