Amid China-U.S. great-power rivalry, the strategic terrain of international relations has shifted dramatically in recent years, particularly in the context of military capabilities. One of the most significant developments has been China’s advances in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology. The September 25 test launch of the Dongfeng (DF)-41 ICBM, conducted by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), serves as a clear indication of China’s growing military prowess and its determination to assert its strategic influence on a global scale. This test, marking China’s first publicly confirmed ICBM launch in 44 years, occurred against the backdrop of escalating tensions with the United States, highlighting the complex dynamics of great power competition.
The DF-41, introduced into service in 2017, stands as a formidable component of China’s nuclear arsenal. With an operational range of 12,000 to 15,000 kilometers (approximately 7,460 to 9,320 miles), the DF-41 has the capability to reach the U.S. mainland. This ICBM is designed to carry nuclear warheads, positioning China as a key player in the nuclear arena. The recent launch of the DF-41, which included a simulated warhead that accurately landed in a designated area of the Pacific Ocean, reflects not only advanced missile technology but also an organized military strategy.
China’s missile testing is part of a broader strategy to modernize its military capabilities, which have seen substantial growth over the past few decades. Between 1992 and 2020, China’s defense spending increased by an astonishing 790 percent, Oriana Skylar Mastro revealed in her recent book “Upstart: How China Became A Great Power.” This huge investment has facilitated the development of new missile systems, naval assets, and advanced air capabilities, enabling China to project power beyond its borders and challenge U.S. dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.
China’s last known atmospheric test of an ICBM occurred in May 1980, when the DF-5 missile successfully traveled over 9,000 kilometers to its target in the South Pacific. The recent test of the DF-41 breaks this lengthy hiatus and underscores China’s evolving military doctrine. The test was characterized by Chinese officials as a “routine exercise for the PLA Rocket Force, [which] emphasizes both weapon performance and troop readiness.”
This launch is not an isolated incident but rather part of a broader pattern of missile testing and military exercises that have increased in frequency in the Asia-Pacific region.
The heightened missile activities come amid growing tensions with the United States, which has ramped up its military presence in the Indo-Pacific. The Pentagon’s latest assessment of China’s military modernization reflected a concern that the PLARF is advancing its long-term plans to enhance its “strategic deterrence” capabilities. The report estimated that by 2022, China had around 300 ICBMs, including the DF-31 and DF-41, with ongoing construction of three new solid-propellant silo fields. This arms buildup raises questions about the stability of the region and the potential for miscalculation or conflict.
As tensions rise, military exercises conducted by both the United States and China have become more frequent and complex. The U.S. has engaged in extensive naval operations in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and other regions, often involving joint exercises with allies such as Japan, Australia, and the Philippines. These exercises serve to enhance collective defense capabilities and demonstrate a united front against perceived threats from China. In this context, the U.S. military seeks to reassure its allies and partners of its commitment to maintaining regional stability.
Meanwhile, China’s military assertiveness is not limited to missile tests; it is also evident in its naval expansion. The PLA Navy has become the largest navy in the world with more than 370 vessels, including advanced submarines, destroyers, and aircraft carriers. The deployment of these assets has been accompanied by large-scale naval exercises in contested waters, signaling China’s intent to assert its territorial claims and challenge U.S. naval dominance.
The implications of China’s military advancements extend beyond the Asia-Pacific region. The ICBM test and ongoing military exercises reflect a strategic shift in how China interacts with its neighbors and the broader international community. As China seeks to establish itself as a global power, its military capabilities play a crucial role in shaping its diplomatic interactions and regional policies.
The relationship between China and the United States is further complicated by the ongoing great power competition, characterized by increasing tensions in multiple sectors. This rivalry encompasses military, economic, and technological domains, leading to a multifaceted struggle for influence on the global stage. China’s recent ICBM test serves as a potent reminder of the stakes involved in this competition, particularly as both nations expand their military capabilities and assert their respective positions in the international system.
In response to China’s growing assertiveness, the United States has sought to bolster its alliances in the region. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia are increasingly participating in military exercises alongside U.S. forces, indicating a collective effort to counterbalance China’s influence. However, these nations face the challenge of balancing their economic ties with China against their security partnerships with the U.S. The economic repercussions of alienating China complicate their strategic calculations, creating a delicate balancing act in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
Southeast Asian countries, such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia, find themselves navigating this great power competition while attempting to safeguard their national interests. The South China Sea disputes exemplify this challenge, as these nations seek to assert their territorial claims without provoking confrontation with China. The complex dynamics of regional relationships underscore the need for careful diplomacy and dialogue as tensions rise.
The competition between China and the United States is not confined to the Asia-Pacific. Both nations have extended their military engagement to other regions, including the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and even the Atlantic Ocean. China’s participation in naval exercises with Russia in the Mediterranean illustrates its aspirations for global naval power projection, challenging U.S. influence in areas far from its immediate neighborhood.
In addition, the geopolitical landscape is influenced by other ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East. China’s strategic partnership with Russia complicates its relationship with the United States, particularly as Washington leads efforts to support Ukraine militarily and economically. The divergence in approaches to these conflicts further underscores the ideological and geopolitical divides between the two nations.
The implications of this great power competition extend to regional allies, as they navigate the complexities of aligning with one power over the other. Countries in the region face the daunting task of balancing their economic ties with China and their security alliances with the U.S. The increased military activities and strategic posturing by both superpowers create an environment of uncertainty, necessitating careful diplomacy and engagement.