Asia is not experiencing an arms race like the one that preceded World War I -- at least not yet.
Arms races, naval or otherwise, get a bad rap. They are usually regarded as the military expression and consequence of the existing state of international relations, but they can also develop a momentum of their own, wasting money, exacerbating already tense relations between states and threatening to destabilize whole regions. Instead of reflecting policy as Clausewitz reminds us the military should do, arms racers determine it. All too often, moreover, they seem to make conflict more likely.
In the Asia-Pacific region many media outlets and pundits fear that a naval arms race is indeed developing and lament its possible consequences. It is not hard to see why— Whether it is Malaysia’s Scorpene submarines, Vietnam’s Kilos, India’s unprecedented naval building program or China’s new carrier the Liaoning and its carrier-killing ballistic missiles, naval modernization across the region is producing, if not always an overall increase in numbers, then at least substantially more impressive offensive and defensive naval capabilities.
And all of this is coinciding with, or even produced by, rising maritime tensions in the East and South China Seas. There are more narrowly focused tensions too, with analysts especially debating the dismayingly competition between China’s “counter-intervention” strategies and capabilities, and the U.S.Air-Sea Battle construct. Vietnam’s Kilos can also be seen as a more modest version of an anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy. These examples all suggest a worsening competition between “offensive” and “defensive”capabilities.
But is all this really developing into a naval arms race similar in style (and potentially effect) to the Dreadnought race that took place between Britain and Germany before the First World War – and even if it is, how serious might its consequences in the Asia-Pacific Region actually be?
While the answer to this question partly depends partly on how one defines a naval arms race, there are some major differences between pre-war Europe and the situation now. Most obviously—and with some exceptions like China, Singapore, and India— Asian countries today are devoting a far smaller proportion of their national treasure to defense than did Britain, Germany and the other countries of pre-war Europe. In general, naval armaments are making much slower technical advances than was the case a century ago, with acquisition programs around the area being more incremental, deliberate, and less determined by transformational technology. It is hard to think of a modern equivalent, for example, of HMS Invincible, brand spanking new and revolutionary when commissioned in 1909 but obsolescent when sunk at the Battle of Jutland seven years later in 1916.
Compared to then, technological transformation now is much steadier, and the importance of maintaining an edge over rivals more debatable, given the rise of asymmetric technological/political/legal alternatives and strategies. Crucially, few national leaders, diplomats, or even sailors talk in arms race terms, and they certainly do not justify their efforts by the need to “get ahead.” On the contrary policymakers make every effort to avoid publically naming possible adversaries that they need to build against.
This was not the case in Europe before WWI when some politicians did not hesitate to single out adversaries and warn of the dire consequences of falling behind them militarily. Others, on the contrary, conceded their countries were in an arms race and warned of the catastrophic consequences it was likely to have, unless it was stopped. Particularly in the years 1909-12, there was, with good reason, an air of imminent disaster.
Nor did Europe have the kind of compensating institutional arrangements that draw nations together rather than drive them apart. For all the limitations of the “Asian way,” increasing levels of economic interdependence and transnational regional structures like ASEAN restrain violate competition. They also facilitate cooperation between regional navies against common threats such as maritime crime in its various forms (piracy, drugs , human trafficking and so forth), hold innumerable bilateral and multilateral exercises and operate side by side in dealing with humanitarian and civil disasters (the tsunami relief operation of 2004). Although there were such acts of naval togetherness amongst the European navies of the period before the First World War, they never became as routine as they currently are in the Asia-Pacific.
This not to say that everything in the naval garden is rosy, for it certainly is not. Any day in the disputed East and South China Seas could easily generate an incident that risks turning mild competition into a full-blown international crisis at sea. All the countries now investing for the first time in submarines – a difficult and demanding discipline – could well be the victim of an accident. The oil exploration rigs proliferating around the East and South China Seas are likely, to judge by events in more tranquil places elsewhere, to be the scene of a maritime disaster, sooner or later. Any of these could be really difficult to handle in ocean areas where ownership is in dispute and nationalist feeling rising- and, sadly, this applies to a great swathe of the western Pacific. All in all, what’s happening is not a naval arms race at the moment, but it is far from impossible that the naval modernization process we see around the region could turn into one.
