"If Washington isn’t comfortable with a more powerful China...making China wealthier by trading with it doesn’t make much sense."
Particularly among Asia scholars, there is broad support in Washington for a pivot to Asia in general, and U.S. China policy in particular. Unfortunately, there are two central flaws in U.S. Asia policy that promise big problems for America down the road.
The first problem is that Washington cannot figure out what it wants from China. Washington supports engaging China economically, and even takes credit for China’s economic growth. According to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, “China has prospered as part of the open and rules-based system that the United States helped to build and works to sustain.”
At the same time, Washington is ringing China with an array of bilateral alliances and partnerships, all of which are more or less anti-China. It is not paranoid for Chinese to view this as a policy of military containment. When pressed on the containment question, U.S. policy officials offer absurd responses like that from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in June of last year. According to Panetta, the pivot “is not about containment of China.” Rather, Panetta stated, "it is about the challenge of humanitarian assistance and needs; the challenge of dealing with weapons of mass destruction that are proliferating throughout the world; and dealing with narco-trafficking, and dealing with piracy; and dealing with issues that relate to trade and how do we improve trade and how do we improve lines of communication."
Would any American accept such a rationale for China deploying 60 percent of PLAN assets to the Western Hemisphere? Dealing with humanitarian assistance and needs, stifling nuclear proliferation, suppressing narco-traffickers, and dispatching pirates do not require more than half the U.S. Navy. Even Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state, knows this is nonsense: “When the administration says it’s not about China, it’s all about China. China knows this.” If the success of America’s Asia policy relies on Chinese elites believing our official rationale, the policy is in trouble.
But the more basic problem is that economic engagement is working at cross purposes with military containment. If Washington isn’t comfortable with a more powerful China demanding a greater say over Asian security issues, making China wealthier by trading with it doesn’t make much sense. By the same token, if Washington supports the robust trading relationship that helps narrow the relative power gap between the two countries, why contain it, especially considering that the trading makes the containing costlier?
When I have raised these concerns with U.S. policy officials, they brush off the reasoning as crude and simplistic, but they have little response beyond that. A normal formulation is that America welcomes a “strong, responsible, and prosperous” China that plays a “constructive role” in world politics. “Responsible” and “constructive” go undefined in these responses, however, negating much of their value. Would a responsible China demand control over its sea lines of communication? Would it be constructive for China to continually escalate its demands on Taiwan for reunification?
Photo Credit: Official White House Photo (Flickr)
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Brett Champion
An alternative explanation for the pivot is that the move is aimed at helping China's peaceful rise as opposed to being a sign of American unease with it. A stronger American presence will help to reassure China's neighbors that if China's rise does turn nasty, the US will be there to help. This would hopefully reduce the desire of China's neighbors to align against it more forcefully than what the US has so far done, which should reduce the risk of conflict breaking out in the region.
Kim’s Uncle
Funny how international leftists complain so mightily about how the US uses its military to end tyrany n destroy tyrants like Saddam Hussein n the Taliban but still countries feel secure enough to seek and maintain an alliance with the US! In contrast no country in Asia is seeking an alliance with a nazi wannabe regime of china? In contradicts the argument that somehow the US is an outlaw country seeking to dominate others by military means. The people who feel threaten by US military might are the very same freaks who would sympathize with Saddam Hussein and the Taliban and al Qaeda.
intellectual merc
@stephen -And before this whole discussion dies down, have you ever been to “ground” level? You throw out alot of numbers but i think what you fail to see is that there are real people behind these stats. I sincerely doubt that you’ve managed to run into any of the factory workers who earn less than a dollar per day and work 11 hour shifts in the starbucks you hang out at with the 50c army in beijing.
intellectual merc
@stephen -did i miss something mr. Stephen? Because i honestly can’t see where i posted something “threatening or intimidating”. Don’t get me wrong mr. Stepthen, no one appreciates the west given freedom more than we do. What i’m saying is, will china give the same if it comes out on top? You mentioned the human rights violations committed by ccp above, the way i see it, it usually doesn’t end well for the people at the receiving end of an occupation if the occupiers consider them as less than they are.
