Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Kyiv, following his diplomatic engagement in Moscow last month, marked a significant step in India’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict. This visit, occurring against the backdrop of prolonged hostilities, suggests a deeper strategic intent.
With both India and China increasingly positioning themselves as key players in global diplomacy, the Ukraine war has become an arena for showcasing their peacemaking capabilities. As China’s efforts to mediate the conflict have faced challenges, India’s engagement hints at a new dimension in the quest for global influence. For both India and China, positioning themselves as successful peacemakers is not just about resolving the Ukraine crisis; it’s also about enhancing their global credibility as new emergent powers, capable of resolving realpolitik issues.
For China, asserting itself as a mediator bolsters its image as a responsible global power capable of challenging U.S. dominance and extending its influence beyond Asia. For India, demonstrating diplomatic leadership in such a high-stakes conflict supports its aspirations to be a major player in global governance and a voice of reason in global affairs. The evolving roles of these two Asian giants not only reflect their ambitions on the world stage but also underscore the complex interplay of strategic interests and operational realities in the quest for peace in Ukraine.
China’s Strategic Foray Into the Ukraine Conflict
China’s role in the Ukraine war has been marked by cautious engagement, balancing its deep ties with Russia against its interests in maintaining economic relationships with Europe and the broader West. Earlier this year, China presented a 12-point peace plan that called for a ceasefire and resumption of negotiations. However, this plan was met with skepticism, particularly from Ukraine and its Western allies, who viewed Beijing’s proposal as subtly supporting Russia’s position.
China’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict is not just about peacemaking; it is a strategic move to assert its influence in a region where Beijing has traditionally had limited sway. By proposing a peace plan, China aims to project itself as a responsible global power capable of shaping outcomes in major international conflicts.
However, its close alignment with Russia complicates its ability to act as a neutral mediator. Its perceived partiality toward Russia undermines its efforts to be seen as a credible mediator, especially when contrasted with its successful mediation in the Middle East.
India’s Calculated Engagement in the Ukraine War
India’s involvement in the Ukraine war has been more restrained, reflecting its historical commitment to non-alignment and strategic autonomy. Modi’s visit to Kyiv signals India’s willingness to play a more active role in the conflict, potentially positioning itself as a mediator. Unlike China, India does not have the same level of strategic commitment to either Russia or Ukraine, giving it a unique advantage in being perceived as a more neutral player.
India’s approach to the Ukraine conflict has been shaped by its need to balance multiple strategic interests. On one hand, India has deep historical ties with Russia, including dependence on Russian military equipment. On the other hand, it has been strengthening its strategic partnerships with Western democracies, driven by shared concerns over China’s rise. This balancing act is evident in India’s cautious stance on the Ukraine war, where it has called for dialogue and respect for sovereignty without explicitly condemning Russia’s actions.
The operational realities of the Ukraine war – marked by sustained military engagement, economic sanctions, and geopolitical realignments – present both opportunities and challenges for India. By engaging with Kyiv and Moscow, India can leverage its position to facilitate dialogue and explore avenues for de-escalation. However, the deeply entrenched positions of both sides, coupled with the involvement of major powers, make successful mediation a daunting task.
India’s role as a peacemaker will depend on its ability to navigate these complex dynamics, balancing its strategic interests with its desire to contribute to global peace.
Peacemaker vs. Peacemaker
The competition between India and China for the role of peacemaker in the Ukraine war is a microcosm of their broader strategic rivalry. Both countries are seeking to assert their influence in a conflict that has far-reaching implications for global security and power dynamics. However, their approaches reflect differing strategic priorities and operational considerations.
China’s peacemaking efforts are driven by its desire to project itself as a global leader and counterbalance U.S. influence. Its economic leverage and strategic partnership with Russia provide it with significant clout. However, the operational complexity of the Ukraine war, with its shifting battle lines and high-stakes geopolitical implications, exposes the limitations of China’s approach. The failure of its peace plan to gain traction highlights the challenges of maintaining neutrality in a conflict where its strategic interests are closely aligned with one of the parties.
India’s approach, by contrast, is characterized by caution and strategic ambiguity. By not committing too strongly to either side, India seeks to maintain its credibility as a neutral actor. This approach allows India to engage with both Russia and Ukraine, potentially positioning itself as a bridge between conflicting parties. However, India’s involvement in the peace process is still in its early stages, and its ability to influence the course of the conflict remains uncertain. Any peace-making efforts will require deft diplomacy and the ability to address the underlying strategic concerns of the parties involved.
China’s Failed Efforts and India’s Opportunity
China’s failed attempts to mediate in the Ukraine conflict contrast sharply with its success in the Middle East, where it brokered a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The failure to gain acceptance for its Ukraine peace plan reveals the challenges China faces in conflicts where its strategic interests are perceived to undermine its neutrality. This failure provides an opportunity for India to step in and offer a different model of peacemaking – one based on neutrality, dialogue, and strategic autonomy.
The Ukraine war presents India with a chance to demonstrate its diplomatic capabilities and enhance its global standing. By engaging with both sides and advocating for dialogue, India can contribute to de-escalating the conflict and potentially pave the way for a peaceful resolution. However, India’s success will depend on its ability to navigate the strategic and operational nuances of the conflict, balancing its relationships with Russia and the West while maintaining its credibility as a neutral mediator.
The Ukraine war has emerged as a critical stage for India and China to demonstrate their peacemaking prowess. While China’s efforts have encountered obstacles due to perceived biases and strategic alignments, India’s more neutral stance offers a different, potentially more effective, model of mediation.
Modi’s visits to Moscow last month and now to Kyiv have given New Delhi a direct ear to the demands, concerns, and possibilities of each side in this conflict. This strategic positioning allows India to gather nuanced insights and build trust with both parties, which can be leveraged to find a stalemate solution to this three-year-long war. By understanding the core issues from both perspectives, India can play a crucial role in promoting a ceasefire and setting the stage for meaningful negotiations.
These diplomatic engagements present India with a valuable opportunity to up its game in the peacemaking competition, demonstrating that it has the diplomatic finesse and strategic acumen to handle complex international conflicts. As the Ukraine war continues to unfold, India’s actions in the coming months will be crucial in defining its role and influence in the new global order.