U.S.-South Korea alliance

Lessons from the 1925 Locarno Treaties for the contemporary security dynamics of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan.

Trump’s administration hesitates to mediate between Japan and South Korea, but sustained diplomacy is crucial to maintaining trilateral unity.

Pyongyang fired several ballistic missiles into the sea to confront the joint military drills between Seoul and Washington.

Following Washington’s “American First” approach on diplomacy, South Koreans are expected to show more support for nuclear development.

Seoul, like all U.S. partners today, faces a choice between value-based diplomacy and traditional security.

Japan and South Korea are at their most fragile political states in decades – just as Trump’s return to the White House disrupts an already-changing global order.

On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul held a meeting with his counterparts from the U.S. and Japan.

A Lee Jae-myung presidency will complicate the political landscape in East Asia, forcing Trump to prioritize which security threat to address first: North Korea or China.

And should the United States be worried?

During this sensitive time of Seoul’s political turmoil, Blinken’s much-awaited visit to South Korea is the last gift that the Biden administration wants to offer its ally. 

Moving away from the quest for military primacy would provide a more stable basis for the South Korea-U.S. alliance – one not reliant on having conservatives in government in Seoul.

Drawing lessons from the back-channel diplomacy of his first term, Trump may well reengage North Korea through secret negotiations.

By invoking North Korean infiltration as a justification for his political moves, Yoon revived one of Washington’s great fears: entrapment in a conflict triggered by an ally’s recklessness.

Negotiating with Trump will not be easy, but Seoul now possesses more leverage than before.

Devising a concrete plan to strengthen its self-defense capabilities and recalibrating its policy on North Korea would be top priorities for Seoul over the next two months.

The two sides condemned the North’s ICBM test and its apparent deployment of troops Russia.

China is the biggest factor behind the continued development of the U.S. alliance network – a trend that works independently of, and supersedes, any political dynamics in Washington.

Just after the South Korean defense minister met his counterpart in Washington, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Depending on their foreign policy preferences, South Korea’s political groups have varied perceptions of what they would like to see from the next U.S. administration. 

The new mechanism is supposed to provide reassurance over the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. 

Given South Korea’s heavy reliance on the U.S. military presence for its own security, the reconstitution of USFJ may necessitate a reassessment of Seoul’s strategic posture and defense planning.

A signature campaign in support of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons represents a profound shift in policy, driven by doubts about U.S. extended deterrence.

The drills could trigger a belligerent response from North Korea, which portrays them as invasion rehearsals. During last year’s exercises, the North conducted ballistic missile tests.

Trump's unconventional diplomatic style could break deadlocks, but his unpredictable approach and possible sidelining of South Korea's strategic interests risks destabilizing the region, too.