Play The Diplomat’s Quiz: February 28, 2016 Edition

Last week, China’s Ministry of Defense confirmed for the first time that construction on “support facilities” for the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa, has started. Colonel Wu Qian, a spokesperson for the Chinese defense ministry, said on Thursday that “construction of infrastructure for the support facilities has started, and the Chinese side has dispatched personnel to Djibouti for relevant work.” China has been careful to avoid describing its facility in Djibouti as a “military” or “naval” base, preferring to use the terms “support facilities” or “logistical facilities” instead. Djibouti hosts military and support facilities for the United States, France, and even Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Forces.

According to Wu, China will use the bases primarily to ensure that PLAN ships carrying out anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden, western Indian Ocean, and the Arabian and Red Seas are able to resupply and receive maintenance without making the long journey across the Indian Ocean to Chinese naval bases on the mainland. Wu added that the “facilities will mainly be used for logistical support and personnel recuperation of the Chinese armed forces conducting such missions as maritime escort in the Gulf of Aden and waters off the Somali coast, peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance.”

From: What Is THAAD, What Does It Do, and Why Is China Mad About It?

Keeping this feature set in mind, why is China so upset about a potential THAAD deployment? The answer, I think, has to do more with the monitoring capabilities that are part of the THAAD package. Beijing isn’t, for instance, worried that a THAAD deployment in South Korea would threaten any ballistic missiles it would plausibly fire at the United States–again, THAAD only works against ballistic missiles in the terminal phase and not against inter-continental ones anyway. Lyon evaluates China’s concerns:

China’s right to believe that THAAD surveillance data could be transferred to other BMD assets protecting [the continental United States (CONUS)]. Indeed, one of THAAD’s missions would be to strengthen U.S. defenses against the possibility of North Korean ballistic missile attack on CONUS. So it has to be able to transfer data to CONUS-based radars and interceptors. But the United States already has a THAAD battery deployed on Guam, two AN/TPY-2 radars deployed in Japan (at Shariki and Kyogamisaki), space-based assets, plus a range of ship-borne radars and larger land-based radars in other parts of the Pacific theatre. Would a THAAD deployment in South Korea change much? The short answer is that it could improve early tracking of some Chinese missiles, depending on their launch point. Still, that might not make actual interception of those missiles much easier. ICBM warheads move fast. And sophisticated penetration-aids help to confuse missile defenses.

Canberra is reportedly carrying 800 relief personnel, along with sixty tons of relief equipment. The Royal Australian Air Force has already begun relief operations, and elements of the Royal New Zealand Navy have joined Canberra in the assistance mission.

The 27,500-ton amphibious assault ship, constructed in Spain and Australia, entered service in late 2014.  She and her sister can, in expeditionary combat configuration, carry over a hundred vehicles. In air support configuration, they can carry eighteen helicopters (8 is standard capacity). The well deck allows the rapid deployment of vehicles and personnel from ship to shore, especially in areas where docking structures have been damaged or destroyed. Canberra can remain on station for an extended period, especially when acting in conjunction with air and other sea assets.

Japan’s demographic problems aren’t going to go away anytime soon–not that anyone was expecting them to.

The country’s latest census figures show that its population decline is slowly and steadily marching forward. As of October 2015, Japan’s population had declined to 127.1 million people, which represents a 0.7 percent decline since the last census. Japanese policymakers, long aware of the country’s shrinking population, haven’t been able to intervene to raise birth rates in the country. Meanwhile, immigration, which is extremely low in Japan compared to other developed states, has been a politically unpopular option.

The latest census, remarkably, shows that nearly one million Japanese have disappeared since the last census was conducted in 2010. According to the internal affairs ministry, 947,000 fewer Japanese exist today. Just eight prefectures in the country saw their populations increase. The census found population increases in the capital area of Tokyo, but saw a major dip in Fukushima, which lost more than 100,000 people since 2010, primarily due to the mass evacuation after the meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant after the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.

Speaking at the Air Force Association’s annual Air Warfare Symposium, U.S. Air Force Secretary Deborah James unveiled the first artistic rendering of a new long-range bomber and said that the aircraft would be designated the B-21. 