Several factors increase the likelihood of this. First the high levels of secrecy in regional naval policies. This near total lack of transparency about the true extent of individual naval acquisition programs and the intentions that lie behind them force naval planners to operate on worst case analyses. Nor is this much moderated by institutionalized arms control and arms usage procedures. The complete failure to operationalize the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea after more than a decade, the paucity of real working hot-line arrangements and Incidents at Sea agreements all illustrate the problem. And then there is the growth of social media and the committed “netizen” all too ready to give vent to nationalist sentiment over the latest spat in the East and South China Seas, reducing their government’s capacity to maneuver and its often already fragile ability to keep events under control.
A modern version of the “Dreadnought fever” that gripped Europe before the First World War is not yet evident. That being said, it would take a brave analyst to rule out this eventuality in the face of the cyber-sparring that attended the Scarborough Shoal crisis in 2012, or the ramming incident that took place in the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in 2010. For such reasons, sailors and diplomats in the Asia-Pacific region should be continually alert to the risk that today’s naval modernization might just, despite their best intentions, turn into tomorrow’s arms race. As a result the military means might indeed overwhelm the political ends.
Geoffrey Till is a British naval historian and Professor of Maritime Studies in the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London. He is the author of Asian Naval Expansion: An Arms Race in the Making (London: Routledge, An Adelphi book for the IISS, December 2012), from which this article is adapted.
Photo Credit: Wikicommons
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pa
Whilst I found the contents of the article very interesting the scary part was actually reading the comments posted after it. The narrow minded, illinformed, jingoistic, nationalist sentiments expressed on both sides reveal the true and sad nature of humanity. Confirming that we (humans) are very much only just out of the trees and have a very very long way to go before we can call ourselves civilised.
Kim’s Uncle
Well China loss over 400,000 sq km of outer Manchuria but still don’t dare to ask the Russians to return them? This just proves how weak they are! A lot of talk but nothing to show for it!
vic
It's all a question of timing. The Russians know it, and the Chinese know it.
Cam
Its called cowardice. The Russians know it. The whole world knows it. The Chinese know it and called "reasonable cowardice with Chinese characteristics".
Observer
@ vic
Sure, question of timing. Such as the Russians shot to death not one, not two, but several chinese poachers a few months ago, right? Funny how chinese media (print or internet) and chinese (in china or oversea) would not dare to say a word, not one. What is the matter? No chanting of "teach them a lesson" or "historic evidences" or "nuke them" or all the usual big empty threat and talk from china and chinese?
Full of shame and humiliation all over again. So much for "china as the next Godfather". How sad and pathetic. Perfect example of china and chinese characteristics.
For those that are not familiar about Russia took all the land and slaughtered chinese like sheeps, read this: (moderators, these are not spam)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Aigun (Russia took over 600 thousands square kilometers of land from china, not just 400 as another poster said)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amur_Annexation
Dubaev
This is the quote from the link you have provided:
"Thus, by pure diplomacy and only a few thousand troops, the Russians took advantage of Chinese weakness and the strength of the other European powers to annex 350,000 square miles (910,000 km2) of Chinese territory. With the exception of Muravyov's rather ceremonial cannonade at Aigun, they had apparently not fired a single shot."
I failed to find any evidence about " chinese slaughtered like sheeps"
Nitish
China is a coward nation and they have nothing other than tonnes of cheap and scrap technology..lol
Observer
@ be way said "Vietnam should go back to China".
Sure, right after china goes back to Japan (rapes of nanjing) , Britain (Opium Wars), Machuria, and Mongolia.
As another poster said above, china repeatly tried and tried to swallow little Vietnam for the last few thousands years, got slaughtered and still mad about it.
Let check the history, shall we? Funny how you and other chinese posters would not brag about these facts. What is the matter? So shameful of your ancestors pathetic fighting skill or rather, lack of it?
1979 – ten of thousands PLA soldiers lay dead at the border.
1788 – Emperor Nguyen Hue defeat over 200K Quing soldiers in less than 1 week.
1427 – Emperor Le Loi defeated over 300K Ming soldiers.
1257, 1284 and 1288 – Commander Tran Hung Dao defeat between 300K -500K Mongols/Yuan (chinese slaves) soldiers. No country on Earth would able to achieve such thing, beat the fearsome Mongols not one, not two, but THREE TIMES.
