The pandemic shut down global travel for much of the world, and especially for China, which imposed some of the tightest and longest-lasting restrictions on international arrivals. The result was a cratering number of flights to and from China. When Beijing lifted its restrictions in 2023, the hope was that the menu of international flights would rapidly increase. That hasn’t happened – and in fact, some of the airlines that did resume flights to China are now pulling back out.
This is partly for reasons outside of China’s control. The global aviation industry has been divided into two camps: Those airlines that are permitted to fly over Russia, and those that aren’t. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, much of the world has placed sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s government. In return, Putin has slapped no-overfly sanctions on airline companies from the nations that have sanctioned Russia.
The practical effect of Russia’s move to deny international carriers access to its airspace is that most of the European countries that would normally use routes that fly over Russia in order to reach China and other East Asian countries are now forced to use longer and therefore more expensive southern routes that skirt the Black Sea and the Russian border, and cross the Caspian right through the middle. Such adjustments are costing customers one to four hours of extra flying time, and airlines extra crew and fuel costs.
The fallout and to some extent the benefit is mostly focused on China. Rather than trying to out-compete Chinese airlines, which Russia has not sanctioned and which are therefore welcome to fly over Russian airspace, several major international airlines have decided to just drop their direct flights to mainland China altogether.
That there is a political component in this shake-up is inarguable. However, the airline Virgin Atlantic, whose last flight from Shanghai into London will be on October 26 of this year, strongly defends its decision as solely based on business criteria.
Virgin Atlantic, Richard Branson’s upstart airline that since the 1980s has dared to challenge the supremacy of flag-carrier British Airlines, cited “purely commercial” reasons for its departure from the mainland Chinese market.
Noting Virgin Atlantic’s strong fan base, and its probable willingness to absorb longer flight times and some extra cost if necessary, The Diplomat asked the airline if there are “any reasons other than commercial considerations that influenced the decision of Virgin Atlantic to cancel the London to Shanghai route?”
A Virgin Atlantic spokesperson told The Diplomat that “significant challenges and complexities on this route have contributed to the commercial decision to suspend flying to Shanghai.” In particular, the spokesperson said, “Operations have become increasingly costly due to increased flight times as we are not able to overfly Russia.”
In other words, the commercial decision is indeed a result of a larger political environment over which Virgin has little control.
Virgin is not alone. Qantas, Australia’s flag carrier, has also just ended its Sydney to Shanghai route. Qantas’ problem has nothing to do with a flight path over unsafe and unwelcome space, however. Instead, it’s motivated by a lack of demand – something probably linked to increased tensions between China and Australia.
Qantas International CEO Cam Wallace told The Diplomat, “Since COVID, the demand for travel between Australia and China has not recovered as strongly as expected. In some months, our flights to and from Shanghai have been operating around half full.”
Starting from July 28, Qantas’ flights to Shanghai were suspended due to flagging demand.
Moving forward, Wallace said, “We’ll continue to maintain a presence in China through our partners and our existing flights to Hong Kong and look to return to Shanghai in the future.”
Both Virgin and Qantas cited commercial rationales for grounding their flights. India, however, is quick to assert that its direct-to-China flights, which ceased four years ago, will remain grounded for the foreseeable future – and the reason seems to be entirely and unashamedly political.
India and China have had no direct flights since 2020, when a border dispute that has overshadowed the India-China relationship for decades flared up into a deadly clash in the Galwan Valley. The situation remains unresolved and tense, with thousands of troops mobilized on both sides.
Reuters reported last month that airlines from both nations are “talking” with their respective governments. China has been pushing India to open up direct flights, but so far the Indian government hasn’t budged. Indian officials cited in the piece repeated New Delhi’s mantra that “Unless there is peace and tranquility on the border, the rest of the relationship cannot move forward.”
If the absence of direct passenger flights has in any way mirrored or paralleled the relationship status of the countries which are shutting down their direct flights to China, it doesn’t seem to be across the board.
Virgin pulled its China route because it was unprofitable due to the ban on using Russian airspace. Qantas shut down its last route into China because demand did not return after COVID-19. And India has dug in its heels, it seems, vetoing a resumption of direct flights for purely political reasons – yet it continues a thriving bilateral trade with China despite their deep diplomatic divisions.
As Shreya Upadhyay wrote for The Diplomat in May 2024, “In fiscal year 2024, bilateral trade between the two nations reached $118.4 billion, with India heavily reliant on China for critical products such as telecom and smartphone parts, pharmaceuticals, and advanced technology components.”
The “decoupling” of these direct flight routes does, however, brings into question China’s evolving relationship with the world. The situation makes it easier for the foreign community to seek out other destinations – and perhaps even other investment opportunities at the same time. Note that Qantas is substituting the Sydney to Shanghai route with a Brisbane to Manila route; the Philippines is always eager for foreign investment.
At the same time, it reinforces China’s always present instinct to isolate, to turn inward again. As one Chinese contact told me upon hearing of the theme of this article, these foreign airlines “may receive a thank you letter from China, for helping keep our people at home.”