In September, Iranian authorities unveiled a controversial plan to deport 2 million undocumented Afghan migrants over a six-month period. The announcement, following the expulsion of 750,000 undocumented Afghans so far this year, has been framed as a necessary measure to ease the country’s economic and security pressures. At risk of deportation are former officials from the previous Western-backed government and women and girls who face severe restrictions and marginalization, as well as a high risk of poverty, if returned.
Within the region, Iran is not alone in this approach; Pakistan and Turkey have also ramped up the deportation of Afghans in recent years, with devastating humanitarian implications. As millions face being returned to a country gripped by economic hardship and a deepening humanitarian crisis, the consequences are already reverberating across borders.
Iran’s Economic Crisis and Mounting Anti-Afghan Sentiment
Iran has been a longstanding refuge for Afghans fleeing decades of war, famine, and political instability, with deep historical and cultural ties fostering a tradition of cross-border movement. While there is no consensus on the number of Afghans in Iran, it is estimated that Iran hosts more than 6 million Afghans according to Iran’s representative in the U.N. Security Council. While Iran’s approach toward Afghans was once somewhat accommodating, Afghans have long faced the threat of arrest and deportation.
However, the current circumstances are deteriorating fast, with Iran’s capacity and willingness to accommodate Afghans in steady decline. Crippling international sanctions, runaway inflation, and high unemployment have led to severe economic challenges in Iran. These challenges have been accompanied by national narratives that have increasingly portrayed Afghan migrants as contributing to job scarcity, rising living costs, rising crime and putting a strain on public services such as healthcare and education. Anti-Afghan sentiment was further cemented during the 2024 presidential election in June, where candidates across the political spectrum embraced increasingly hardline stances on immigration, blaming Afghans for the country’s social and economic challenges.
Once in power, new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian capitalized on this sentiment, announcing plans in a post on X, formerly Twitter, to close the border to prevent further entry of Afghans, implement stricter regulations on their presence in the country, and negotiate with European states on Afghan migrants, promising to “put Iranians first.” Following this, another Iranian official also announced a plan to construct a four-meter-high concrete wall, along with barbed wire and fencing over a three-year period along its shared borders with Afghanistan. The election saw an surge in populism, with the government fostering an environment where anti-Afghan sentiment was not only tolerated but encouraged. Social media further fueled anti-Afghan rhetoric, with hashtags like “Expulsion of Afghans, a national demand” gaining traction, and played a role in spreading hate speech by calling for deportations.
The Iranian government’s recent announcement of plans to deport 2 million undocumented Afghans is the culmination of the increasing populist response to these economic grievances. Alongside the announcement of the plan, Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni has publicly stated that “all the resources of the Islamic Republic are spent on immigrants,” emphasizing that the country can no longer sustain the Afghan migrant population, connecting mass deportation policy to promises of economic recovery and job opportunities for Iranians.
The Daily Reality of Afghan Migrants in Iran
As a result of the government’s hardline policies and increasing public hostility, Afghan migrants have faced increasing discrimination and violence. In the months leading up to and following the election, instances of abuse and violence in public spaces became increasingly more frequent, and Afghan children were barred from attending schools in some areas. In Bardsir city in Kerman province, bakeries posted signs prohibiting the sale of bread to non-Iranians – a measure not seen before.
Public protests demanding the expulsion of Afghans have become more common, and violence against Afghans – both verbal and physical – has escalated. In some provinces, officials publicly banned the rental of rooms or houses to undocumented Afghans, and many Afghan workers, including those with legal status, have been dismissed from jobs. Due to their irregular status, undocumented Afghans are often relegated to low-paying, labor-intensive jobs, while documented Afghans are legally restricted to working in just three job categories which give them access to 37 job types, limiting their economic opportunities. Testimonies from deported Afghans in Afghanistan reveal a troubling pattern of human rights abuses, including physical and verbal violence, extortion and denial of basic needs such as food and water.
Broader Regional Patterns in Afghan Deportations
Iran is not the only country pursuing mass deportations of Afghan migrants. Prior to Iran’s recent announcement, Pakistan, which has historically hosted the largest number of Afghan migrants, has also taken steps to expel hundreds of thousands of Afghans, citing concerns over national security and economic strain.
