U.S. deterrence

Success depends on decreasing the perceived likelihood that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would succeed, minimizing the perceived benefits, and increasing the expected costs. 

Rethinking “strategic ambiguity” is important, but in the meantime Washington must compensate for its dwindling military advantage over China with more costly signals of political resolve.

The arguments that U.S. credibility on Taiwan hinges on Ukraine is the latest version of the discredited domino theory.

The strategic lessons to be learned in a potential Ukraine conflict are limited – and potentially misleading when applied to Taiwan.

Long before the Afghanistan withdrawal, China had become convinced that the U.S. does not have the stomach for a protracted fight over Taiwan.