Second Thomas Shoal

Major developments in the South China Sea in 2024 do not augur well for 2025. 

The confrontations at Scarborough and Sabina shoals indicate that Beijing has no intention of easing off on its pressure campaign in disputed waters.

Faced with a country indifferent to reputational costs, Manila’s campaign to illuminate China’s gray-zone activities in the South China Sea is producing diminishing returns.

The incident comes a week after a similar encounter near the shoal, which lies 140 kilometers off the coast of the Philippines' westernmost island, Palawan.

An analysis of the Philippines’ recent resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal suggests that the understanding can, in fact, satisfy both sides’ red lines.

The two nations are strengthening their maritime cooperation against a backdrop of Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.

The announcement caps off two years that have seen a considerable strategic convergence between the two long-standing allies.

Manila said that “no untoward incidents" took place during Saturday's mission to Second Thomas Shoal, but the two sides continue to trade public barbs.

The agreement, which is designed to reduce tensions at Second Thomas Shoal, was the subject of immediate disagreement between Beijing and Manila.

Despite pledging to de-escalate tensions at Second Thomas Shoal, Beijing and Manila continue to exchange rhetorical fire.

The two sides pledged this week to de-escalate the situation after a June 17 clash at a disputed shoal in the Spratly Islands.

The "frank and constructive discussions” came two weeks after a major clash close to Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands.