India’s much-anticipated general elections are set to run from April 19 to June 1, 2024. During those 44 days, Indians will cast their ballots to determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) receive a third consecutive term in power – something that most analysts expect to happen. Despite a much-ballyhooed opposition alliance – with the catchy name of INDIA, short for the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance – the coalition has never fully meshed.
What will be foremost on the minds of Indian voters as they head to the polls, and how healthy is India’s democracy as it increasingly heads toward one-party rule? The Diplomat discussed these issues with Dr. Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist who is the pro vice chancellor of the Jain University and director of its Centre for Research in Social Sciences and Education (CERSSE).
Shastri noted that both Hindutva and caste identities play a role in determining voter choices, but so do economic concerns. However, “economic factors seem to have greater salience when it comes to state elections than national elections,” he said.
While the inauguration of the Ram temple in January created much religious fervor in India, how important is it likely to be in influencing voter decisions?
The launch of the temple with the installation of the idol of Lord Rama was carried out with tremendous fanfare and fervor. The timing of this event was politically significant as it was a few months prior to the nation going to polls.
The political buzz around the event has been clear and visible. The BJP has clearly highlighted the fact that this was one of the key agendas of the party and the same stands fulfilled. However, those who support the BJP on this issue were already with the party. Support on this factor peaked in the 2019 elections, and there seems to be limited scope for more support to be garnered on this issue.
What the BJP could best do is consolidate and strengthen the already committed voters. Further, especially in the Hindi heartland where the BJP has managed an impressive electoral performance in the last two elections (2014 and 2019) the launch of the temple may help the BJP to make up for any loss of support on account of any anti-incumbency caused by being in power for 10 years (and some of its Members of Parliament having completed more than two terms).