The military situation in Myanmar is changing rapidly. Since launching a resistance offensive known as Operation 1027 late last month, the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic resistance groups, supported by smaller People’s Defense Forces, has secured large swathes of territory across northern Shan State close to Myanmar’s border with China. Rebel forces have captured an estimated 150 military outposts, cut major border crossings, and seized control of numerous towns and strategic highway junctions.
At the same time, allies have launched attacks on junta positions in other parts of the country. As rebel forces make gains, some observers are now arguing that it is a matter of when, not if, Myanmar’s military government, formed after the coup d’etat in early 2021, will collapse.
The Diplomat’s Southeast Asia Sebastian Strangio speaks with Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, in Washington, D.C., and the director of the Center’s China Program, about the progress of Operation 1027 and the question of how China’s government is reacting to the conflict on its border.