Stephen
@intellectual …. The threats i was referring to John Chans earlier "chop the head off the snake" comments earlier and your right I haven't met any factory workers in Starbucks but I have visited factories in China and talked to workers there. I have also sat on a Shanghai street at 3am eating noodles prepared by a man and his wife while their child slept on a piece of cardboard beside their small cooker. I enjoyed spending time trying to talk with my poor grasp of Mandarin. I am like you at least in one way. I fear for my people and I fear for the future if America falls. People in the west have no idea of what's coming. They read some of the bile filled comments here and they get annoyed but attribute it to the harmless rhantings of a few. The reality is that this is a turning point in our history but few understand this is like an iceberg 90% under the water and unseen. Everyone hopes that peace will prevail but the rhetoric and reality of an arms race strongly indicate otherwise. If you and I met we would likely be friends.
ACT
@Stephen
thanks for the viewpoint; what i often, admittedly, forget in my posting is that the people who argue the opposite of me have lives too, and are usually honest people trying to make their way in life as well, and believe in what they say here. I have no doubt that John Chan lives in HK, and much of his view of the U.S is informed by the almost constant news streams of Americans going off an bombing something somewhere, but as you said, this is only the tip of the iceberg; how we are represented in the news media is like looking at a distant castle through a coke-bottle; you get something that's very distorted. With that out of the way, i agree with you that there is a power shift that is accelerating; the PRC just passed the U.S in number of patents according to a study, so i can't help but wonder if the U.S will have a "Suez moment" vis-a-vis the PRC as Britain had with the U.S roughly half a century ago. Methinks it would be something to do with the U.S physically being unable to intervene in a conflict within the east or south seas, but it could be anything. When that happens, of course, the U.S system of alliances that has sustained it will very rapidly crumble and the world will become that more dangerous for all its inhabitants.
intellectual merc
@stephen – spoken by someone who has never experienced first hand racial discrimination. Thank you for considering me as an equal mr. Stephen, however, history and present reality doesn’t make it so. The thing is, not everyone is as enlightened as you are when faced with racial diversity. The point is mr. Stephen, i fear for my people, and if history shows anything, war is inevitable. I believe that the west must come out on top, especially now that “philippines-china’s territory” banners are floating up here in hk.
Kim’s Uncle
I find it amusing the one Viet Cong poster, nguoi Phan bien, has unmasked himself by defending his old red Chinese comrade ally, our resident wu Mao member, john chan!! LOL. They are laughable in the free world where intelligent people can demolish their arguments with sound logic and reason. What can they do but dismiss others who criticize their Nazi like regimes as being morons? This is their best retort? So what articles have Ngoui Phan bien has published?? We are waiting to hear from such a giant intellect like yours? Children of totalitarian regimes have an over inflated perception of themselves and it really shows their contempt and disdain for anyone that question their views!!! But they are most amusing and entertaining. Extremists are usually are as long as they hold no power and have no guns!!! JC, I nominate you for the order of Mao! You’re on here 24 -7!!! LOL
Nguoi Phan Bien
@Kim's Uncle, Jean Paul and ACT
You guys can't even read English properly. Go back and read my original post re: John Chan again and you will realize what an —– you are. You fit perfectly the type of people that I described.
And Kim's Uncle, you call me; a graduate of Truong Vo Bi QG Dalat a Viet Cong? LOL. I was fighting the Commies in all kinds of battlefields when you were still in your mom's womb. That's why I have such a disdain for armchair pundits.
