The Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Dr. Valbona Zeneli – nonresident senior fellow at the Europe Center and Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council – is the 426th in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.”
Explain Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s primary objectives for her recent trip to China and whether she achieved them.
This was Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s first official visit to China (and the first of an Italian leader in five years), primarily aimed at strengthening economic and commercial ties by revitalizing bilateral relationships in sectors of mutual interest. Discussions on global issues, particularly the situation in Ukraine, were also included in the agenda.
It appears that the five-day visit was quite successful given the overall context. Meloni has been clear and resolute in distancing herself from China on significant geopolitical and human rights issues, including withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative and calling out Beijing’s position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, she has been cautiously pragmatic to avoid jeopardizing trade relations between China and Italy.
Meloni timed her trip perfectly to mark the 700th anniversary of Marco Polo’s death with the exhibition “The Travels,” highlighting Marco Polo’s historical significance and symbolic value in building bridges and creating a path from Italy to China.
The highlight of the visit was the inauguration of the Italy-China Forum, held to mark the 20th anniversary of the Global Strategic Partnership, a trade forum initially launched by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in 2024 to enhance trade relations between the two countries. In this framework, I believe that the key outcome of Meloni’s visit was the three-year (2024-2027) signed plan designed to strengthen cooperation across various sectors, including trade, scientific and technological innovation, green development, and institutional collaboration. Six agreements were signed covering a range of areas from industrial cooperation to food safety and education.
Analyze the key challenges and opportunities for Rome in resetting relations with China after withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Italy’s decision not to renew the five-year cooperation plan and withdraw from the BRI was one of Prime Minister Meloni’s most significant foreign policy moves, reflecting her transatlanticist approach and intention to realign Italy’s foreign policy with that of other G-7 countries. She reiterated during her visit to China that her choice to exit the BRI was a matter of consistency.
Italy’s membership in the BRI in 2019, a heavily criticized move of Giuseppe Conte’s populist government, granted China access to Italy’s advanced industries, markets, and technologies. However, it did not yield the expected benefits for Italy and increasingly revealed its limitations. While China gained significant trade advantages, Italian exports did not grow as anticipated, resulting in a trade deficit with China of 41 billion euros for Italy in 2022.
In 2023, bilateral trade was 67 billion euros in 2023, making China the second-largest non-European trading partner for Italy after the United States. It seems that Meloni sees the new collaboration plan as significantly different from the one that linked the two countries through the BRI, particularly focused on “fair and mutually beneficial” economic relationship with objectives of “fair competition and free trade.” In the Italy-China business forum, she focused on the need to improve market access for Italian companies, as over 1,600 of them operate already in China with a volume of shares of over 15 billion euros.
How is Rome using this China visit to project European leadership vis-à-vis the weak standing of leadership in Paris and Berlin?
I believe the visit was a diplomatic success for Prime Minister Meloni inking a series of important economic deals, especially given the broader context with several important factors to consider.
First, Italy’s exit from the Belt and Road Initiative in December 2023 was seen as a significant setback for China’s flagship policy in global affairs.
Second, Italy’s G-7 presidency and Meloni’s enhanced role in global developments were noteworthy, particularly in light of the strong language on China in some G-7 final statements.
Third, there is more and more explicit criticism and concern regarding China’s support for the Russian war in Ukraine, as reflected in the final communiqué of the latest NATO Summit.
Fourth, Italy has increased its active role in the Indo-Pacific region with deployments of individual naval ships and an aircraft carrier group alongside France and Spain, while also deepening security cooperation with South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
Fifth, the visit of Meloni came after those of [German Chancellor Olaf] Scholz and [French President Emmanuel] Macron, showing that relations with European countries are very important for Beijing, and Italy’s role can be crucial.
Evaluate Meloni’s efforts to maintain economic and trade relations with China in the face of EU-China trade tensions.
The EU policy on China is a balancing act between economic needs and political and security concerns. Italy is one of the EU countries that has a clear approach, recognizing the necessity and the risks of the partnership, and balancing tensions between the public and private sectors.
I believe that one of the issues in the future will be Italy’s agreement with China on electric vehicles, as part of the industrial cooperation memorandum signed last week. As a reminder, those have become a symbol of EU-China trade tensions, as the EU imposed provisional tariffs of up to 37 percent on China made electric vehicles in July, with Beijing launching retaliation tariffs on European pork exports.
Assess the strategic implications of Meloni’s trip to China following NATO’s description of China as an “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The final communiqué of the NATO Summit strongly emphasized the deepening strategic partnership between Russia and China, criticizing their efforts to undermine and reshape the rules-based international order. In line with this, Prime Minister Meloni has been explicit and consistent about addressing China’s support for Russia, stating during her visit in Beijing that China currently has no advantage in bolstering Russia’s industrial capacity. She reiterated that China could play a decisive role and sent the message that she would like to see “steps to be taken in the right direction” following President Xi’s remarks that “China always strives for peaceful coexistence among people.”