The image displayed at the conference shows an angular flying wing, a tailless fixed-wing aircraft with no definite fuselage that very much resembles the Northrop Grumman B-2 stealth bomber.

Explaining the close resemblance to the B-2, James notes that “the B-21 has been designed from the beginning based on a set of requirements that allows the use of existing and mature technology.”  The artistic rendering is based on the initial design concept, she said.

India will soon allow women to take up combat roles in all sections of its military, the President of India and supreme commander of the Indian Armed Forces, Pranab Mukherjee said in an address to both houses of the Indian Parliament this week, the Times of India reports.

“My government has approved the induction of women as short service commission officers and as fighter pilots in the Indian Air Force. In the future, my government will induct women in all the fighter streams of our armed forces,” Mukherjee said on the eve of parliament’s budget session. “In our country ‘Shakti’, which means power, is the manifestation of female energy. This Shakti defines our strength,” he added.

Cyclone Winston, which made a direct hit on the Fijian island of Koro over the weekend, was the first Category 5 cyclone to make landfall on Fijian territory in recorded history. The latest reported numbers indicate that 42 people have died as a result of the storm, with aid agencies warning that more may die in the storm’s aftermath as the small country rushes to reach communities on remote islands.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a U.S. agency, the storm’s winds were estimated to have reached 185 mph. Tom Di Liberto, a meteorologist with NOAA’s climate prediction center, wrote that it  “was one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere.”

With the storm over, the recovery has begun but the task is monumental. The Fijian government declared a month-long state of emergency and put out calls for assistance. The storm did not make a direct hit on the country’s capital, Suva, but wreaked havoc on Koro and many of the country’s other islands. There are more than 330 Fijian islands, about a third of which are inhabited.

Wednesday, Afghanistan accepted a gift of 10,000 AK-47s and millions of rounds of ammunition from Russia. In recent months there has been much discussion about increased Russian engagement with Afghanistan, although Moscow’s cooperation with Washington’s initiatives–such as peace talks with the Taliban–remains seemingly out of the question.

Speaking at a ceremony to accept the weapons gift, Afghan National Security Adviser Mohammad Hanif Atmarsaid: “This important donation is from an important friend of Afghanistan in a crucial time for Afghanistan and the region.”

Twenty-seven years ago this month, the final Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan, where they’d been fighting a war for a decade. The communist government of Muhammad Najibullah, which they left in Kabul held out for three more years until the collapse of the Soviet Union cut off the financial inflow from Moscow, estimated at $3-4 billion annually, and the mujahedin closed in.

The Indian Navy’s first indigenously developed ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN), the INS Arihant, could be commissioned as early as next month, according to local media reports.

“It has passed all tests and in many things has surpassed our expectations. Technically the submarine can now be commissioned at any time,” a senior defense official told The Economic Times.

The submarine has undergone extensive deep sea diving drills and weapons launch tests. During the various tests, conducted in utmost secrecy off the coast of Vishakhapatnam, the boomer has been accompanied by a Russian submarine rescue ship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the RFS Epron.

Which country do Americans think is the United States’ “greatest enemy”? Russia? Iran? China? If you said any of those, you’d be wrong. According to a recent Gallup poll, a plurality of Americans see North Korea as the greatest threat to the country, overtaking Russia, which took the top spot last year. 16 percent of Americans polled by Gallup said Pyongyang deserved the “greatest enemy” superlative this year. Russia, Iran, and China took honorable mentions with 15, 14, and 12 percent respectively. Overall, 8 percent of Americans view North Korea in favorable terms.

I should note that North Korea topping this year’s ranking shouldn’t be taken as a sign that Americans have grown significantly more fearful of Pyongyang. In 2014 and 2015, North Korea came in at 16 and 15 percent as well. Instead, it seems that North Korea captured a plurality of American anxiety this year due to shifts elsewhere in public perception. Notably, Russia and Iraq yielded three percentage points each. Moreover, Iran shot up this year, gaining five percentage points, taking it from 9 percent in 2015 to 14 percent in 2016. (Curiously, Tehran was tied with Pyongyang at 16 percent in 2014–the dip in 2015 may have been due to the negotiating process over the nuclear deal.)