On July 23, Beijing hosted a significant diplomatic event that brought together 14 Palestinian factions, including Hamas, Fatah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, for discussions with top Chinese diplomats. This initiative marked another step in China’s involvement in West Asian politics, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict. The meeting culminated in a notable achievement, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announcing an agreement among the Palestinian factions to establish an interim national reconciliation government for post-war Gaza.
Despite global attention, the specifics of the engagement remained confidential. Wang’s statements did not provide clarity about the involvement of Hamas, which is not part of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in this arrangement, nor did Wang specify the immediate consequences of any agreement. The discussions took place amid uncertainty over the future administration of Palestinian lands, as Israel has repeatedly pledged to eliminate Hamas in retaliation for the group’s terrorist attack on its territory on October 7. Notably, Beijing has not condemned Hamas’ actions.
The recent “Beijing Declaration” is part of ongoing efforts to unite the Palestinian leadership factions; however, earlier unity declarations failed in negotiations. Thus, rather than a game-changer for Palestine, the declaration should be viewed as evidence of China’s increasing eagerness to position itself as a prominent mediator in West Asian affairs. This diplomatic push aligns with China’s broader strategy of expanding its global influence, particularly in regions with significant economic interests.
This initiative is not China’s first foray into West Asian politics, particularly concerning the Israel-Palestine conflict. Aiming to arbitrate between Israel and Palestine and find closure to their long-standing dispute, China hosted PLO President Mahmoud Abbas for a state visit in June 2023. Before that, China’s effective mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023 highlighted its rising capacity to convert economic might into diplomatic influence in West Asia.
In examining China’s strategic approach to reconciliation among Palestinian factions, it is crucial to contextualize this effort within the broader framework of China’s economic and geopolitical interests in West Asia. With a substantial investment portfolio totaling $242.78 billion in the region, China’s economic engagement serves as a foundation for its growing political ambitions. The perceived vacuum left by the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan presented China with an opportunity to expand its regional influence, startling many. However, some analysts have raised doubts about the level of Beijing’s geopolitical influence in a region where the United States has traditionally had significant sway.
These endeavors have often been regarded as Beijing’s strategy to establish itself as a significant player in global politics, presenting an alternative worldview to that of the United States. Notably, China’s approach to West Asia emphasizes its stance against oppression and in support of the oppressed, contrasting with the United States’ provision of military aid to Israel and perceived inaction in addressing the humanitarian crisis. This positioning not only serves China’s diplomatic interests but also aligns with its economic concerns. The potential for conflict escalation, potentially involving groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen, poses significant risks to regional stability and, by extension, to China’s trade interests.
China’s West Asian Diplomatic Initiatives
Amid ongoing Israeli military operations in Gaza, coupled with allegations of human rights violations, global public opinion has increasingly aligned with the Palestinian cause, as evidenced by worldwide protests, social media campaigns such as “All Eyes on Rafah,” and the recent ruling by the International Court of Justice. In this context, the United States’ unwavering support for Israel has fostered widespread anti-U.S. sentiment across West Asian societies. China aims to capitalize on this antipathy by positioning itself as a leader of the Global South and a more impartial mediator in regional conflicts, distinguishing itself from the United States in the ongoing hegemonic competition on the world stage.
In this context, China’s efforts toward Palestinian reconciliation can be understood as a multifaceted strategy to enhance its global standing, expand its geopolitical influence, and safeguard its economic interests in West Asia. This strategy exemplifies China’s overarching aspiration to position itself as a conscientious global force.
However, it is not probable that China will mediate a peace agreement between Israel and Palestine in the near future, as there is a divergence resulting from the lack of alignment of national interests and the absence of a shared adversary among these three nations. Israel is a non-NATO ally of the United States while Iran, which is an adversary of the U.S. and Israel, is a strategic partner of China.
China’s impact on the Israel-Palestine problem was already constrained due to its presence in the region. However, this meeting between Palestinian delegations and high-ranking Chinese diplomats will carry great importance, especially given the timing: the Beijing Declaration was signed while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was visiting the United States.
Challenges to China’s Mediation Efforts
China’s mediation efforts between Israel and Palestine, while ambitious, face significant challenges that may ultimately hinder their success. Wang Yi articulated China’s vision for resolving the Israel-Hamas conflict, emphasizing three key points: facilitating humanitarian aid and post-war reconstruction, promoting Palestinian self-governance, and implementing a two-state solution with Palestine’s admission to the United Nations.
While the immediate provision of aid seems feasible, the extensive reconstruction of Gaza presents a formidable challenge given the scale of destruction. This task would require a coordinated international effort, for which no comprehensive plan currently exists.
Palestinian self-governance is another potential obstacle. The principle of “Palestinians ruling Palestinians” faces strong opposition from Israel, particularly under its current right-wing coalition government. Israel especially objects to any role for Hamas, a designated terrorist organization, in a post-conflict governance structure. Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz’s swift rejection of any joint Hamas-Fatah governance in Gaza underscored this resistance, with Katz asserting that “Hamas’ rule will be crushed.”
As for the two-state solution, this proposal remains far from realization. Israel has shown little inclination toward accepting a two-state solution since the Oslo Accords. The assassination of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and the subsequent rise of conservative and right-wing leadership under Netanyahu reflects deep-seated opposition to this concept among a significant portion of Israeli society.
China can rhetorically support a two-state solution, but its ability to deliver on this proposal is severely limited. Implementing such a solution depends mainly on Israeli cooperation and U.S. support, neither of which China can directly influence to a significant degree. As an adversary state and strategic competitor to the United States, China’s involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is viewed with skepticism by both Israel and the United States. This adversarial relationship limits China’s capacity to serve as an effective mediator.
Finally, China’s advocacy for Palestinian admission to the United Nations, while aligned with its stated objectives, faces a significant obstacle in the form of the U.S. veto power in the Security Council. The United States has consistently blocked Palestine’s U.N. membership, largely in support of Israel’s position. Israel vehemently opposes Palestine’s U.N. membership, viewing it as a legal pathway to Palestinian self-determination that could undermine its own strategic interests.
Ultimately, Israel’s political and military establishment is not interested in replacing the United States as the only arbiter in the peace process. Now the question is whether China, the world’s second great power, intends to become a vocal representative of Palestinian interests on the global stage. As a veto member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), China possesses the same level of influence as the United States in determining the peaceful resolution of issues.