military

The publication last month of a monograph which dramatically overturns longstanding assumptions about the defense of Taiwan should make sobering reading for US policymakers.

The 20th anniversary earlier this month of the Tiananmen tragedy has given China-watchers an opportunity to take stock of their analyses over the past two decades. And, given the recent media and policy attention lavished on China’s maritime ambitions, it is worth looking back at Western studies of the Chinese navy and its impressive advances in recent years.

However, a closer look at many of those predictions shows, at best, a patchy record of success – and, at worst, some worrying analytical shortcomings.

Last month was the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). At the naval parade held to commemorate the event, in front of delegations from 29 countries, PLAN Commander General Wu Shengli declared that Beijing intended to build aircraft carriers, spurring widespread speculation over China’s blue-water ambitions.