Tajikistan

How did I do on my outlook for Central Asia 2021? 

After nearly three months in limbo in a Tajik sanitorium, a group of 191 Afghans, many U.S.-trained pilots, have been flown out of the region.

At the EU-Central Asia Economic Forum, the EU kept its rhetoric uncontroversial. However, Central Asian countries signaled they may respond well to more ambitious EU goals.

With no regional options for truly “like-minded” partners, France seems to be settling on Tajikistan as the best bet.

Central Asian governments seem more sensitive to domestic and regional threats possibly invigorated by the Taliban’s rise to power.

Both Russia and Pakistan have reportedly urged Tajikistan and the Taliban to cool off their war of words, concerned about conflict on the border.

With Uzbekistan under pressure, those who landed in Termez are being moved to the UAE. Those in Tajikistan are waiting. 

By virtue of geography, Dushanbe is a critical actor in the international community’s ongoing engagement with Afghanistan.

Both countries have been willing to take some Afghan refugees in, but only temporarily. 

Presidential meetings in Central Asia are often dismissed for a lack of concrete results and for their exclusively ceremonial character. But there are good reasons to take the latest meeting seriously.

The Central Asian republics can learn from the experience of Southeast Asia and use the crisis in Afghanistan to spur forward regional cooperation at a time of great power competition.