Following the crackdown in late 2023, over 722,000 Afghans returned to Afghanistan from Pakistan voluntarily or forcibly between September 15, 2023 and September 16, 2024. While Pakistan insists that the deportation policy is mainly designed to fight terrorism, the deepening economic crisis in the country has also contributed to anti-migrant political sentiment, which has seen public support for deportations. The current economic crisis is one of the country’s worst since its independence in which, the rising prices of food, fuel and power as well as high inflation are adding to public financial burden.
Similarly, Turkey has intensified its efforts to deport Afghans in recent years. As a hosting country and also key transit country for Afghans seeking to enter Europe, Turkey has faced its own political and social tensions related to migration. In 2022, the Turkish government ramped up deportations of Afghans, sending 55,000 Afghans back to Afghanistan in 2022 and continued to do so since. In the last quarter of 2023, Turkey deported more than 3,000 Afghan migrants by plane.
In August 2024, Turkey’s interior minister announced that the country had deported more than 160,000 “irregular migrants” comprising both Afghan and Syrian migrants. A recent investigative report by Lighthouse Reports alleges that the EU has provided Turkey with 213 million euro in funding to construct and maintain approximately 30 removal centers. The investigation further claims that detainees in the removal centers are subjected to unsanitary and overcrowded conditions, abuse and torture. They face significant barriers accessing legal representation, and informants reported being coerced into signing voluntary return documents.
In Europe, Germany deported 28 Afghan nationals in August this year for the first time since the Taliban takeover in 2021. This controversial decision came amid concerns about rising crime rates some politicians have attributed to migrants and also part of broader debates over the country’s migration policies. In parallel, Germany signed an agreement with Uzbekistan in September 2024 on migration issues, potentially opening a pathway for deporting Afghan rejected asylum seekers to third countries, further indication of their commitment to returns.
Afghan Migrants Face Dire Conditions Upon Return
Afghanistan is a country already grappling with severe economic and political instability. Since the takeover in August 2021, Afghanistan has been plunged into a deepening humanitarian crisis, with international aid drastically reduced and basic services such as healthcare and education on the verge of collapse. The arrival of returnees, whether forcibly or voluntarily, in high numbers — many of whom have no homes, jobs, or support networks — will further challenge the country’s fragile economy.
As has been seen by those already deported from Pakistan, returnees face unstable futures, grappling with extreme poverty, limited access to livelihood, shelter and other necessities as well as severe restriction against women. Many also struggle with stress, anxiety and depression upon return. Humanitarian organizations have already observed exacerbating protection risks among returnees as well as the increase pressure on wider communities.
Given migrants are returning to conflict, poverty, and economic instability, many have no choice but to consider re-migration, either back to their previous countries of migration or to new destinations. Data from the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) shows that, even before August 2021, returnees faced challenges such as finding decent work, violence, and limited access to support. In fact, 41 percent of Afghan returnees interviewed by MMC before the Taliban takeover expressed plans to re-migrate due to economic insecurity. With further deteriorations felt since 2021, migration aspirations are likely only to grow despite the fact that regular migration options are extremely scarce and the risks of irregular migration are increasingly high.
Regional Cooperation and International Support Needed
The increased deportation of Afghans by Iran, Pakistan, and other regional countries is worsening Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis and fails to address the complex drivers of displacement — such as conflict, poverty, and lack of basic rights. To break the cycle of displacement, regional cooperation is crucial. Countries including Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey should engage more actively with platforms like the Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees (SSAR), which promotes voluntary repatriation, local integration, and third-country resettlement. A focus on providing legal pathways, work permits, and access to basic services such as education and healthcare can empower Afghans to become more self-sufficient and reduce the need for re-migration.
While international organizations and UN agencies have already called for an immediate halt to deportation plans and advocated for more humane and sustainable responses, the international community must increase support for reintegration programs in Afghanistan and expand resettlement quotas for the most vulnerable populations, such as women and children. By aligning with commitments under the Global Compact on Refugees and responding to calls from UNHCR for greater resettlement opportunities, the international community can help provide Afghan refugees with long-term security and protection while easing pressure on ring countries.