Play The Diplomat’s Quiz: August 14, 2016 Edition

From “TPP Update: A US ‘Lame Duck’ Ratification Looks Less Likely Every Day“:

The politics of TPP ratification in the United States are, however, a great source of anxiety for the other eleven states. As I’ve explained before, the requirements baked into the TPP on the agreement’s entry into force ensure that the United States must be on board. In short, all 12 signatories ratify the agreement painlessly, the agreement enters into force 60 days after the last member ratifies it. If all twelve fail to ratify, the agreement still can come into effect if six original signatories, representing 85 percent of TPP country GDP between them, ratify the agreement.

The 85 percent requirement, in particular, means that without the United States, there is no TPP. For the TPP’s other signatories, the agreement’s ratification is a major litmus test for U.S. credibility. Obama, with months left in office, has stressed that he thinks Congress “will ultimately support” the deal, but it’s looking less likely every day that he’ll be one to convince U.S. lawmakers to do it.

Helmand, Afghanistan’s largest province, is slowly crumbling as the Taliban intensify their summer offensive against the Afghan government. On Wednesday, Nawa-i-Barakzayi district, adjacent to the provincial capital district of Lashkar Gah, became the latest of Helmand’s 14 districts to fall to the Taliban. With Nawa, the Taliban control 11 of 14 districts in the province. The fighting in Helmand has now gone on for several weeks, but the tide of the battle seems to be favoring the Taliban.

An estimated 10,000 Chinese nationals work in Zimbabwe.

No sooner had 26 nations wrapped up a meeting in Indonesia on countering terror financing than a spate of bombs exploded in Thailand, underscoring the difficulties the authorities face in ending a scourge widely blamed on Islamic militancy.

The Government of India had formed an expert committee to suggest tax rates that will benefit both the center and the states. As per the “Report on the Revenue Neutral Rate and Structure of Rates for the Goods and Services Tax (GST)” published in December 2015, a four-band tax structure has been recommended: zero percent for essentials, 12 percent for “merit” goods consumed mostly by poorer people, a standard rate of 17-18 percent, and 40 percent for luxury goods. The GST will not cover alcohol and petroleum products, but the states have been given the rights to set their own rates on such high-revenue items.

The next biggest hurdle for GST will come in the states, as at least 16 state legislatures must also ratify the new GST Constitutional amendment. Then the Central GST and Interstate GST bills (which will set the actual tax rates) will be presented in the Indian parliament, yet another challenge to be met before the concept of single tax becomes a reality. The opposition parties are demanding a cap of 18 percent on the tax. This will become a contentious issue, as the revenue from taxes goes up to 27 percent in some of India’s states. The single tax will now subsume over 15 different taxes both at the central and state levels, but the GST will lead the government into uncharted territories when it comes to prevalent taxes in states. If the government does not put a cap on the maximum tax rate, the ultimate sufferers will Indian consumers. It is not clear, though, how the central government proposes to compensate states for the loss of tax revenue if it does decide to cap the tax at 18 percent.

Oksana Chusovitina, a Bukhara-born gymnast, has been competing longer than many of her competitors have been alive. At 41, she is among the oldest Olympians appearing in the 2016 Rio Games and will be the oldest gymnast to compete in history of the modern games, stretching back to 1896. Last weekend she qualified for the finals in women’s vault, ranking fifth after the United State’s 19-year old Simone Biles; North Korea’s 27-year-old  Hong Un-jong; Giulia Steingruber, 22, of Switzerland, and Russia’s Maria Paseka, 21.

The Sri Lankan government has publicly announced that it is intends to purchase eight to 12 new multirole combat aircraft for the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF),according to local media reports. Last week, Sri Lanka’s President, Maithripala Sirisena and his Cabinet have officially granted the country’s defense ministry permission to solicit offers from foreign aircraft manufacturers for the procurement of new aircraft and associated weapons systems on a government-to-government basis.

Vietnam has quietly expanded its military capabilities in the South China Sea by purportedly deploying new Israel-made long-range mobile rocket launchers on five bases in the Spratly Islands in recent months, Reuters revealed on August 10.

The United States Department of Defense has decided to effectively withhold a $300 military reimbursement tranche to Pakistan, citing Islamabad’s inadequate attention to the fight against the deadly Haqqani network. Justifying the decision to withhold reimbursement on account of the Haqqani network is a first by the United States, despite threats along the same lines last summer. Broader military reimbursements were temporarily frozen in 2011, following the bilateral fallout after the U.S. raid against Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abottabad, but resumed later that year.

Shortly after an international tribunal awarded the Philippines a sweeping victory in its legal case against China’s actions and claims in the South China Sea, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte signaled his willingness to seek bilateral talks with Beijing on the issue. In particular, he tapped former President Fidel Ramos as a special envoy to China, a position Ramos accepted after initially expressing concerns about his health.

The 88-year-old statesman has now begun his duties as the Duterte administration’s point-man on China talks. On Monday, Ramos left for Hong Kong, where he will spend five days speaking with “old friends,” as he, the Philippine and the Chinese governments have all put it. That makes Ramos’ visit effectively a very high-profile “Track II” dialogue – one retired official meeting with other retired friends for unofficial (but government-approved) talks. The hope is that the talks this week – with as-yet-undisclosed Chinese partners – will lay the groundwork for official dialogues in Beijing at a later date.