U.S.-China conflict

A persistent commitment to hedging in South and Southeast Asia raises concerns about U.S. force projection into the region during a potential conflict with China. 

China’s approach to deterrence involves compelling as well as dissuading, and is intertwined with the idea of “war control.”

In the future, China may incorporate nuclear weapons into its framework of political threats, intimidation, and even the use of force to achieve its international goals.

Indonesia could unwittingly be drawn into great-power military conflict due to its strategic location, especially if a China-U.S. clash happens in Indonesian waters.

Insights from Miranda Priebe 

A direct China-U.S. conflict would cause hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars’ worth of economic damage through business disruptions alone.

12 months of Western operations in Ukraine could hold valuable lessons for Chinese security interests in North Korea. 

Insights from Mark Cancian.

Success depends on decreasing the perceived likelihood that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would succeed, minimizing the perceived benefits, and increasing the expected costs. 

China's new diplomatic “countermeasures” to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan strike at the Biden administration's priority areas for the relationship.

Rethinking “strategic ambiguity” is important, but in the meantime Washington must compensate for its dwindling military advantage over China with more costly signals of political resolve.