938 Battle of Bach Dang River - the end of china reign forever.
A mind is a terrible thing to waste. Use it, comrade. How pathetic.
Ed
I can see this as increasing deterance of naval interdiciton, it could hopefully only be a good thing. If the countries around China have a healthy submarine force it would make them a hard target worthy of respect. If any nation wants to push them around they must expect casualties and masive defence expendature to overcome the threat. Plus this only reduces the reliance on the US to deliver security, something the US tax payer would be happy about.
There is also a long History of these developing ASEAN nations being pushed around, they must be sick of it by now. Now they have some money to build a decent defence structure they will do it, good on them.
vic
Asean nations are too far behind the development curve to come up with effective navies. Perhaps two to three generations from now (i.e., 90 years), these nations may have the modern manpower and organizational skills. Right now, it is a question of catching up to "modernity".
Cam
China might have big number of guns, modern ships and millions of soldiers but NO fighting skills. I repeat NO FIGHTING SKILLS and most importantly NO FIGHTING SPIRIT, even it comes to defending their own country. Please tell readers here when China won any major wars either against big or small countries? If I were you, probably I would not brag like that.
Kim’s Uncle
I wonder why Chinese are not so assertive about their vast loss of territory in outer Manchuria? China loss over 400,000 sq km to czarist Russia but they go ape sh*t over a few speck of islands??? LOL.
Hey, little fenqings (Be Way, john chan, Anon, etc.) go beat the war drum to the Russians! Why so timid when facing Russia?
Be Way
It's not a question that the Chinese are afraid of the Russians or anyone else. It's the strategic mistake of the Manchus during the Qing Dynasty, for restricting the Chinese of entering the Manchus hinterland. By the time they are aware of their mistake, the Outer Manchuria is swarmed with Russians occupying their lands for ages. Unlike the fascist Japanese who brutally attacked China, the Chinese at least take the comfort that the Russians will helping them against the ugly Western Imperialists and sadistic Japanese animals. That's the main reason why China being a peaceful country, can forge peaceful and stable settlement with almost all its 14 neighbors except the quarrelsome neighbors, Japan and Philippines.
Cam
"China being a peaceful country"? peaceful my foot! This day, 34 years ago the barbarian China sneakily attacked and invaded six Vietnamese northern border provinces when the Vietnamese removed the murderous Khmer Rouge, the China's vassal regime. The "sickman of Asia" turned to be a children, civilian killer. Now, it wants to be a gangster. For the Vietnamese, we can't forget this day 34 years ago. Leave our East Sea alone, surely a bloody nose again and losing tooth are what you don't want to see on your face.
Be Way
@Cam,
Let me also tell you straight that Vietnamese are not the noblest kind of race around.. Remember your history of how Vietnamese not only destroyed the Kingdom of Cham in Central and South 'Vietnam' but also brutally annihilate all the natives there. The royal edict to all Vietnamese is when they see one Cham male, they kill one until all of them either disappeared from Vietnam or migrated to Malaysia, Cambodia and even Hainan Island where at least they are saved from being brutally massacred. At least the Chinese have more conscience to leave all the natives surviving until now whether they are in Tibet, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Manchurian or even Mongolian. By the way, the Vietnamese doesn't belong to South East Asia family as they only have different appearance, culture and the genes are not much different from the Chinese.. Vietnam should go back to China.
Kim’s Uncle
@ Be Way, what you just posted was very comedic! Just accept your loss status as a 2nd rate power that only dares to push around smaller weaker neighbors. Outer Manchuria was historically part of China but since the Russians are too powerful the commie Chinese are only brave at facing 3rd rate powers like the Philippines and Vietnam over claims that do not pass the BS test so no wonder these countries call BS on China! Anyone that is outside region can look at it objectively and see China claims are contrived and made up! Commie China was built on lies n suffering of its people so when red commies make up lies to the West we can see that! Our society was built up because our culture values moral n ethical behavior that’s why we have free speech, freedom, and free press! Government officials have to be credible in the West or else they will be thrown out because a free press ensure the officials will be honest and report on misdeeds.
Btw, your comments are very emotional when you describe Japan or the US! It is a hint of irrationality n childishness! Modern day Japan is a democratic country with individual rights china can only dream about! You to think in this century and stop equating today’s Japan with that of Tojo’s Japan. Those people are not in power. Grow up please!
