The complete withdrawals of U.S. and French military forces from Niger in July 2024 and December 2023, respectively, created a significant power vacuum in the Sahel region of Africa. This vacuum presents significant opportunities for actors like China, whose influence in Niger has been steadily rising.
The military withdrawal from Niger by both U.S. and French forces opens up a multi-pronged opportunity for China to invest into Niger, eschewing solely economic cooperation and moving to potential bilateral military collaboration efforts in the future.
In July 2023, several factions of the Nigerien armed forces seized power in a coup d’état, detaining then-President Mohamed Bazoum and installing General Abdourahamane Tiani, the commander of Niger’s presidential guard, as the new Niger head of state. While the United States, France, and many other nations denounced the takeover, China avoided any “controversial” statements, refusing to acknowledge the events as a “coup” and hoping for a “political resolution” to the Nigerien military overthrow of the government.
China’s adherence to a non-interference policy in this scenario enabled its increased presence in the region, particularly in light of U.S. and French military withdrawals within a year of the coup’s anniversary.
China has also played a significant role in developing Niger’s infrastructure, with a large focus on harvesting Niger’s natural resources, chief among them oil and uranium.
Niger’s robust oil and petroleum refinery industries have been built solely due to infrastructure investments by PetroChina, the commercial arm of the Chinese state-owned company China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), which announced the completion of its near-2,000 kilometer pipeline from Niger’s prized Agadem oil field to Benin in March 2024. PetroChina has also invested in the SORAZ refinery, which was inaugurated in 2011. PetroChina’s long-standing presence in Niger dates back to 2008, when the firm cemented its partnerships in the region at a time when most others had abandoned the area due to increases in armed conflict.
Niger is home to significant uranium deposits that comprise about 5 percent of the world mining output. Chinese state-owned enterprises China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and China Nuclear International Uranium Corporation (SinoU), as well as majority Chinese-owned Societe des Mines d’Azelik (SOMINA), are among the largest, if not the largest, non-Niger companies currently operating in the country’s uranium industry. China’s state-owned Eximbank also provided a loan worth over $90 million to the Nigerien government to develop the Zelik Uranium Mine Project in 2009, cementing the Chinese foothold in securing Niger’s uranium stockpiles.
French state-owned mining company Orano (formerly Areva), which previously had a de facto monopoly on uranium mining in the region until 2007, was evicted from Niger in June 2024.
China has also been behind other large-scale infrastructure projects in Niger, to include a $1.3 billion railway line between Maradi, Niger and Kano, Nigeria and the $800 million Kandadji hydroelectric dam project.
The withdrawal of U.S. and French troops from Niger significantly altered the regional security landscape. The stated reasons for these withdrawals included frustration with the political situation in Niger following the 2023 coup, as well as a broader strategic shift by both the United States and France. This has opened a window for China to potentially expand its military footprint in Niger.
While China is not likely to directly replace the Western military presence, it could offer security assistance in the form of equipment sales. Precedent has already been set for this, with Niger already using China’s WZ551 armored personnel carriers, among other types of equipment. Additionally, a Tuareg-led rebel group, Le Mouvement des Nigeriens pour la Justice (MNJ), alleges that China has previously supplied arms to Nigerien military operations in exchange for mineral concessions. The decrease in U.S. and French military presence could bolster the possibility and likelihood of these occurrences.
Additionally, China could increase military engagement with the Nigerien military through bilateral training exercises and military exchanges with the Nigerien military. China has already utilized such policies in promoting bilateral collation with Niger’s neighbors, participating in joint exercises with the Nigerian navy and having an ongoing presence of Chinese peacekeepers in Mali, among many others.
The withdrawal of U.S. and French military forces from Niger presents a unique opportunity for China to expand its military influence in the Sahel region, in addition to growing its current stranglehold on Niger’s economic infrastructure. The region’s instability is spilling over to other countries in West Africa, with Niger’s neighbor Chad threatening to remove U.S. troops from its soil. The expansion of Chinese military presence in Niger and in Africa is one that must be watched closely in the years to come.