ACT
@Nguoi Phan Bien
unless this
"I don't usually agree with John Chan but I will give him the credit for not being pretentious; unlike his opponents who are literally morons but are often delusional enough to think they know something."
was meant as the purest form of sarcasm, i have not yet found your reply to John Chan, Nguoi. Please tell me how I–or anyone else on this forum who bothers to come well informed–could possibly be a moron; i am not an academic, and i post on here out of interest, not because i cannot get published. That said, i am well informed; i read multiple news articles and journals on the situation, and i have (shock!) bothered to read Noam Chomsky for his analysis of similar situations. I have also read several academic journal articles on the subject. Again, please explain to me how commenting on the situation, or bringing up notable points of hypocrisy when John Chan et al. claim that China is right, and that its truth should be the only truth, is in any way moronic? For that matter, do tell me how attempting to slander every pro-western poster makes you in anyway better than those who you fail at attempting to debase? you have only proven your final comment to Vulgor about the internet being a breeding ground for insular thinking that much more true.
Cam
Wow! looks like the army of 50 cents dispatched by the Chinese propaganda in different smoke screen names is in a full speed here lately.
Jean-Paul
@ Cam
Indeed, just look at the one post by "Paul Lenon", for someone with an english name he sure does have bad english and grammar skills……I wonder why?
Lesterado
If you can beat them, blame it on the Five Cents Gang.
Stephen
If these anti American bloggers were anything but 50 cent party then I worry that they have reached an all time low in self deprecating comments. No one could live in a western country and hate their environment to the level these guys do. But I guess English sounding names and anti American ranting is part of their charm.
@lesterado no one wants to beat you or the 50 cent party. The reality is that even with two faces everyone is taking the comments on face value. Threats, promises of peace, and all. We believe that you believe what you say.
intellectual merc
The sad thing is mr. Stephen, if one goes at it long enough they’d start to believe it. But don’t worry, popular consensus dictates that we would prefer to be treated as a pet by the west rather than livestock by china. Personally, i’d prefer a golden cage for my people, rather than a pigsty\slaughterhouse that china will provide.
Lesterado
Hi Steve, I ain't Chinese national nor anyone living in the West. Neither am I a fan of CCP. Just a bystander or more accurately a curious onlooker marvelling at how strange westerners are, insulated in their own world and values, preferring to hear and believe what they presume non western world should rightly be, thinking that Asia is all tensions and threats from China. Huntington is correct, we never forgot how the world was 'won' by the West, the world gets uglier every time the west thinks they are right.
ACT
@Lesterado
what huntington fails to appreciate is that how the west "won the world" is via the same method as all other empires, and that that form of cruelty is hardly unique to the west; just go to any good library and pick out a book on how China "harmonized" itself. I do not seek to force my values on others, nor do i necessarily believe that the values of my nation or hemisphere are the best; someone else may–and hopefully will, in time–discover a better system. What i do complain about is blatant imperialism and anachronistic mindsets, such as those that the CPC seems to display in regard to conducting its foreign relations; of course, the U.S has its fair share of imperialism as well (just look at the situation with Iran and North Korea), but i would assume that–by and large–it is better to live in a system where you can choose whom you love, instead of getting stoned to death for it, or where you can speak your mind without being sent to a labor camp or being tortured.
Stephen
West or East makes no difference. You are the equal of everyone else no matter you race or nationality so you can never be a pet in a golden cage. The fact is that my wife is Chinese and I have lived in China and have many Chinese friends. We are all equal in my eyes but it doesn't mean that there are some bad eggs in any race. I don't take threats to my freedom or my way of life lightly. The reality is that if you sit in any Starbucks in Beijing you can easily meet one of the 50 cent party. They are nice people with a job and they are fervent in what they believe but please don't try and project your beliefs on me or attack others through threats or intimidation. In the west good people see cops as securing the publics safety and lawful freedoms. Criminals see cops as containing their nature to not abide by the rules. America as a defender of lawful freedoms is seen as a force for good by by people that enjoy the freedoms and safety that we have.
intellectual merc
Who else has bad grammar, blind anti-west sentiments and clearly has no idea that freedom of information and expression exists outside china?
neutral
China has the most internet users in the world, likewise, unlike many western nationalists believe is possible, China has many nationalists that are fond of their country. To believe that people would post on internet forums for 50 cents is laughable. I could just as easily throw it back and ask if you are getting paid to post the stuff you do ?
