Amid naval jostling in the East China Sea and nuclear rumbles on the Korean Peninsula, it is easy to miss a missile making a splash in the Indian Ocean.
Security watchers are understandably focused on North Asia at the moment, where it is hard to tell if the next headline won't be about a North Korean nuclear test or, even worse, an exchange of fire between Chinese and Japanese ships. Yet India has recently sent a signal that it cannot be ignored as part of the increasingly complicated strategic equation across Indo-Pacific Asia.
The widely-known facts are few and simple. On January 27, the day after Indian Republic Day, India conducted a test flight for a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
Most reports suggest the missile had a range of 700 to 750 km.
But what is important is that India is working towards the ability to launch a nuclear weapon from a submarine. In theory, this would give New Delhi a second-strike capability — the confidence in being able to shoot back effectively after sustaining a nuclear attack. Submarines are often considered the ultimate second-strike platform because they're hard to find and hard to target, notwithstanding the potential for rail- and road-mobile launchers to achieve something similar.
To be sure, India has a long way to go before it can be confident in deterring, say, China with a fleet of nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed submarines, or SSBNs. For now, its sole SSBN, is basically a technology demonstrator. It's not clear if the INS Arihant, notionally launched in 2009, will ever really conduct deterrent patrols.
And there are serious technical challenges ahead in arming this vessel or the 3-6 such boats the Indian Navy hopes for in its future fleet. As Andrew Winner has asked, can India miniaturize a nuclear warhead to fit these relatively small missiles, and can it do so without further nuclear testing? Is New Delhi stuck with the relatively modest range of this armament? And what does that mean for its ability to genuinely deter China, given the risks of having to patrol close to the Chinese coast in some hypothetical future crisis?
Bear in mind that currently the China-India nuclear balance is asymmetrical — Beijing can deter Delhi but Delhi is less confident it can deter Beijing. That reminds us that the biggest questions here are about geopolitics and crisis management.
Assuming that it is only a matter of time before India has a nuclear-armed Navy, will that be on balance stabilizing or destabilizing for the Indo-Pacific strategic picture, whether India-China relations or India-Pakistan relations? In other words, would it make war more or less likely, and more or less devastating? Some early assessments are not heartening.
Given the massive consequences of miscalculation in a future nuclear-armed confrontation, however hypothetical it may seem at the moment, it would make sense for these powers to start discussing such matters in earnest.
China and India have agreed in principle to begin a dialogue on maritime security. As a co-author and I have argued in a previous report, it's time they began talking about nuclear stability too.
Reddit
Digg
StumbleUpon
Delicious
Technorati
Yahoo
Google
Plurk
Devindra Sethi
India's nuclear policy as explictily stated by the political leadership is, a 'no first use against non nuclear states'. No less no more. This is as agreed upon across all political party lines. India's peaceful rise in the Indo – Pacific region is well documented and poses no threat to any country, as we covet no country's territory.
The vigorus defence of India's territories has been visible since 1947 and the Indian armed forces will repel any invader with serious consequences to assertive powers.Living in a tough neighbourhood with two states armed with nuclear weapons as neighbours, India correctly chose the option to acquire similar capabilities.
The government of India chose to acquire weapons of mass destruction to deter all potential advesaries. To this end the complete gamut of systems has been carefully produced indigenously and today a triad of systems exist in the armoury of the Indian armed forces. As media reports published in the recent past have indicated the AGNI 5 missile carrying a nuclear warhead has a reported range capability of 5000kms+ .This is a road mobile, canisterised,solid fuel weapon, recently displayed on our Republic Day, 26 Jan 2013.
At sea the Dhanush missile carried on surface ships has been deployed since 1998. This missile has a nuclear tipped warhead, successfully tested in the Pokhran 2 series of explosions under the guidance of then PM AB Vajpayee. This has been improved upon over the years for range & precision strike with a CEP in single digits. The SLBM type BO- 5 as highlighted in this article, is the current prime weapon for the ARIHANT class of SSBN's coming into service.A fair comparision would be the USN Polaris A1 SLBM, for capabilities associated with this missile in ballistic mode. The missile scientists of India however have added superior capabilities to this missile in a depressed trajectory mode. It travels at hypersonic speeds in this mode and is capable of manouvering to nullify countermeasures from anti – missile systems.Naturally ranges differ for each chosen mode. The missile has a nuclear tipped warhead.
The combat range capabilities of the Polaris A1 missile was 2000kms+, from a submerged submarine. Our SSBN's will roam the Indian Ocean and seas around us ensuring MAD with China and Pakistan. All coastal cities, military stations, ports,industrial centres of production,underground missile storage centres etc. are legitimate targets.
The Indian missile programme was launched by Mrs Indira Gandhi in the 1980's.Our missile capability has come of age and the next series will see an underwater launched missile with capabilities mirroring our AGNI 5. This indigenous capability in the strategic sphere is to ensure an umbrella over India, ensuring that democracy flourishes in our country and nuclear blackmail by assertive neighbours is eschewed and nullified. The use of force against us especially from WMD's stands crimped permanently.
Bankotsu
I hope India can build up its naval projection capabilities and start to deploy forces to the persian gulf and also to the mediterranean where it can link up with its Russian ally.
takam
It will take ages before India can pose a serious threat to China. The political meddling and myopic leaders will ensure that.
