Thais head to the polls Sunday, with Yingluck Shinawatra’s party hoping to secure a clear majority. But would a coup follow a Peua Thai triumph?
I’m not sure who to vote for,’ says Nawa Lee, a bus station clerk in the Bang Na district of Bangkok. Between 20 percent and 30 percent of voters remain undecided ahead of parliamentary elections Sunday, according to opinion polls. With 40 parties contesting 500 seats, the raw numbers at least suggest plenty of possible outcomes.
However, in a country where democracy has arguably been on the wane since the army deposed an elected government in September 2006, the main race is between the biggest party in the governing coalition, the Democrats, and Peua Thai, backed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and supported by the Red Shirt movement that set up camp in central Bangkok for two months just over a year ago. Protests then, marked by on-off violence, left 91 people dead.
Democrat leader and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Thursday that he’s confident that his party can win enough seats to form a government, though opinion polls put his party well behind Puea Thai, which is hoping to win enough seats to govern alone. With voting closing at the unusually early hour of 3 pm on Sunday, results should be known by around 10 pm. If neither Puea Thai nor the Democrats win a sufficient majority to govern alone, as seems the most likely outcome, parties will get down to negotiating coalition deals. Still, the horse-trading and money-talking has almost certainly already started.
The other parties running won’t win anywhere near as many seats as either Peua Thai or the Democrats, but they could have a say in who takes office, depending on the results. On the streets of Bangkok, some of the smaller parties are throwing up some eye-catching images and thought-provoking slogans to try draw attention away from the ‘Big Two.’ With voting compulsory, the Yellow Shirts, whose 2006 and 2008 protests helped push Thaksin and his allies from office, are calling on Thais to ‘Vote No,’ that is, to spoil their vote. Depicting politicians as animals on their billboards, the group is campaigning to have Thailand governed by an appointed administration for the next five years, their own solution to the country's last five years of periodic protests and violence.
The perhaps-misnamed People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), as the Yellow Shirts call themselves, are not the only competitor with dubious democratic credentials. Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the army general who led the 2006 coup, is pitching to ethnic Malays Muslims in the deep south of Thailand, traditionally a pro-Democrat region, where his Matabhum or Motherland party might capitalise on local anger at both the Big Two for their failure to bring peace to an insurgency-wracked region.
Chuwit Kamolvisit, a former brothel owner and born-again Christian, is running on an anti-graft ticket, telling all about the hefty kickbacks he once paid to police to keep his massage empire running. Though his Rak Prathet Thai (Love Thailand) Party has little chance of winning any more than a handful of seats, he’s pledging to be a backbench voice against corruption if elected. With his sweat-laced glare appearing on posters all over the capital, the gangster-chic, lovable-rogue spin is catching on, with his party running 3rd or 4th in some Bangkok area opinion polls. Nawa Lee says that she originally planned to vote for Peua Thai, but is now ‘thinking maybe for Khun Chuwit.’
The Bhumjaithai (BJT/Pride of Thailand) is perhaps the most likely of the smaller parties to have a say in who governs next. Led by Newin Chidchob, a former Thaksin ally who switched sides in late 2008, giving Abhisit and the Democrats the parliamentary headcount needed to form a government, he competes for votes around Buriram in the Peau Thai/Red Shirt heartland. Another potential coalition partner for either of the Big Two is the Thai National Development Party, popular in the central region just north of Bangkok, and thought more likely to lean towards Peua Thai, which has dismissed the idea of a revived partnership with BJT.
The Democrats and Peua Thai have run with similar sounding big talk about even bigger spending on social and education projects, as well as grandiose infrastructure projects. It’s all reminiscent of the outlays utilised by Thaksin Shinawatra to win elections in the 2001 and 2005, and perhaps an unwitting hat tip to the quasi-revolutionary impact the exiled former telecommunication entrepreneur-turned-vote-