As for your emotional diatribe against the US, it is very ironic sense the US was the power that prevailed over Imperial Japan which gave china a new life! Plus without the US 7th fleet, the western Pacific would be lawless n chaotic! US protection of the high seas allow other nations to prosper thru trade n commerce including china as most of china’s oil needs pass thru these waters! How ironic you lambast the very power which allows your country to climb out of the dung heap! I guess it is not a part of Chinese culture to be grateful! Sigh!
Be Way
@Old Kim from North Korea.
Before you start commenting, please check whether my above comment referred anything to U.S or not.
Cam
@Be way,
You talked like a parrot of what the CCP feeds you all along. Your logic is flawed when comparing feudal time of hundreds of years ago with current time. We know for the Chinese, they act consistently throughout time so a bully remains a bully, no matter when. Anyone, who is familiar with Vietnam history, knows that it is the Chinese the Vietnamese killed the most throughout its struggle for independence. Go to Vietnam, you will see most of the street names are names of Vietnamese heroes dying fighting the Chinese. Taking about genes, it is non-Han southern Chinese, who carry our DNA as they are families of BeiYue (One hundred of Viet), not other way around. The Han Chinese invaded and took the Vietnamese vast land from the south of Yangtze river, thus pushing the Vietnamese to the south. Clearly, this is not what the CCP teaches you and Chinese. So learn something before you comment here if you Chinese don’t want to lose face in front of knowledgeable readers here.
Cam
BTW, in Vietnam we just celebrated a few days ago“ the Dong Da battle”, in which the Vietnamese emperor Quang Trung and his soldiers killed more than 30,000 Quing Chinese trrops, just in 5 day campaign in the spring festival of 1789.
Be Way
@Cam,
Honestly we don't give a damn of your historical rivalry with the Chinese as your enemy tomorrow could well turn to be the French, the Americans, Japanese or even the Cambodian, Laotian or Thai. On top of your neverending squabblings with external enemies, it's a shame of the Vietnamese that there are so many bloodsheds caused from your own internal conflicts ranging from your centuries of Nguyen, Tinh, Trieu, Ngo, Dinh and etc rivalries where it's the penchant of barbarity and brutality of every Vietnamese to fight amongst themselves with their base animal instincts instead of being rational and levelheaded.
Cam
@Be Way,
Calm down, boy. I started to see you lose your cool and you ruined your own debate by “I-don’t give a damn thing”. Anyway, I proved my point is that China is never a peaceful country throughout its history, at least to the Vietnamese, unlike you falsely claimed. Have nothing more to say to you.
Be Way
It's not a question of calm or not calm to our debate. It's a question of whether Vietnam can remain calm or not just after being peaceful for a few decades since the last disastrous Vietnam War. As far as we in ASEAN are concerned, we don't give a damn about your continuous historical rivalry with China but we are just concerned whether Vietnam belligerent behavior will lead towards another unnecessary bloodshed war with China or not, that will directly affect everyone of us in ASEAN.
Cam
@Be Way,
Wait a minute. You are from an ASEAN country? Are you sure you are not a mainland Chinese disguised as one of South East Asians seen all over places tirelessly repeating the CCP’s lines? What a crook! For ASEAN as a whole, no one trusts the big bad bully China except for the dictator Hunsen (ironically, he sold his country to the butchers in Beijing. Sadly, history is repeating in Cambodia). As matter of fact, ASEAN should be thankful of the Vietnamese because hadn’t them standing on China’s way on the southward march, then the entire ASEAN swallowed by the ever hungry China now. And by the way, what is wrong for the Vietnamese resisting the big bad bully China's expansionists?
LOL. What I should call you now, Be Way? A SEA guy, willingly sell his soul and body for those little emperors in Beijing, hoping from article to article commenting tirelessly just for 50 cents per post (maybe more). I am a quiet guy and you made me talkative.
Stefan Stackhouse
The pre WWI arms race was only the kindling. It was a lunatic hypernationalist Serb with a pistol that actually generated the spark that set the whole thing off, and that is the type of bolt-out-of-the-blue "black swan" event that is totally unpredictable. The person that sets off the China Sea War is probably alive today, and is as yet unknown. But the clock is ticking.
Anon
Let's break up AmeriKKKa!! Yeehaw!!