Girish
INS Arihant is a technology demonstrator. Two follow-on similar class Nuclear Sub are already under construction.
SLBMs will be tested in high sea using INS Arihant before their inductions. Total 5 Arihand class sub with operational SLBMs (k-4 and K-16 missiles)are in plan before 2024. This is part from total 12 new scoprio class diesel sub already under construction (after ToT) which will join Indian Navy by 2022. All this is aprt from new 54 warships (42 being developed indigenously) to be joined Indian Navy by 2022 with 3 operations aircraft carriers (INS Vikramadiya, IAC-1 (under construction), IAC-2 (under design))
Kanes
Best guarantee of East China's security is disintegration of India. When disintegrated, no former Indian state will be large enough to house nukes safely and access to sea will be limited.
Bankotsu
India should build more ICBMs that can hit targets across the pacific and atlantic. If their ICBMs are of limited range, other powers will take India for granted.
barrythebear
China is not worried by any developments currently being made by India, rather, it is greatly worried by the growing proximity of U.S. maritime forces and the presence of B-2 bombers in Guam and other places that are within a stone's throw of Chinese cities and ports on its eastern coast. The Jeju naval base is expected to be completed in 2014 and it directly represents a dangerous threat to the capital Beijing. A U.S. carrier sailing out of Jeju can easily have Beijing within range of its deck-based attack fighters while still claiming to be innocently sailing in "international waters". This is far more dangerous than anything that can possibly from the rest of the entire world. Jeju is surely the future Pearl Harbor in China-U.S. relations except in this case it is the exact reverse of the 'original' one.
Exaggerated Nonsense
Dream on. Chinese missile and radar will be aimed and locked on to US assets on Jeju island and sailing out from Jeju island 24/7. They will be under constant surveillance. Don't expect US warships to escape once aggression is initated by it. Think again. The chips are with China, not the US. You imagine US warships sailing out of tiny "Hongkong" will devastate China? What is Jeju, really?
denis
Have you ever considered the fact that, while Chinese radar ( thanks to Mr Wang Xiaomao !) is now possibly one or even two steps ahead of Russian systems, is still highly behind U.S. systems and that the Israeli Air Force employed the Suter ECM system to make their planes invisible to Syrian radar during its Jamarya raid on January 30 2013 ? And by the way, how did Hong Kong become involved in this discussion? Please tell me. I am keen to have a whiff of your esteemed knowledge on this subject. You seem very overly keen to paint Chinese defence as something highly invincible. I am curious !
denis the menace
"The chips are with China", are you nuts? Who do you think is currently pursuing the pacific pivot policy, Beijing ? Who's calling the shots and who's filling the bases in the nearby areas, the PLA ? Have you ever heard of Big Safari ? Do some research first before posting any half-baked comment.
mishmael
Even If India builds exactly as many warheads as China, and develops the exact same ICBMs and SLBMs (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles) with the exact same specifications, it would still have less of a deterrence towards China due to the followig factors:
1. Pakistan would take up a significant part of, and therefore neutralize, a significant part of the Indian nuclear arsenal
2. China occupies the high ground in the Himalayas – Its radars on the Tibetan plateau have a height advantage in detecting Indian missiles
3. Indian and Chinese SLBMs are not of intercontinental range, so unless India makes the stratiegic decision to place SLBMs in the South China Sea or in the West Pacific, they would not pose much of a threat to Chinese population centers; concrrently, even short range Chinese missiles in Tibet can easily cover much of the denslypopulated Ganges watershed
4.Chinese population centers are quite far from the Indian-Chinese order, giving China more time between detection and countermeasures wherehas Indian population centers do not enjoy similar delay time
5. China has built numerous nuclear shelters during the Cold War, not to mention extensive subway systems in many large cities which can double as fallout shelters in a pinch; India lacks such infrastructure
To achieve true parity after accounting for these factors, India would have to build more warheads than China and possess better missiles than China. It can be safely assumed that China would not stand still and wait for India to achieve nuclear parity. SO FOr the forseeable future, India would almost certainly experience a permanent nuclear handicap vis-a-vis China.
Kanes
Agree.
Pakistan is a very good leverage for China. It makes sense for China to arm Pakistan the same number of warheads India has. Pakistan can take care of India's west coast with most economic nerve centres while China already covers the entire eastern India easily.
Any Chinese navy bases in Bangladesh, Maldives and Sri Lanka will be a bonus. String of pearls?
Girish
first of all, I do not see any war happening between India and China. China as more serious issues to tackle in south china sea, handle Japan, US's asia pivot etc rather then thinking for going for war with India on the border dispute.
It is also importantt that India is not like those of small contenders which China has to deal in south china sea issues. India has battle experienced million men army with all type of mordern weapon systems at its disopsal (specailly in todays time, if it was not in 1962, including nuclear weapons). Also India has much stronger diplomatic support right from US, Russia, Japan etc.
Not to forget growing economic tires between India and China. China has no interest in hostility towards India as it can create massive problems for China in Indian ocean.
On Nuclear Submarines, weapons etc etc, we are growing in all domains. India is only going to surprise more and more in next 10 years with its peaseful rise.