Avoiding US-China Military Rivalry
By Michael Swaine
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PlurkA new Cold War between the US and China isn’t inevitable. But better inter-military communication will be needed to stop one, says Michael Swaine.
Despite the mostly friendly nature of President Hu Jintao’s state visit to Washington last month, the potential still exists for the US-China relationship to become much more adversarial, especially in the military-security arena.
A combination of deepening strategic distrust (found most notably within the militaries of the two countries), China’s steady acquisition of maritime power projection capabilities, the persistence of bilateral tensions associated with territorial issues along China’s maritime periphery, and a growing sense in China of the United States’ economic decline could prod both countries to view Asia as a zero-sum game and look for ways to counter each other’s military actions. If this is to be prevented, the two countries will need to start considering more long-range, strategic communication.
Since the 1990s, China has increased its military spending by an average of more than 10 percent per year as it seeks to modernize its defence forces. Beijing now has close to 50 modern diesel submarines, and is developing a new class of nuclear submarine. China also has new short-, intermediate-, and long-range ballistic missiles—both conventional and nuclear—while its medium-range missiles can already reach many parts of Asia, including Japan and several US airbases. As a result, China’s growing capabilities and its ability to reach beyond its borders are causing concern not just within the Asia-Pacific region, but in the West as well.
China’s neighbours—notably Japan and Southeast Asian nations—are worrying about how they might counter China’s growing ability to regularly deploy forces in the region, and are concerned that China will directly confront other countries over territorial and resource issues in the South China Sea and East China Sea.
In response, Japan is shifting the deployment of its military southward, while Southeast Asian nations are acquiring greater offshore capabilities. They are also looking to the United States—as the region’s dominant military power—to provide a counterbalance to China’s growing power.
And Washington isn’t sitting idle. It is deploying more forces to Guam, reaching a better understanding with Japan about the use of force during crises, increasing surveillance and patrolling along China’s coast, selling more arms to Taiwan to deter Beijing from using coercive means, and engaging in classified efforts to counter China’s missile threat to US warships.
But as the two militaries grow more suspicious of one another, they are driving the competitive and adversarial dimensions of the overall bilateral relationship. The concern is that perceptions on both sides—Washington can increasingly see a more assertive and aggressive China, and Beijing a United States in a prolonged period of decline—will fuel the feeling of strategic rivalry. The assumption that military competition will ultimately lead to a Cold-War type situation is the biggest threat to stability.
Image credit: US Army
prabhat
i always support the china and his Maoist party and hope the peoples republic of china must delete all the world’s population and there are only one types of peoples are lived in earth and they were the mongoloid chines peoples.
it is all are the bad war.
its is the great man’s theory Darwin’s law survival for existence.
SCdad07
From the Telegraph 10-Aug-11: Title: ‘US’ warns ‘China’ over spy planes
‘US’ has warned ‘China’ that it will ‘seriously harm” the relationship between the two countries if it continues to fly its spy planes close to the ‘US’ coast.
How will US react if that is true?
China 4ever
The Chairman of the US joints chief of staff has just concluded a visit to China. he stressed the neeed for co operation between the two countries.Guess waht happened next?US spy plaes are eaves dropping on China.Is that the way to build trust?
If I were the PLA defence chief I would make sure China won’t be bullied as ain the past. This shows you can’t trust the words of the US. Only a strong China maybe with 500 nw would get the respect of the US.
Joesph Brown
China is flexing their muscles, and slowly starting intimidate countries in the South China Sea. Everyone keep your eyes on SRI LANKA , its gonna be a very important part in CHINA & USA relations. China is helping fund ports there and its on the other side of India ( US Ally). CHINA is assisting Sri Lanka in building their army.
Thomas C
Hey JB , i totally agree with you . SRI LANKA ,VIETNAM , PHILLIPINES , TAIWAN all these countries are all pawns in this chess game.
Mike_47
Have you guys watched “Sri Lanka’s Killing Fields” Documentary by Channel 4 in UK . You google it. Its very disturbing but kind of gives you an idea of whats going on there.
TAO
Wrong! Chinese wrote “Art of War”, they will use minimal expense to balance US. for every dollar chinese spent, US will spend 50. it’s just matter of time, USA goes down like Soviet. if US wants to live, they have to cut their defense spending to under 10% of GDP.
peace
Amri Diharja
No,, i think china and southeast asia countries offer mutual relation one another. They work together in the development of economy, for example establishing Asean China Free Trade Area. Although , its impact of free trade is not yet analized detailly. Try to see in http://www.mtib.gov.my/repository/woodspot/website_acfta_23july09.pdf, there can be viewed the relation of trade between ASEAN and China.
fred c
If I were the PLA Chief of Staff, the analogy would be the game of go. It is a long game, played with pieces like factories, missiles, alliances and foreign reserves. This is a game that neither side wants to see fought in a hot war. The long run advantage lies with the US unless its political system can not handle its budget problems. The best scenario is that the Chinese middle class becomes so dominant that some form of power sharing occurs and Taiwan becomes so integrated that it becomes a non-issue.
Unfortunately there are certain issues like Senkaku/Diao yu tai that the US seems to have taken the wrong side. A call to war by China on Senkaku would mobilize the majority of the population, maybe most of the rest of the world would support China. The US would be in a difficult position of having to defend the US Japan alliance over a historical injustice. To balance Chinese power in that eventuality the US will have. to spend tremendous amounts of money over the next 25 years, money both sides could use to much better purpose.
Leonard R.
The US and China are already in a cold war. It’s just that the small elite in the US Government are trying to ignore it. But the American public and the military are increasingly demanding that their government wake up.
It will be a hot war in our lifetimes, unless by some miracle, the people in the PRC manage to overthrow the thugs who run the government.
Even if that were to happen, I believe the rulers of the PRC would rather go up in a mushroom cloud than face the wrath of their own people.
The PLA is is very reckless with its words. It threatens to nuke, LA. Even line officers like Tony Cao spout anti-American dribble. I don’t think the civilian leadership of the PRC even has them on a leash.
There have been numerous massive cyber-attacks against the US Government. The PLA is designing a missile to attack US carriers, even as those carriers protect the shipping lanes that allow China to accumulate foreign reserves.
The US & China are already at war. The problem is that only one side is fighting it. America needs to wake up. Take this out of the hands of diplomats and give it to the Pentagon & the Seventh Fleet.
John G
It’s fine and all to talk about and aim for cooperation with the Chinese military. However the US and all of the Chinese neighbors should not be complacent. History suggests the middle kingdom usually pretends to be your friend when she needs time. He she gets stronger and becomes more powerful, she will bully her way through. Already you can see an incredible level of arrogance displayed by many of her citizens nowaday.
eb1
I think you’re in fact talking about Japan.
scrow
Thats right John G is talking about Japan.
Fred A
China is already bullying Vietnam in the Paracel Island and the Philipines in the Spratly Islands.