U.S.-South Korea alliance

Given South Korea’s heavy reliance on the U.S. military presence for its own security, the reconstitution of USFJ may necessitate a reassessment of Seoul’s strategic posture and defense planning.

A signature campaign in support of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons represents a profound shift in policy, driven by doubts about U.S. extended deterrence.

The drills could trigger a belligerent response from North Korea, which portrays them as invasion rehearsals. During last year’s exercises, the North conducted ballistic missile tests.

Trump's unconventional diplomatic style could break deadlocks, but his unpredictable approach and possible sidelining of South Korea's strategic interests risks destabilizing the region, too. 

Thus far, the Washington Declaration has not had the intended effect. What more can the United States do?

By maintaining the capability to develop nuclear weapons rapidly – without actually doing so – South Korea ensures a form of strategic ambiguity that can serve as a deterrent in itself.

How should South Korea handle balloon clashes against the backdrop of Trump’s possible re-election? 

“With Kim now emboldened, the prospect of unconventional acts like terrorist attacks on South Korean infrastructure and civilians is a real possibility,” says Dr. Cho Sung-min.

U.S.-led MRO efforts contribute to strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance, fostering interoperability, and addressing shared security challenges.

Despite a destabilized Korean Peninsula due to North Korean missile developments, acquiring nuclear weapons would be a dead end for Seoul.

Three points of friction could emerge over policy toward North Korea, host-nation support, and China policy.