The fiscal omens arising out of Vietnam are not good. Talks of bank runs, the arrests of corrupt officials and an end to an economic era marked by robust growth say it all. More so, is the prospect that Hanoi will seek outside help.
The idea that Vietnam could seek a bailout to resolve debt incurred by the county’s biggest lenders from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was raised by a Parliamentary Committee but the idea was then almost immediately dismissed by the country’s central bank.
This prospect remains just that, but it did increase the heat on the Vietnamese government to spell out exactly what is needed to correct fiscal imbalances and put the economy back on a secure footing.
Communist governments are not known for making such declarations, which would be mandated if the government was to seek outside help, like an IMF bailout.
Additionally, Chinese finances are also looking very shaky as was detailed in a must read column by Minxin Pei who recently wrote in The Diplomat that we should be worried about the consequences stemming from years of easy credit in China.
The ramifications of a financially depleted China and a recession-prone Vietnam are enormous for Southeast Asia whose economies have done a stoic job in fending off the challenges of the debt-plagued financial route that has hammered the world economy since 2008.
Deregulation within the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) had vastly improved the ability of the 10-member bloc to trade among themselves, while China’s investment and largesse, particularly in countries like Cambodia, has further improved regional economic outlook.
But on their own some countries – notably Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia – are looking vulnerable. Growth is weakening, debt is growing, the initial regional benefits of deregulation have run their course and traditional trading partners from the U.S. to Europe, Japan and now China are unlikely to see a return to the boom times anytime soon.
It’s too early to say whether Vietnam will become Southeast Asia’s Greece. Its government and people are of a vastly different character, inflation is under control and the exchange rate has stabilized.
Nevertheless, housing prices have halved, foreign investment is down by a third and forecast growth rates of five percent over the next two years are paltry for a developing country out to improve its lot.
The outlook is far from good and this will also hurt Vietnam’s immediate neighbors, Cambodia and Laos and ripple across a region where economic uncertainty is fast becoming the issue of the day.

Javier Lucines
In my humble opinion, South Korea will be the next Greece. Watch YouTube videos and you'll see plenty of unrest, clashes between police and workers claiming for better labor conditions, brutal evictions of poor, homeless people (yes, for all the hi-tech and luxury and K-pop and K-dramas, there are poverty in South Korea) and in general a very gray horizon in that country. While the propaganda drown us to believe that S. Korea is a miracle, the FACTS say the contrary. Soon, megacorporations, with decreasing sales of their products will crumble to the ground, the government will not satisfy the Korean welfare state, and more poverty will appear in this country, helped and developed by the US for strategical reasons since the 1950s. Then will come a claim to bail out the banks (due to the enormous Korean debt), an austerity program, the killing of the welfare system, pensions, etc. and so we have the Greece curse again, but in South Korea. Here are two issues to watch:
* http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGpWqWB58Xg (a brutal eviction in Seoul, more brutal than Spain)
* SOUTH KOREA: THE MIRACLE UNMASKED by Eric Toussaint, a revealing work that emphasizes the US strong influence in South Korea, blessed with millons of dollars in donatons and loans, along with technical and business management help, sinnce the Korean War
http://cadtm.org/South-Korea-the-miracle-unmasked
M.Alaya
The Philippines and Indonesia are increasingly vulnerable? The two countries are on a roll buoyed by internal consumption, credit upgrades, high growth rates, high reserves, plenty of policy space and relatively low exposure to external shocks. Where does Luke Hunt get his news?
daole
Vietnam and China got the same problem that when the financial crisis hapapended few years ago in US they released alot money to recuse the fast GDP at that time, but the govements of two countries have not got effective control this cash…… Now these flow of cash is going to kill them soon !!
Observer
The faster Vietnam is moving away from communist, the better she will be.
Perfect example of North and South Korea. One is wealthy (democratic) and one is poor (communist).
Saigonese
Logic comment !
The_Observer
The author is overly negative about China. China saved Asia and other economies both in 1997 and 2007-2010.
Look at the internal and external debts of the various countries in the link below:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
You will see that the Chinese figures are the best of the major world economies. Even if you were to be pessimistic about China and doubled those Chinese debt figures they would still be better than any other country.
Don
The huge stimulus package in 2008 of China is just for the sake of covering its own a…$$, not for helping the world ( some sort of naivety here!). In the case of Vietnam, thanks to its eagerly emulating its 'big brother's superior- economic-model' virtually 100%, focusing primarily on its incompetent SOEs & cheap labor cost for manufacturing (processing) cheap goods for export, the economic consequences & repercussions today in Vietnam are just something inevitable, predictable & unavoidable! Political & economic reforms a must here for Vietnam to move upwards & sadly, there's no other way around!
daole
China is paying for wrong acction when releasing unsual huge amount money in 2008!
Tom Tran
The situation is not that grey, but it's too ignorant to say BAU. Those countries have always been like that, lots of ups and downs, but they are not going to crash like Western countries. The structure of the economy is very stable with the majority of hard currency earnings are from oil/mineral exports and high demand agricultural produces, and very little from services or manufacturings, which is not prone to inside or outside shocks like the industrial worlds. The great experiment under the current prime minister (pro-growth by massive state subsidized investments in inefficient state coporations with no oversight, controlled by interest groups with connection to his relatives and fringes) has failed miserably, and it's time to move back to its comfort zone: slow growth but manageable. I am positive that they (the CPV) has finanlly recognized the problem and moved to tame the issue. When will it be controlled? it really depends on how deep they can fix the system before the next economic crisis or a potential sea clash with China.
Saigon Rat
There was an astonishing lecture at an AMCHAM function last week in Ho Chi Minh City by the Vietnamese economist Le Dang Doanh. He accused China of counterfeiting Vietnamese currency. (It is being counterfeited in China – BTW. There have been arrests made at the border).
The dispute in the East Sea has damaged Vietnam's economy.
Bank ownership and liabilities are so tangled that no one is exactly sure
what bank is responsible for what debt.
As the article notes, FDI has crashed. And as the article notes, Vietnam is looking for a bail-out,
but preferably not from the IMF.
applesauce
Minxin Pei is a perennial china doomsayer and highly anti-prc or as the chinese call him, a banana, you could quote him randomly from the things he has said and it will be something about how bad the chinese government is or how the economy is doing bad, regardless of what the economy is actually do at the time. using him as a evidence of how bad the economy is in china is very flawed at best. and last i checked china is far from financially depleated, in fact it is one of the few governments in the world with enough financial firepower to have significat room to manover in this continued world economic slump.
Ira123
Do you get double pay from the PRC government if you work in a racial attack on an author?
Jose Pidal
Classic scaremongering when no evidence exists that Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia would be vulnerable to Vietnam's problems. Internal consumption, particularly in Indonesia and Philippines, drives the growth in those countries. They have sufficient protection this time to withstand a crisis like in 1998.