Play The Diplomat’s Quiz: November 29, 2015 Edition

The U.S. Navy may be gearing up for its second freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea within 12 nautical miles of a Chinese artificial island. Bill Gertz, at the Washington Free Beacon, citing U.S. officials with knowledge of matter, reports that two U.S. Navy warships will sail within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef. The operation is expected to take place in “several weeks.” The U.S. Navy carried out its first freedom of navigation operation within 12 nautical miles of a Chinese artificial island on October 27, when an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, the USS Lassen, sailed past Subi Reef.

The choice of Mischief Reef for a second freedom of navigation operation makes sense and should help the Obama administration assert that it does not recognize any territorial sea claim around these features in the Spratly Islands. As I wrote recently, the October 27 operation left matters ambiguous, causing considerable disagreement among many well-informed South China Sea experts about what precisely the United States asserted with its freedom of navigation operation there. The United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS) determines the conditions under which certain features generated maritime entitlements, including 12 nautical mile territorial seas and 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zones.

The children of veteran communists who held high-ranking offices in China before 1966, the first year of the Cultural Revolution, are commonly called “princelings.” There are princelings by birth — sons and daughters of former high ranking officers and officials of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) — and princelings by marriage.

Princelings by birth could also be further divided into subcategories: princeling politicians, princeling generals, and princeling entrepreneurs. President Xi Jinping, for instance, is a typical example of a princeling politician. Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, was a veteran communist who served as secretary general and vice premier of the State Council in the 1950s and the 1960s and as a Politburo member in the 1980s. Yu Zhengsheng, the No. 4 ranking Politburo Standing Committee member and chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, is also a princeling politician whose father, Huang Jing (Yu Qiwei), was the first communist mayor of Tianjin and the first minister of No. 1 Machine Building Industry. Huang was once married to Li Yunhe (i.e., Jiang Qing), who later married Mao Zedong.

Despite repeated incidents over the last year, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain unable to settle their Fergana valley border. A meeting last week between the two sides resulted in a draft agreement on 519.9 kilometers of the border but Bishkek and Dushanbe have been unable to agree on disputed sections. Both countries also have unresolved border issues with Uzbekistan, with which they share patchwork borders in the fertile Fergana valley, home to a growing population.

During the recent G20 Summit in Antalya, Turkey, asenior Indian diplomat tweeted, “With the completion of procedures, including administrative arrangements, the #IndiaAustralia Civil Nuclear Agreement will enter into force.” He described the development as a “milestone achievement.” While support for the deal in New Delhi is unequivocal, there are voices in Canberra who are concerned that the agreement undermines traditionally important Australian non-proliferation interests. These fears are misplaced. The risk of India diverting uranium to its weapons program are overstated and ignore the incentives for New Delhi to abide by civil nuclear regulations.

The maternal mortality rate (MMR) in Australia is 1 in 10 000. In Singapore, it is 1 in 8000.

In nearby Papua New Guinea, the lifetime risk of a mother dying during pregnancy remains 1 in 20.

With some of the worst maternal mortality statistics in the world on Asia’s doorstep, and with the target year for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) approaching, the time has come for the Asia-Pacific region to critically reflect on how to respond to consistently dire statistics with an effective coordinated response that aligns with the SDG agenda.

Since 2000, the fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) has sought to improve maternal health through a) a reduction by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, of the maternal mortality rate as well as b) universal access to reproductive healthcare by 2015. Globally, improvements were made over this period, with a halving of the global MMR, a reduction in maternal health complications, as well as acknowledgement of the need for adequate maternal health education.

Papua New Guinea has, however, defied the trend with one of the most consistently poor maternal and infant mortality rates in the Asia-Pacific. If Papua New Guinea’s MMR had achieved the MDG target reduction stipulated in Goal 5.a., then the MMR would have been 98 deaths per 100,000 live births. Instead, from 2008-2012, it sat at approximately 703 deaths per 100,000 live births. This number indicates a failure by the international community to adequately address the underlying local issues.

Economics and security headlined during Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s two-day visit to Kazakhstan over the weekend, underscoring mutual concerns and painful realities in both Astana and Kabul. Ghani also made what has rapidly become a standard stop by high-level visitors to Astana: delivering a speech at Nazarbayev University. The trip was Ghani’s first official visit to Kazakhstan.

Among the deals settled between the two countries was a contract for 600,000 tons of Kazakh wheat. According to TOLOnews, an Afghan news site, Ghani commented that “Kazakhstan is one of the biggest wheat producers in the region and we need imported wheat in next five years.” He also noted that Kazakhstan is a steel producer and Afghanistan’s infrastructure development plans necessitate a solid supply.

Kazakhstan may not be party to some of the grander-scale regional integration schemes, like the TAPI pipeline or the CASA-1000 project, but it stands as the region’s most successful economy. The boom times seem to be over however, with low oil and gas prices cutting into Astana’s pockets. While marketing wheat and steel to Afghanistan isn’t going to make up the missing revenue, it does further Astana’s goals to act as a regional power and a global player.

Last week, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced that the U.S. Department of State approved the possible sale of three RQ-4 Block 30 (I) Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and associated equipment to Japan.

U.S. Congress has to approve the sale within the next 15 days in order for the United States and Japan to begin negotiating the actual $1.2 billion arms deal. In detail, according to the DSCA, the Japanese government has requested the sale of:

• Three (3) RQ-4 Block 30 (I) Global Hawk Remotely Piloted Aircraft with Enhanced Integrated Sensor Suite (EISS)
• Eight (8) Kearfott Inertial Navigation System/Global Positioning System (INS/GPS) units (2 per aircraft with 2 spares)
• Eight (8) LN-251 INS/GPS units (2 per aircraft with 2 spares)

The primary U.S. defense contractor on the deal would be Northrop Grumman Corporation in Rancho Bernardo, California.

Perhaps the only thing surprising about the news that a group of Tajik parliamentarians have worked up a draft law to give President Emomali Rahmon the title “Leader of the Nation” is that it hasn’t happened before. Then again, amid economic downturn, insecurity on the Afghan border, and forced closing of even nominal opposition political parties, the title is a reiteration of who is in charge.

According to Asia-Plus, one of the bill’s sponsors, Abdurahim Kholiqzoda, said that the bill’s main goals are “strengthening foundations of the constitutional order, state independence, and protection of all good initiatives of the elder of the democratic rule-of-law Tajikistan.”

China has signed a ten-year contract to open up its first military base overseas – in Djibouti, at the intersection of the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea – according to a U.S. military official. Kristina Wong ofThe Hill cited U.S. General David Rodriguez, the commander of U.S. Africa Command, confirming the news to defense reporters.

China is “going to build a base in Djibouti, so that will be their first military location in Africa,” Rodriguez said. He described the base as a logistics hub that China would use to “extend their reach.”

Though China has consistently refused to confirm reports that it will establish a military presence anywhere overseas, the government of Djibouti has talked openly about the prospect. Back in May, President Ismail Omar Guelleh told AFP that China and Djibouti were in talks about opening up a Chinese military base. A Chinese military presence would be “welcome,” he added.

Russia’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War is leaving the former Soviet republics on the Caspian Sea littoral in an uncomfortable place. Caught between their historic relationships with Moscow and concerns for their own security, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan are clearly in an unenviable political position. Moreover, unprecedented Russian military action risks destabilizing otherwise steady diplomatic ties.