But….
A non-nuclear war requires a vast amount of oil, neither of which Japan and China has. I can see an extended war a scenario in which both sides just flat out run out of resources.
And all the talk of which side is bigger, better or just superior has little meaning when you have to transport troops and weaponry over water. A ship is just a floating target: slow and with little defense. Japan and China will just destroy each other’s ship before they reach their respective beaches. All the talk about China attacking Taiwan: I doubt if China can land a single troop carrier.
Now in a nuclear war, both sides will just lose. Japan has nuclear weapons. Like Israel, they do not advertise. If you have the capability to make hundreds in a month then you have already been working on them, and have many in various stages of finish and capability. I am sure they are as advanced and miniaturized as the US models.
So both Japan and China huff and puff. Nothing will change. China will still be talking Japanese imperialism in another 30 years which will mark the hundred-year-old anniversary of WWII. Japan then will be a country of 80 million and wealthy, and China will be a country of a billion and poor. Nothing will change – just the numbers.
Ed
I'm not so sure if Japan does have Nuclear weapons, I can't prove they do not, but I'll hazard a guess and say they do not. However I doubt it would take the Japanse nuclear scientists long to make one, and they already have the rocket to send it anywhere on earth.
papa john
No one but stupid American administrations (and greedy capitalists) from Nixon up to now should be blamed for raising red monster of China. A little late, Obama admin does realize commie China is an unfinished work for America since the end of the cold war when we finished the Soviets, that’s why it comes the pivot. We are little broke but still have strengths to finish off the unfinished work before we have to face the real wwIII then. Breaking up China in pieces is much better strategy.
Be Way
Oh well, maybe why not add more of your frustration by cursing the Americans further, for supporting and raising China for many centuries as the top economic power of the world.
Kim’s Uncle
Not really it only shows china’s weakness and futility and it created the mindset for a crybaby culture of victim hood! Great nation and great people do not cry! Great people and great country can also defend themselves! Great people and great country can also learn from their own mistakes and admit to their faults and failure like modern Japan and Germany! Cry baby culture does not endear respect, cry baby culture only breeds contempt!
Be Way
Hello old uncle kim of north korea,
The other old papa is cursing the Americans for not doing enough to befriend and make peace with the Chinese and here you are talking about Chinese being crybaby, crybaby, blah, blah..la, la…do, re, mi. Can you just be more alert by paying attention to the topic being discussed.
vic
@papa john
America is just "little broke" ? It is broke big way, big time. It's a real big hole to crawl out of, and it is going to take a long, long time.
papa john
The West and Japan just cut trade with the red monster, then China will come back to the stone age for sure. Its right time for America to beat the commie China for fun, don't you think, Chinky godfather?
Kim’s Uncle
@ Vic. I don’t think you know much about economics but it is interesting to see and hear from people with little knowledge! Ignorance is bliss as they say! Strange for a “broke” country the Chinamen still buy US assets like US Treasury bonds? Saudis and Japanese too! Did you know when China pays for its oil bills it has to pay them in US dollars like all counties do for crude oil? All oil is invoiced in dollars even Iranians and Venezuelans have to accept that! :). What does that tell you? The US is a very powerful country! China only has wishful thinking!
Kim’s Uncle
I’m always amazed that during the Opium wars the Brits could travel half way around the world moving equipment, supplies, and weapons along with troops and still managed to defeat china’s pathetic military on their own turf!!!! LOL. China can’t even move troops n supplies in order to conquer Taiwan in 2013? :).
Be Way
@Old Uncle,
That's proved your point that the Chinese are good natured people who don't go around invading other countries. It's appeared that you don't seen to understand even such simple logic.
Cyrus
You called your country an Empire, in every sense that was a devastating blow to so called Sino Superiority to be defeated by the Brits from Thousands of Miles away.
nirvana
@Be Way,
That simply proves that Chinese were not good navigators. To infer from this that Chinese were not good warriors (on land) is ignoring the obvious. To infer that Chinese were exceptionally peaceful and that they own this large territory today by non-violent means only is just cheap propaganda. Just look up the territories occupied by successive Chinese dynaties. For dummies, start with Wikipedia, then read the Chinese own "shi lu".
vic
Taiwan will come to the embrace of the motherland without fighting. It is the acme of political ability to attain one's goal without fighting.