After more than seven years, the end is finally in sight for New Zealand’s anti-Islamic State deployment in Iraq.
The government recently announced that the remaining two personnel deployed to Iraq and Kuwait as part of the Global Coalition to Defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will be withdrawn by the end of June 2023.
The mission has lasted far longer than the original two years that were planned.
John Key of the National Party, then New Zealand’s prime minister, initiated New Zealand’s contribution toward the multilateral coalition when he sent 143 soldiers to Iraq in February 2015. Upon committing the troops, Key famously challenged other parties in Parliament to “get some guts and join the right side” by supporting the deployment.
At the time, New Zealand’s involvement in the anti-ISIS mission was opposed by the Labor, Green and New Zealand First parties, which were then in opposition.
Key was initially adamant that the deployment would end within the two-year period – but Andrew Little, Labor’s leader at the time and now the minister in charge of intelligence services, warned of the potential for “mission creep.”
Little’s warning turned out to be prescient.
Jacinda Ardern, who succeeded Little as Labor leader shortly before she became prime minister after the 2017 election, extended the mission in 2018. The extension came despite ISIS losing all territory it had previously held in Iraq by the end of 2017.
To be fair, the number of New Zealand troops deployed to Iraq gradually fell over time. The last remaining 45 New Zealand soldiers who were directly involved in training Iraqi soldiers at the Taji military base, near Baghdad, were withdrawn in early 2020.
New Zealand’s embassy in Baghdad, opened in 2015 to support the deployment, also closed in 2020. But the government seemed unwilling to pull the plug on the operation altogether. A handful of New Zealand troops based in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar continued to be deployed to the anti-ISIS mission.
New Zealand’s role in Afghanistan began with the deployment of elite Special Air Service (SAS) troops for a 12-month mission in late 2001, followed by a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in 2003. As with Iraq, the mission was repeatedly extended by various New Zealand governments – always with the view that the job was not quite done.
Ardern’s justification from September 2018 – “ISIS remains a threat” – was a case in point.
Of course, there were differences with Afghanistan too. While 10 NZDF soldiers died in Afghanistan, no New Zealand lives were lost in Iraq. There was also no equivalent to the controversial October 2010 incident known as “Operation Burnham” that caused the death of five Afghan civilians.
These are both points to be thankful for. To some extent this can be explained by the fact that New Zealand soldiers largely operated “behind the wire” training Iraqis at Camp Taji.
But New Zealand’s mission was far from risk-free.
Citing Kurdish sources, The Guardian reported in 2016 that New Zealand SAS soldiers were also deployed in Iraq. The claim that was met with only a qualified denial from Gerry Brownlee, the defense minister in the National-led government in power at the time.
Moreover, Camp Taji itself came under repeated rocket attacks in early 2020, killing two U.S. troops and a British medic. The attacks were thought to have been conducted by Iran-backed groups in retaliation for the killing by the United States of top Iranian commander Qassim Soleimani in January of that year.
After losing all of its territory in Iraq by 2017, ISIS faced a similar defeat in Syria in 2019. But like al-Qaeda before it, ISIS has also inspired an ideology. To some extent, this ideology has inspired sympathizers to commit terrorist attacks well beyond Iraq’s borders.
While most of these were in Europe, this past weekend marked the first anniversary of an ISIS-inspired stabbing attack that left eight wounded at an Auckland supermarket.
The perpetrator, Ahamed Samsudeen, was a Sri Lankan national who had come to New Zealand as a student in 2011. He later gained refugee status, although this was later revoked.
While in New Zealand, Samsudeen apparently self-radicalized with the help of ISIS propaganda. He was arrested at Auckland Airport in 2017, from where authorities believed he was attempting to travel to Syria.
Samsudeen was held in prison on remand for a total of four years on relatively minor charges, before being released and shadowed by police in 2021 who shot and killed him during his knife attack.
After the Countdown supermarket stabbings, New Zealand passed new counterterrorism laws that criminalized the plotting of terrorist attacks.
In Iraq itself, the past week has illustrated that huge challenges remain despite ISIS’s defeat.
Baghdad saw some of the worst violence it has seen in years, after supporters of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and rival Shiite groups loosely backed by Iran battled each other in the capital’s fortified Green Zone. The clashes resulted in 30 deaths, along with hundreds of injuries.
Iraq has been without a government since elections in October 2021, in which al-Sadr’s party won the largest number of seats – but not a majority. Al-Sadr’s announcement last week that he would leave politics essentially triggered the violence, while his pleas for calm a day later largely stopped it. It remains to be seen whether the political deadlock can be broken, but civil war is not off the table if clashes between the groups resume.
Iraq’s ongoing political crisis, combined with economic malaise that was only exacerbated by COVID-19 – youth unemployment reached a record 27 percent last year – provide a recipe for discontent.
New Zealand appears to have some awareness of this: While the military deployment is ending, the government is pledging to “refocus” the commitment to “non-military workstreams… to continue the fight against violent extremism and address the longer-term security and humanitarian challenges faced by the Government and people of Iraq.”
These are fine words, but the extent of New Zealand’s future assistance seems to be limited to a small contribution of 4 million New Zealand dollars over the next three years – which is unlikely to go far, given the scale of the challenges that Iraq faces.
Any notion that New Zealand is leaving Iraq for good needs to be set against the fact that the anti-ISIS contribution that John Key originally announced in 2015 was New Zealand’s third Iraq-related mission in 30 years.
This may be the end of the road for New Zealand’s military deployment to defeat ISIS. But it is unlikely to be the last Kiwi mission to Iraq.
This article was originally published by the Democracy Project, which aims to enhance New Zealand democracy and public life by promoting critical thinking, analysis, debate, and engagement on politics and society.