Play The Diplomat’s Quiz: October 9, 2016 Edition

Running between Miyako Island and Okinawa Island in Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture, the Miyako Strait is just wide enough to accommodate an international waterway through Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

The Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait bear considerable strategic importance for the PLAAF and People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) as they permit China access to the Western Pacific beyond what Chinese strategists have called the first island chain, a set of islands running from the Kuril Islands in the Sea of Japan to the Philippines and Borneo.

The U.S. Navy’s battle fleet has 276 vessels today. Its shipbuilding plan envisions maintaining a battle fleet of 308, which it expects to achieve in 2021. Despite a plan that calls for building 254 vessels over the next 30 years, this pace of construction will eventually be offset as older vessels are decommissioned, causing the fleet to shrink back under 300 by the 2030s.

On Thursday, the Indonesian Armed Forces (Tentara Nasional Indonesia, or TNI) held their largest exercises to date off the resource-rich Natuna archipelago in the South China Sea. The exercise marks another notch in Jakarta’s approach to the Natuna archipelago, where tensions have risen with China after a series of incidents involving Indonesian naval and maritime law enforcement authorities and their Chinese counterparts. Indonesia, under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, has placed a particular emphasis on safeguarding its maritime sovereignty, in particular against illegal foreign fishing trawlers.

On September 15, Japan’s Democratic Party (DP,Minshin-to) elected Renho Murata, who had been serving as acting leader, president of the party. Renho won a landslide victory against two other contenders, former party leader Seiji Maehara and Yuichiro Tamaki.

Her election is a telltale sign of the DP’s desperation for party renewal. With the party’s approval rate hovering below 10 percent, it is clear that those who supported Renho, particularly over Maehara, felt strongly that a clean break from the party’s past is necessary to start winning back the public’s confidence.

On Sunday evening, Thailand’s royal palace released a statement that 88-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s health was in an unstable condition following hemiodialysis treatment. The Thai king is the world’s longest reigning monarch and statements by the Thai palace on his health are closely scrutinized.

Though the palace’s carefully worded statement did not offer any specifics on his prognosis beyond the fact that the king’s health was uncertain, Thai citizens and observers of the country alike have been holding their breath for the royal succession, which is likely to be marred by a degree of political turbulence.

In the wake of the deplorable attacks against the Indian Army in Uri, Jammu & Kashmir, tensions in the New Delhi-Islamabad bilateral, which were already running high over the preceding weeks, escalated further. In addition to pursuing Islamabad’s diplomatic isolation within the region, India indicated that it will review Pakistan’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) status, granted to Pakistan under its World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. Surprisingly, India also indicated that it will ‘review’ the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the one bilateral treaty between the two countries that has stood the test of time – even through the most difficult of times in the relationship.

Reviewing the IWT does not automatically imply its abrogation. Yet, it would be pertinent to assess two factors: Are there any downsides to withdrawing the MFN status or abrogating the IWT, for India? If yes, what are they? Are they manageable?

While there appears to be a high degree of public support in India for withdrawing the MFN status and rescinding the IWT, one could expect New Delhi to not abrogate the IWT.

The Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC) in India met on August 11 this year to review a safety report by its sub-committee discussing genetically modified (GM) mustard crops and the possibility of introducing them to Indian soil. The Dhara Mustard Hybrid-11 or DMH-11 is indigenously developed and, if implemented, would be the second GM crop to gain free approval for cultivation in the country. The GEAC has not granted full approval yet and instead was soliciting comment, feedback, and suggestions. The last day for submissions was October 5. With the deadline behind us, farmers, activists, and corporations alike now await a final decision.

On Wednesday, October 5, the International Court of Justice decided against proceeding with the Marshall Island’s nuclear disarmament case, which was lodged earlier against India, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom. The small Pacific Island nation had entered proceedings at the ICJ earlier this year at the Hague-based court, which is the primary judicial arm of the United nations.

The case grew out of a legacy of nuclear weapons testing in the Marshall Islands by the United States between 1946 and 1958; in 2014, the Marshall Islands filed suit against nine nuclear weapon states at the ICJ — China, North Korea, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States — accusing them of insufficiently “fulfilling their obligations with respect to the cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament.” India, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom ended up defending themselves at the ICJ this year over their declarations to accept ICJ’s compulsory jurisdiction under article 36, paragraph 2 of the court’s statute.

After years of pushing for membership, Timor-Leste is now ready to become the 11th member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The process of Timor-Leste’s accession into ASEAN has been ongoing for a number of years. The country was recognized as an ASEAN observer in 2002 and joined the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2005. Southeast Asia’s newest state submitted a formal application to join the regional bloc in 2011.