The recently concluded Quadrilateral (Quad) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Tokyo reaffirmed collaboration between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States for “a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is inclusive and resilient.” The joint statement emphasized that the four states “are united in our commitment to upholding the free and open rules-based international order.” The foreign ministers of the Quad countries reiterated the need to strengthen the strategic alignment amid regional uncertainties.
The meeting was significant for two key reasons. First, there is a growing pessimism about the future of the Quad due to the lack of a leaders’ summit so far this year. The leaders were expected to meet last January in India, but the meeting was postponed due to U.S. President Joe Biden’s busy schedule.
The foreign minsters’ joint statement indicated that the leaders’ summit would be convened later in 2024. This commitment follows a recent assurance from the U.S. State Department, although no specific dates have been announced. However, with the United States already in the election mood, concerns over Biden’s health, and the United Nations General Assembly happening later this year, it is unlikely that the summit will be held in 2024.
Undeniably, the leaders’ summit gives a strong boost to the expansive agenda of the Quad, yet the foreign ministers’ gathering has certainly moved the needle.
Second, there was a collective strong assertion against China. Obviously, none named China, but a veiled counter to Beijing’s aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific region was central to the discussion. The joint statement’s direct reference to “the situation in the East and South China Seas” and reiteration of “strong opposition to any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion” invited obvious reactions from Beijing.
China has left no stone unturned in creating a warlike situation in the South China Sea, particularly targeting the Philippines. The recent confrontation between China’s Coast Guard and the Philippine military, along with Beijing’s so-called “punishment” drills around Taiwan in May, demonstrated China’s aggressive tactics and disregard for a peaceful and orderly region.
While China criticizes the Quad as embodying a “bloc mentality,” its own unilateral, aggressive, and expansionist actions reveal the true source of regional tension.
Given the United States’ already strong commitment to defending its interests and deterring military aggression against its partners and allies, including across the Taiwan Strait, unequivocal support for an orderly and peaceful Indo-Pacific serves to counterbalance China. Although the Quad is not a formal security alliance, its collaboration in raising pertinent and timely issues and its commitment to addressing them collectively hold significant security value.
Beyond China’s aggressive actions, the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Tokyo emphasized the need for enhanced cooperation on cybersecurity in the Indo-Pacific region. This includes strengthening supply chain security, boosting the resilience of critical sectors, and protecting critical infrastructure.
The Quad’s specific joint call to protect “critical infrastructure, including secure commercial undersea cables from trusted vendors” deserves closer examination. Early this year, 25 percent of global telecom traffic was disrupted when four major undersea cables in the Red Sea were cut by Houthi militants near Yemen. Such incidents severely disrupt global internet connectivity and heighten fears of espionage.
There is growing concern about potential Chinese espionage targeting undersea cables, which poses a significant threat. U.S. State Department officials have already raised concerns that undersea cables are vulnerable to tampering by Chinese repair ships. This threat cannot be underestimated, given China’s track record of cyber intrusions and its strategic interest in global communication networks. A concerted effort from the Quad is necessary to secure these critical infrastructure components and prevent any potential sabotage.
Beyond forming a subtle strategy to counter China’s aggressive actions, the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Tokyo saw reaffirmations on enhanced maritime domain awareness, the deployment of an open RAN network in Palau, announcements about offshore solar power projects in the Indo-Pacific, a space-based climate warning system to be launched in Mauritius, and strengthening regional stability and cooperation indicated an expansive agenda.
Additionally, the Tokyo meeting emphasized support for maritime security, humanitarian assistance, counterterrorism efforts, and climate action. India is reported to have bargained big for adding counterterrorism in the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Joint Statement, as it has long been a victim of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. Islamabad finds diplomatic protection from China at multilateral forums, including the United Nations, so finding support in other international groupings is vital for New Delhi.
The Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting appears to have ended on a promising note, with each member nation benefiting individually while delivering a unified vision for the Indo-Pacific region. However, the forthcoming Quad leaders’ summit will be pivotal for shaping the alliance’s future engagements and assessing its effectiveness.
Should Donald Trump return to office in the United States, there are concerns that the Quad could risk becoming more of a discussion forum rather than a decisive force for action. This potential shift underscores the need for sustained commitment and strategic clarity to ensure that the Quad remains a robust and influential entity in addressing regional challenges.