If you don't believe me go to any Chinese internet forum and try to gauge how many actually support China, even with all the obligatory list of bad Chinese things that people have already used here (pollution, Tibet, free speech), there is no way that millions of internet users are getting paid to post what they do. This 50 cent is stupid conspiracy theory stuff.
Cam
@Neutral,
The question here is could average mainland Chinese have access to the Diplomat site if it wasn’t blocked by the “great wall of China”? Many readers here, who have been to China said NO. Indeed, the Diplomat is inaccessible in China except for the army of 50 centers.
neutral
They have access the same way that many people have access to music and movie sharing sites, the governments will try to ban it, but there will be many that will ignore and bypass it.That great Chinese firewall is as effective as the real world great world of China, its big but porous and in the end stopped nothing.
Errol
That's odd… If you're in China, wouldn't you need VPN to get around the Golden Shield Project? Are you implying that everyone who has a computer can get a VPN that easily? Despite strict government controls?
Anon
And an even cheaper ad hominem from someone without the mental faculty to offer reasoned retorts.
mlnw
The U.S. must deal with the reality that for the Developing World to meet a basic standard of living it may end up competing with the U.S. for the same resources. The U.S. has seemed almost paranoid about China's presence in Africa. Yet China must feed and raise the standard of living of its 1.4 billion people and it cannot do so using only the resources found within the borders of its own country. What may be as threatening to the U.S. is that China is out competing the U.S. by cutting win-win deals with the countries it is doing business with and building infrastructure in those countries so that as they develop they will become better and better markets for China's finished goods. The U.S. is too blind to realize that military threats and coercion will not work over the long run in a world of 7+ billion people, or that the soft power that comes from trade and the relationships that develop from trade are much more effective. Ultimately, it is the present paradigm that is wrong. Why the U.S has not sought a modus vivendi with China and Russia, or respected the sovereignty of nations under the U.N. Charter, or worked to achieve peace, instead of initiating wars of aggression, is incomprehensible. War destroys or dispossesses people, and it destroys value, it does not create it, so much so that the cost of war in today's world has bankrupted our nation and made everything else unaffordable.
As for the Daiyu Islands, China's case for sovereignty is overwhelming, and it was a mistake that the U.S. ever turned over the Administration of the islands to Japan in 1972. A review of internal memoranda in the GWU National Security Archive reveals that this was the subject of debate within the Nixon Administration, such that the U.S. ended up publicly declaring it was taking no position on the issue of sovereignty. So, when Hillary Clinton shoots her mouth off and threatens China and demands that it back off, one is thankful she is leaving the State Department, and is being replaced by Kerry, who has declared himself committed to dealing with the Chinese on a realistic basis. Let's hope that the President lets him walk the walk.
Tim Wagner
I am truly disappointed that our Secretary of State, instead of promoting diplomacy, had taken the path that is contradictory to her job title. History will remember her, not as a diplomat or her diplomacy but for her failure to promote and advance diplomacy. The world can breath a sight of relief now that her tenure is over.
Anon
@mlnw Well said! China threatens the West because it is offering a viable model to Africa – development to improve their standard of living in exchange for resources. Even Greece has welcomed China's COSCO's efforts in transforming its ailing ports into vibrant hubs. This challenges NATO's method of cronyism, puppet dictators, corruption, chaos and political subversion in Africa & Middle East for the purpose of exploiting resources, eg. assasination of Patrice Lumumba, coup against Mossadegh, thus China must be vilified.
ACT
@anon
first of all, i am not paid. Secondly, i present my own opinions; i have absolutely no connections to the CIA or the U.S government. Thirdly, i don't consider China's actions in africa to be a threat; they can go do whatever they want over there, and at least they are trying to improve bilateral ties and living conditions–ostensibly. I do, however, consider China's actions in the east and south seas to be a threat; a glance at China's history should tell you why.