Xi-Putin relations

The two leaders discussed at length the recent developments in Russia-U.S. relations, a sign that such talks will not impact China and Russia’s close partnership.

Russia and China both see advantages in deepening their partnership but mismatches in their priorities persist. 

Putin's visit underscored China and Russia's coordination to push forward an “emerging multipolar world.”

For China, it is increasingly difficult to balance its support for Russia and its ties with Western trading partners.

Sino-Russian oil trade grew in 2023, although Putin might have been piqued by Chinese actions on coal and inaction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. 

The direct parallels to China are limited, but the unexpected challenge to Putin’s regime will likely fuel further emphasis on domestic stability within Xi’s. 

While Chinese analysts – and likely the government – recognize the weaknesses of the Putin regime, Beijing is unlikely to fundamentally reassess its alignment with Moscow in the near term.

China and Russia are not in lockstep across the board, but they are clearly in strategic alignment at a global level.

Not lacking for self-confidence, Xi’s decision to insert himself into Russia-Ukraine mediation presents outsized opportunities and risks for Beijing, especially in Europe. 

Xi Jinping’s personal investment in Sino-Russian relations could produce an outcome contradictory to a purely interests-based assessment.

While the Putin-Xi friendship is important, it mostly oils the wheels of a relationship driven by longer-term structural trends.

Beijing and Moscow are strengthening political, economic, and military ties, but the relationship is becoming ever more imbalanced in China’s favor.